January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[TillyS]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

3.1c to the 20th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
 

So there wasn’t a further dip from yesterday’s nippy initial minima.

All the way up from here I think, fairly relentlessly. It will be interesting to see where this winds up.

[damianslaw]

22 minutes ago, TillyS said:

So there wasn’t a further dip from yesterday’s nippy initial minima.

All the way up from here I think, fairly relentlessly. It will be interesting to see where this winds up.

My hunch is somewhere between 4.8 and 5.6.

[feb1991blizzard]

Sorry Roger - meant last post in strat or mod thread.

[WYorksWeather]

So, based on today's value of 3.1C, and ignoring rounding, here are the averages we need for the next 11 days. Note that if you include rounding, in terms of how these values are displayed, then you can knock a couple of tenths off these as e.g. 4.95C rounds to 5.0C.

To finish at 4.0C: 5.7C

To finish at 4.5C: 7.1C

To finish at 5.0C: 8.5C

To finish at 5.5C: 9.9C

To finish at 6.0C: 11.3C

I think both the lowest and highest of these are now infeasible, so probably a finish in the envelope of 4.5C to 5.5C is likely.

I think the next few days will be close to double digit means at times, but a few cooler / near-normal days being suggested for the last few days, so all to play for depending on whether that happens  or whether we stay very mild rather than just mild.

Really the biggest impact on this compared to expectations is how cold it got during the cold spell, albeit fairly briefly. At the start of the week I was expecting less of a dip and the CET to stay in the mid to upper 3s, which would have opened the door to a finish in the high 5s or even 6s at a push. Now that looks like a very tall order.

I'm still feeling like my guess of 5.4C is in the game, though.

[Roger J Smith]

9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Sorry Roger - meant last post in strat or mod thread.

No worries, answer is, flex of Pacific ridge in N America dislodged extreme cold arctic high into central US, storm Isha formed off coast and had enough energy to blast through block in Europe. That could rebuild during February, especially as pattern change now underway upstream will cut off strong trans-Atlantic jet stream. 

I noted in analysis of mild end of January cases, tendency to return to cold in mid-February in a lot of them. 

Edited January 21 by Roger J Smith

[SLEETY]

chance of a below average month gone again.Not a surprise anymore

[Summer8906]

Last "wintry" January 2013, and before that 2010.

And just four "summery" Julys in the same time frame.

And if you take the 2015 onwards period, it's zero "wintry" Januarys and just two "summery" Julys.

The current climate is just utterly, utterly bland and dreary if you want seasonable weather. Just seems to be non-stop dull and damp and temps varying little between summer and winter. I suspect the max temps this week will be less than 10C lower than a typical week from July 2023.

Edited January 22 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

20 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Last "wintry" January 2013, and before that 2010.

And just four "summery" Julys in the same time frame.

And if you take the 2015 onwards period, it's zero "wintry" Januarys and just two "summery" Julys.

The current climate is just utterly, utterly bland and dreary if you want seasonable weather. Just seems to be non-stop dull and damp and temps varying little between summer and winter. I suspect the max temps this week will be less than 10C lower than a typical week from July 2023.

July 2023 was a particularly poor month though. I don't think we can really say we lack summer-like months over the last couple of years. June 2023, July 2022 and August 2022 makes a strike rate of 3/6 for the last two summers, one of which included the hottest day ever recorded. Believe it or not, over the longer term, most areas of the UK are actually seeing their average sunshine amounts increase.

I would also say that as you say 2023 was a very unseasonal year, with the peak warmth being in June and September, and the core high summer period being very poor.

I think we've just been unlucky that since June, our weather has been predominantly westerly, with very mild south-westerly interludes and north-westerly interludes giving us average to slightly below average temperatures, but usually some sort of westerly dominating. Unfortunately those wind directions produce a lot of cloud, wind and rain. We need wind directions with less oceanic influence, so roughly from north-easterly through southerly, so hopefully we'll get out of this rut and see some more significant spells with those wind directions.

 

[Weather-history]

29 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Last "wintry" January 2013, and before that 2010.

 

Depends on location, I would have said January 2021 was "wintry"  12 days of lying snow under met office rules for that month at my location which is low lying. 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Last "wintry" January 2013, and before that 2010.

And just four "summery" Julys in the same time frame.

And if you take the 2015 onwards period, it's zero "wintry" Januarys and just two "summery" Julys.

The current climate is just utterly, utterly bland and dreary if you want seasonable weather. Just seems to be non-stop dull and damp and temps varying little between summer and winter. I suspect the max temps this week will be less than 10C lower than a typical week from July 2023.

Jan 21 was a great month here.

[kold weather]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Depends on location, I would have said January 2021 was "wintry"  12 days of lying snow under met office rules for that month at my location which is low lying. 

Had a CET of 3.2c, though I do admit down here (i'm a similar location to the poster) it really was no great shakes, though the Jan 21 snow event performed ok locally, and indeed was the last meaningful snow to have fallen here, though we had quite a few slight dustings since.

Regardless, this is another month to add to the above 61-90 bank, 24 out of 25 now, will probably be close to average but on the above side for the 91-20 average.

[summer blizzard]

While not deep, it had repeated frontal snow events and is thus the snowiest winter since 2013.

[cheese]

A lot of snowfalls in recent years have been quite marginal and dependent on elevation, so while Leeds has done fairly well (even here at a modest 85m ASL), further east around York they have done very poorly with little settling snow. 2020-21 was a pretty good winter in general here with some decent falls in January and February.

 

Edited January 22 by cheese

[TillyS]

4 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

 

I think we've just been unlucky that since June, our weather has been predominantly westerly, with very mild south-westerly interludes and north-westerly interludes giving us average to slightly below average temperatures, but usually some sort of westerly dominating. Unfortunately those wind directions produce a lot of cloud, wind and rain.

 

That's not ‘unlucky’  It's the prevailing wind direction for the UK. It’s also what keeps Britain looking green and pleasant, without having to worry about running out of water. It’s a mild climate for its latitude and in a world of ever-rising temperatures we can be grateful that for the most part we are avoiding the extremes, for now.

People should perhaps either stop moaning about the plentiful rainfall or go and live somewhere else, if they can.

Edited January 22 by TillyS

[Snowyowl9]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Jan 21 was a great month here.

Cold week spell last january..midmonth too..

 

[Summer Sun]

3.4c to the 21st

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[TillyS]

Yep up 0.3C over those 24 hours.

The month will go above the January average with Wednesday’s update. Then it’s a relentless rise until the end by the look of it.

[Metwatch]

January 2021 does seem to be forgetten when the last chilly January is brought up, was colder than 2013, and for those who like to compare it to the 61-90 CET average it was 0.6C below it! Decently cold compared to many months in recent years. Third coldest Jan this century. First 10 days quite chilly with the 7th notably cold by day, snow event for many areas on the 21st and 24th further south. The north was especially cold.

UK wide it was the second coldest this century:

Graph here: http://starlingsroost.ddns.net/weather/ukobs/ukgraphs.php?type=monthlyregional&field=year&param=Tmean&region=UK&month=1&anom=

 

Edited January 22 by Metwatch

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 hours ago, TillyS said:

That's not ‘unlucky’  It's the prevailing wind direction for the UK. It’s also what keeps Britain looking green and pleasant, without having to worry about running out of water. It’s a mild climate for its latitude and in a world of ever-rising temperatures we can be grateful that for the most part we are avoiding the extremes, for now.

People should perhaps either stop moaning about the plentiful rainfall or go and live somewhere else, if they can.

I don’t think we’re avoiding the extreme high temperatures anymore are we ?  

Edited January 22 by prolongedSnowLover

[Midlands Ice Age]

For Roger..

I found your data for January end of month rises very interesting.

After seeing the CET graphic above for January, i wondered whether you could possibly do the same for the January warmest last 10 days for the period since 1679.?

Also a graphic of the CET for the 30 year periods showing how they have changed with time.

If too much time taken in producing them then thanks for all the data anyway.

MIA

Edited January 22 by Midlands Ice Age

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another January passes by without being notably cold.  Only January 2010 was significantly (well) below average since 1987.  In fact we have had no January other than 2010 with a CET under 2.5 in the last 37 years.  In recent times we have on odd occasions been a little under the older historical 1961-90 (and even 1951-80) average, in 2021 and 2013, but other than 2010, we have not had another January that could reasonably be described as "significantly cold" since 1987, so the lack of really cold January CETs in the last 37 years must be close to, if not a record.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.4C -1.2C below average. Rainfall 59.6mm 80.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer8906]

6 hours ago, TillyS said:

That's not ‘unlucky’  It's the prevailing wind direction for the UK. It’s also what keeps Britain looking green and pleasant, without having to worry about running out of water. It’s a mild climate for its latitude and in a world of ever-rising temperatures we can be grateful that for the most part we are avoiding the extremes, for now.

People should perhaps either stop moaning about the plentiful rainfall or go and live somewhere else, if they can.

I think it has been unusually Atlantic-dominated for the past 7 months (since June 26) though.

Normally we would get a number of anticyclonic, northerly and easterly interludes and they have been (generally) notable for their absence. We've had just two meaningful two-week breaks in that 7 months, and the last month that could be described as remotely settled was June.

We'll likely have had seven calendar months on the trot with above average rainfall by the end of this month. And seven calendar months on the trot with above average CET and above average rainfall. That isn't normal.

And other climates manage to avoid being an arid desert, basically because they have high-intensity but short-duration rainfall with plenty of dry, settled weather in between.

Edited January 22 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

6 hours ago, TillyS said:

That's not ‘unlucky’  It's the prevailing wind direction for the UK. It’s also what keeps Britain looking green and pleasant, without having to worry about running out of water. It’s a mild climate for its latitude and in a world of ever-rising temperatures we can be grateful that for the most part we are avoiding the extremes, for now.

People should perhaps either stop moaning about the plentiful rainfall or go and live somewhere else, if they can.

Sorry, I probably didn't make my post clear enough. I'm not saying I'd prefer the other extreme, i.e. lots of blazing hot southerlies in summer and freezing cold easterlies in winter all the time. Just saying that for the last few months we seem to have had a disproportionate amount even compared to what is 'normal' for the UK.

[WYorksWeather]

In terms of daily figures, yesterday's mean was 7.7C.

As a reminder from my earlier calculations as a rough guide, the required average for the last 11 days is:

To finish at 4.0C: 5.7C

To finish at 4.5C: 7.1C

To finish at 5.0C: 8.5C

To finish at 5.5C: 9.9C

To finish at 6.0C: 11.3C

Will be interesting to continue tracking these. Higher scenarios will probably require a few double-digit means, lower scenarios will require a period of merely mild rather than exceptionally mild temperatures after the 26th/27th.