January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[DR(S)NO]

4.5c and 90mm

thank you please

[Mr Maunder]

5.1c and 81mm for me please.

MM

[moorlander]

5.2c and 88mm for me please

[Summer of 95]

4.1 and 115mm

[emmett garland]

2.8 degrees and 84mm please Roger 

[feb1991blizzard]

4.2c and 87mm please.

[Frigid]

3.9C and 55mm. Thanks 

Going for a cooler January, similar to 2019 in where we see a milder period with one cold spell. 

[reef]

Milder and wetter than average:

5.4C and 106mm

[Shaunado]

3.1C and 45.3mm

[Don]

4.9C and 88mm please.  Can't see the first month of 2024 being anything special from a cold perspective.

[Daniel*]

3.8C and 70mm thanks 

[DR(S)NO]

11 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

4.5c and 90mm

thank you please

Sorry Roger

can I reduce this to 3.8c please

thank you

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Can I go with 4.7c and 59mm please ?

Edit 78mm please.

Edited December 31, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[Weather Observer]

4.9c and 65mm for me please.

[davehsug]

4.0C & 45mm please

[Metwatch]

Tricky one to go for, but I think it won't be a particularly cold one, but less wet than December.

4.8C and 74mm.

[noname_weather]

4.7C and 90mm

[Midlands Ice Age]

Might as well stick with my totally wrong guess for this month.....   3.7C please...... and half the rainfall with 53.0mms please.

MIA

[Kentish Man]

3.3C again as per my wildly out December guess! 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Can I go with 4.7c and 59mm please ?

Edit 78mm please.

Can I go with 2.3c and 66mm please.

[Stationary Front]

Thought December was going to be colder last third, so got that very wrong. Going to try again this month with the same thought process- so 3.8 please but drier at 64mm 

[February1978]

4.4c and 71mm please

Goes against recent trends to go below CET average, but if that high pressure stays near UK it will be quite cold, possibly colder later too.

[Norrance]

4.5C and 45mms please

[J10]

5.4c and 100mm

[Roger J Smith]

Welcome to several new or long-absent forecasters, we encourage you to join us again in future contests too.

Table of entries for January 2024

 

CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (Order of entry) _____ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (Order of entry) ____

6.9 __ 80.0 __ stewfox (16) ________________________4.2 __ 87.0 __ feb1991blizzard (37) _______________ 

6.4 __ 95.0 __ Tillys (L1-1) _________________________4.2 __ 80.0 __ Rob79812010 (L1-6) _______________

6.3 __ 40.0 __ syed2878 (19) ______________________ 4.2 __ 74.0 __ rwtwm (L1-9) _____________________ 

6.1 _ 123.0 __ virtualsphere (20) __________________ 4.1 __ 82.0 __ snowray (24) ________________________ 

6.0 __ 95.0 __ The PIT (15) _________________________ 4.1 _ 115.0 __ Summer of 95 (35) _________________

5.8 _ 135.0 __ I remember Atlantic252 ( 2 ) _______ 4.0 __ 65.0 __ climate man (14)  ___________________

5.8 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (22) ____________________ 4.0 __ 70.0 __ weatherforducks (25) _______________

5.6 _ 120.0 __ East Lancs Rain ( 1 ) ________________ 4.0 _ 125.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (29) _______________  

5.6 __ 67.0 __ SteveB (10) _________________________ 4.0 __ 45.0 __ davehsug (45) ________________________

5.6 __ 91.0 __ summer blizzard (27) _______________ 4.0 _ 100.0 __ methuselah (L1-4, 12.5) _____________

5.5 _ 105.0 __ ScottD ( 6 ) __________________________ 3.9 __ 55.0 __ Frigid (38) ____________________________

5.5 _ 102.0 __ summer18 (21) _____________________ 3.9 __ 99.0 __ jonboy (L1-2) _______________________

5.4 __ 96.0 __ Weather26 ( 9 ) ______________________ 3.8 __ 59.0 __ Bobd29 (26) __________________________

5.4 _ 103.6 __ WYorksWeather (30) ________________ 3.8 __ 70.0 __ daniel* (42) __________________________

5.4 __ --- --- __ Typhoon John (31) __________________ 3.8 __ 90.0 __ DR(S)NO (43) ________________________

5.4 _ 106.0 __ Reef (39) ____________________________ 3.8 __ 64.0 __ Stationary Front (51) ________________

5.4 _ 100.0 __ J10 (54) ______________________________ 3.7 __ 56.3 __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) ___________________

5.2 _ 110.0 __ summer8906 (13) ___________________ 3.7 __ 60.0 __ Earthshine (17) _____________________

5.2 __ 88.0 __ moorlander (34) _____________________ 3.7 __ 72.0 __  harveyslugger (23) _________________

5.1 __ 81.0 __Mr Maunder (33) _____________________ 3.7 __ --- --- __ damianslaw (L1-8) ________________

5.0 _ 115.0 __ summer shower (12) ________________ 3.7 __ 52.0 __ seaside60 (L1-10) _________________

5.0 __ 132.0 __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _____________ 3.7 __ 53.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (48) _______________ 

4.9 __ 88.0 __ Don (41) ______________________________ 3.6 __ --- --- __ Summer Sun (28) __________________

4.9 __ 65.0 __ Weather Observer (44) _______________ 3.5 __ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________________

4.8 __ 74.0 __ Metwatch (46) ________________________ 3.3 __ 81.6 __ average of all data (CET 1659-2022, EWP 1766-2022) 

4.7 __ 90.0 __ noname_weather (47) ________________ 3.3 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man (49) __________________

4.7 __ 94.2 __ 1991-2020 average ___________________3.3 __ 75.0 __ john88b ((L1-3) __________________

4.7 __ 94.8 __ 1994-2023 average ___________________ 3.1 __ 45.3 __ Shaunado (40) _____________________ 

4.6 __ 96.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) _________________ 3.1 __ 86.0 __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) ________________

4.5 __ 62.0 __ chilly milly ( 4 ) ________________________ 3.0 __ 76.0 __ mulzy (L1-13) ____________________

4.5 __ 45.0 __ Norrance (53) _________________________ 2.8 __ 50.0 __ Leo97t ( 7 ) _________________________

4.4 __ 93.0 __ 1981-2010 average ___________________ 2.8 __ 84.0 __ Emmett Garland (36) ______________  

4.4 __ 71.0 __ February 1978 (52) ____________________ 2.7 __ 67.0 __ sukayuonsensnow (32) ____________

4.4 __ 88.0 __ jmp223 (L1-5) _______________________ 2.3 __ 66.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (50) __________

4.4 __ 53.0 __ somerset girl (L1-11) ________________ 2.1 __ 84.0 __ Godber 1 (L1-12) __________________

_______________________________________________________ 1.8 __ 62.3 __ Polar Gael (18) _____________________

4.2 __ 81.0 __ consensus _____________________________ 0.7 __ 76.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (11) _____________

 

54 on-time entries  ... 14 entries one day late (includes 2 revised previously on time)

68 entries in total __ median (consensus) 4.2 C 

 

==========================

EWP forecasts in order

135_IRem .. 132_shil^ ..125_Add .. 123_virt .. 120_ELR .. 115_sumsh, sum95 .. 110_sum8906 ..

106_Reef .. 105_ScottD .. 103.6_WYork .. 102_sum18 .. 100_meth, J10 .. 99_jon^

 96_dww,wx26 .. 95_PIT, tilly^ .. 94.8_94-23 .. 94.2_91-20 .. 93.0_81-10 .. 91_sb .. 90_Jeff, DR(S),non ..

 88_moor, Don, jmp223^ .. 87_Feb91 .. 86_LIS^ .. 84_EG, godb^.. 82_snow .. 81.6_alldata .. 81_mrm ..

 80_stew, Rob^ ..  76.6_KW .. 76_mul^ .. 75_j88b^ .. 74_met, rwtwm^ .. 72_harv .. 71_Feb78 .. 70_ducks, dan ..

 67_SteveB, suk .. 66_pSL .. 65_climan, WxOb .. 64_SF .. 62.3_PG .. 62_cm .. 60_Earth ..  59_bob ..

 56.3_RJS .. 55_Frig .. 53_mia,sg^ .. 52_sea^ .. 50_leo .. 45.3_Shaun .. 45_dave, Norr .. 40_syed

 

51 on-time forecasts, plus 12 one day late (^) incl one, previously on time, revised on 1st

63 in total, consensus 81.0 mm

 

<<< LATE FORECASTS are added to tables, and will be on 2nd, 3rd Jan 2024 >>>

Edited February 5 by Roger J Smith