January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[TillyS]

Today’s UK date record for 29/1 is 15.5C which may fall, although we lose the far north Foehn effect because of colder weather there. Somewhere like Norfolk / Lincolnshire might take the record today.

I still can’t quite believe 19.6C in January.

[reef]

  @TillyS I don't think those areas will be much above 12C today. The cold front is much further south than forecast. We were supposed to be under the milder air here, but instead the front is positioned right over us and its 7C.

[Summer Sun]

4.5c to the 27th

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 4.5C bang on average. Rainfall 69.1mm 92.9% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

Quite likely a finish around 5 to 5.2 degrees I think.. 

[Roger J Smith]

Values for the 28th were not record breakers, max came closest (11.9), min was only 3.0 and mean 7.4. 

I would have thought a "UK record" would simply be highest value in UK and one place not getting as warm would be irrelevant to setting a record? These CET records are on the other hand averages for three locations minus 0.2 to account for urban effects. 

Given that we are at 4.5 after 28 days (previous report says 27 days but it is actually 28 days), a mean of 10 for last three days would give an outcome of 5.0. (unless 4.5 is rounded down from 4.53 or 4.54, then 10.0 gives 5.1, Today looks fairly close to 9, although it could be held down a bit if Stonyhurst is lower than places nearby (I don't see it on maps, the other two CET locations are on meteociel maps). 

[Metwatch]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Quite likely a finish around 5 to 5.2 degrees I think.. 

I think 4.8 - 4.9, very small chance 5.0.

[Don]

53 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I think 4.8 - 4.9, very small chance 5.0.

Come on 4.9!! 

[damianslaw]

Perhaps low 5s might be a tall order. 

[Daniel*]

Looks like a frosty end to January in CET zone.

 

[Roger J Smith]

As EWP is now posted as 97.2 mm, an updated look at final EWP scoring, in order of total points. 

Ranks for January can be seen beside predictions. Ranks are scoring levels before late penalties, so in a few cases actual scoring ranks are not in same order.  

(note: missed mo. error is consensus + 5 in italics _ it is 21.2 mm for Jan ... in contest year, a maximum of five missed mo's are acceptable before ranking discontinued)

 

Updated scoring for EWP DEC 2023 - JAN 2024

final scoring based on 97.2  mm

 

Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _  Jan_Dec_TOTAL ___ Jan _Dec __ Avg

now_(Dec)_fcst (rank) _ FORECASTER (Order of entry) _EWP scoring (pts) _ errors__ avg 2mo  (Ranks, now and after Dec)

_01 _ 08 ___100.0 (07) __ J 10 ( 54 ) __________________ 9.12_8.67__17.79 ____2.8_41.3__22.05 mm _ 3_ (8.)

_02 _ 04 ___ 90.0 (13) __ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____ 8.22_9.43__17.65 ___ 7.2_32.3__19.75 mm _ 1_ (4) 

_03 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ Don ( 41 ) __________________ 7.47_9.62__17.09 ___ 9.2_31.3__20.25 mm _ 2 _(3)

_04 _ 11 ___103.6 (10) __ WYorksWeather ( 30 ) _____ 8.56_8.10__16.66 ___ 6.4_46.3__26.35 mm _ 7_ (11)

(4.7) _(17.6)_ 94.8 (5.2) ___ 1994-2023 average _____ 9.33_6.86__16.19 ___ 2.4_55.0__28.70 mm _8.8_(17.6)

_05 _ 14 ___ 90.0 (11) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________8.38_7.53 __15.91 ___ 7.2_51.3__29.25 mm _ 9_(t14)

(5.4)(19.1) __94.2 (5.8) ___1991-2020 average _______9.23_6.55__15.78____ 3.0_57.7__30.35 mm_ 9.3_ (19.1)

_06 _ 09 ____ 87.0 (19) __ Feb1991blizzard ( 37 ) ____ 7.06_8.48__ 15.54___10.2_42.3__26.25 mm _ 6_ (9)

_07 _ 06 ___ 84.0 (23) __ godber 1 (L1-12) ____________6.20^9.14__15.34 ___13.2_37.3__25.25 mm _ 4_ (t5)

_08 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (24) __ snowray ( 24 ) ______________ 6.26_8.86__15.12___ 15.2_39.8__27.50 mm _ 8_ (7) 

(8.7)(22.4)__ 93.0 (7.5)____1981-2010 average ______ 8.96_5.90__14.86 ___ 4.2_63.9__34.05 mm _9.9_ (22.4)

_09 _ 20 ___ 90.0 (12) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) ______________ 8.30_6.38__14.68 ___ 7.2_61.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (20) 

_10 _ 30 ___ 96.0 (02) __ Weather26 ( 9 ) _____________ 9.92_4.37__14.29 ___ 1.2_76.3__38.75 mm_ 17_ (30) 

_11 _ 01 ___123.0 (37) __ virtualsphere ( 20 ) ________ 4.24_10.00_14.24 ___ 25.8_25.3__25.55 mm _ 5 _(1) 

_12 _ 27 ___100.0 (06) __ methuselah (12.5) _________ 9.20_4.98__14.18 ___ 2.8_73.3__38.05 mm _16_ (t27) 

_13 _ 28 ___102.0 (08) __ summer18 ( 21 ) ___________ 8.88_4.88__13.76 ___ 4.8_73.3__39.05 mm_ 18_ (t27) 

_14 _ 19 ___ 86.0 (20) __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) ___________6.60^6.58__13.18 ___11.2_57.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (19) 

_15 _ 24 ___ 88.0 (16) __ moorlander ( 34 ) ___________7.55_5.58__13.13____ 9.2_65.3__37.25 mm_ 15_ (24) 

_16 _ 36 ___ 95.0 (04) __ The PIT ( 15 ) ________________9.52_3.41__12.93 ____2.2_81.3__41.75 mm_t23_ (t34)    

_17 _ 05 ___ 66.0 (44) __ prolongedSnowLover ( 50 )__3.06_9.24__12.30 ___ 31.2_37.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (t5) 

_18 _ 29 ___106.0 (15) __ Reef ( 39 ) __________________ 7.76_4.56__12.32____ 8.8_74.3__41.55 mm_ 22_ (29)    

_19 _ 12 ___ 71.0 (38) __ February1978 ( 52 ) __________4.02_7.91__11.93___ 26.2_47.3__36.75 mm_ 14_ (12)  

(19.9)(26.5)_ 81.6 (24.4)__average of all data (CET, EWP)_6.20_5.09_11.29___ 15.6_72.2__43.70 mm_27.8_(26.5) 

_20 _ 43 ___ 99.0 (03) __ jonboy (L1-2) _________________9.38^1.90 _11.28 ____ 1.8_ 90.3__46.05 mm_ 31_ (43)           

_21 _ 40 ___ 91.0 (9) ___ summer blizzard ( 27 ) _______8.71_2.47__11.18 ___ 6.2_87.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (40)             

_22 _ 02 ___ 55.0 (55) __ Frigid ( 38 ) __________________ 1.30_9.81__11.11 ____42.2_26.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (2) 

(22.4)(27)___ 81.0 (25) __ Consensus_________________ 6.10_4.98__11.08 ___ 16.2_73.3__44.75 mm_29.0_(t27) 

_23 _ 15 ___125.0 (41) __Addicks Fan 1981 ( 29 ) _____ 3.60_7.43__11.03____27.8_51.3__39.55 mm _ 20_ (t14)            

_24 _ 49 ___ 96.0 (01) __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ________10.00_0.76__10.76 ___ 1.2_102.3__51.75 mm_t43_(49)      

_25 _ 33 ___ 84.0 (22) __ Emmett Garland ( 36 ) _______6.58_3.89__10.47 ___ 13.2_80.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (t32)        

_26 _ 10 ___ 62.0 (50) __ chilly milly ( 4 ) _______________2.10_8.29__10.39 ___35.2_43.3__39.25 mm_ 19_ (10) 

_27 _ 22 ___ 74.0 (35) __ rwtwm (L1-9) ________________ 4.28^5.98__10.26 ___ 23.2_63.3__43.25 mm_  26_ (22)          

_28 _ 25 ___ 74.0 (34) __ Metwatch ( 46 ) ______________ 4.66_5.38__10.04 ___ 23.2_66.3__ 44.75 mm_ 29_ (25)           

_29 _ 26 ___ 76.0 (31) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ________________ 4.84^5.18__10.02 ___ 21.2_71.3__46.25 mm_ 32_ (26)              

_30 _ 13 ___135.0 (52) __ I remember Atlantic252( 2 ) _ 1.84_7.72__ 9.56 ____37.8_49.3__43.55 mm_ 27_ (13) 

_31 _ --- ___ 95.0 (05) __ Tillys ( L1-1 ) __________________ 9.14^ -- --_ 9.14 _____ 2.2_78.3__ 40.25 mm _21_ (---)    

_32 _ 38 ___ 80.0 (26) __ stewfox ( 16 ) ________________ 5.94_2.85__8.79 ___ 17.2_86.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t38.)               

_33 _ 34 ___ 75.0 (32) __ John88b (L1-3) _______________4.68^3.61__8.29 ___ 22.2_81.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t34)              

_34 _ 23 ___ 62.3 (48) __ Polar Gael ( 18 ) _____________ 2.42_5.78__ 8.20 ___ 34.9_64.8__49.85 mm _39_(23)             

_35 _ --- ___105.0 (14) __ ScottD ( 6 ) ___________________7.92 _ -- --_ 7.92 ____ 7.8_78.3__ 43.05 mm _ 25_ (---)    

_36_ 18 ___ 53.0 (56) __ Midlands Ice Age ( 48 ) _______1.14_6.77__7.91 ___ 44.2_56.3__50.25 mm_ 40_(18.)                

_37 _ 44 ___ 81.0 (25) __Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ___________ 6.10_1.71 __ 7.81 __ 16.2_94.3__55.25 mm_t50_(44)             

_38 _ 16 ___ 52.0 (58) __ seaside60 (L1-10) ___________ 0.58^7.03^_7.61 ____45.2_51.3__48.25 mm _ 37_(t14)             

_39 _ 17 ___ 45.0 (61) __ davehsug ( 45 ) _____________ 0.40_6.96__ 7.36 ____ 52.2_53.3__52.75 mm_t47_(17)             

_40 _ --- ___ 88.0 (18) __ jmp223 (L1-5) _______________ 7.08^_-- --__ 7.08 ____ 9.2_78.3__ 43.75 mm _ 28_( --- ) 

_41 _ 39 ___ 70.0 (40) __ daniel* ( 42 ) ________________ 3.78_2.75__6.53 ____27.2_86.3__ 56.75 mm_ 53_(t38.)          

_42 _ --- ___110.0 (21) __summer8906 ( 13 )  __________ 6.40 _ -- --_ 6.40 ____12.8_78.3__45.55 mm_ 30_ (---)               

_43 _ 50 ___115.0 (28) __ summer shower ( 12 ) ______ 5.68_0.57__ 6.25 ___ 17.8_105.3_61.55 mm_ 57_(50) 

_44 _ 21 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ___________ -- -- _6.18__ 6.18 ___ 21.2_62.3__41.75 mm _t23_ (21)               

_45 _ 31 ___ 59.0 (53) __ Bobd29 ( 26 ) _______________ 1.62_4.18 __5.80 ___38.2_78.3__58.25 mm _54_(31)           

_46 _ --- ___115.0 (29) __ summer of 95 ( 35 ) ________ 5.60_ -- -- __ 5.60 ____17.8_78.3__48.05 mm_ 36_(---)                   

_47 _ 35 ___ 60.0 (51) __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ____________ 1.94_3.51__ 5.45 ___37.2_81.3__59.25 mm _56_(t34) 

_48 _ --- ___ 80.0 (27) ___Rob79812010 (L1-6) ________ 5.56 _-- --_ 5.52 ____17.2_78.3__47.75 mm _35_(---)                  

_49 _ --- ___ 76.6 (30) __KirkcaldyWeather ( 11 ) ______ 5.30 _-- --_ 5.30 ____20.6_78.3__49.45 mm _38_(---)                 

_50 _ 42 ___ 65.0 (46) __ Weather Observer ( 44 ) ____ 2.82_2.18__5.00 ___ 32.2_89.3__58.75 mm _55_(t41)             

_51 _ --- ___120.0 (33) __EastLancsRain ( 1 ) __________ 4.88 _-- --__ 4.88 ____22.8_78.3__ 50.55 mm_ 41_( --- )                   

_52 _ 47 ___ 67.0 (42) __ SteveB ( 10 ) ________________ 3.38_1.14__4.52 ____30.2_98.3__64.25 mm_t58_(47) 

_53 _ (---) __ 72.0 (36) __  harveyslugger ( 23 ) ________ 4.34_ ---- __ 4.34 ___ 25.2_ 78.3__51.75 mm_t43_(---)                 

_54 _ 32 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ( --- ) _______________ -- -- _3.99__3.99 ___ 21.2 _80.3__50.75 mm_ 42_(t32)                

_55 _ 46 ___ 64.0 (47) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____ 2.58_1.33__3.91 ___ 33.2_97.3__65.25 mm_ 60_(46) 

_56 _ --- ___ 70.0 (39) __ weatherforducks ( 25 ) _____ 3.86_ -- --__ 3.86 ____27.2_78.3__52.75 mm_t47_(---)                 

_57_ 37 ___ 53.0 (57) __ Somerset girl (L1-11) _______ 0.76^3.04__3.80 ___ 44.2_84.3__64.25 mm_t58_(37) 

_58 _ --- ___ 67.0 (43) __sukayuonsensnow ( 32 ) ____ 3.30 _-- --_ 3.30 ____ 30.2_78.3__54.25 mm_ 49_(---)              

_59 _ 45 ___ 56.3 (54) __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) __________ 1.46_1.52__2.98 ___ 40.9_96.6__68.75 mm_ 63_(45)

_60 _ --- ____ 65.0 (45) __ Climate Man ( 14 ) _________ 2.90_ --- __ 2.90 ___ 32.2_78.3__55.25 mm_t50_(---)             

_61 _ 51 ___132.0 (49) __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _______2.02^0.38__2.40 ___ 34.8_110.3_ 72.55 mm _64_(51) 

_62 _ 41 ___ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) ________________ -- --_ 2.28 __ 2.28 ___ 21.2_89.3__55.25 mm_t50_(t41)                  

_63 _ 48 ___ 50.0 (59) __ Leo97t ( 26 ) _______________ 0.66_0.95__1.61 ___ 47.2_101.3_74.25 mm_ 65_(48.) 

_64 _ --- ___ 45.3 (60) __ Shaunado ( 6 ) _____________ 0.50_--- ---_0.50 ____51.9_78.3__65.10 mm_ 61_(---) 

_65 _ --- ___ 45.0 (62) __ Norrance ( 53 ) ____________ 0.30 _ -- --_0.30 ____52.2_78.3__65.25 mm_ 62_(---)  

_66 _ 52 ___ 40.0 (63) __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ____________0.00_0.19__0.19 ____57.2_111.3_84.25 mm_ 67_(52)  

_67 _ 53 ___ -- --- ( --- ) __ Neil N ( --- )  _______________----  0.00 __ 0.00 ___ 21.2_140.3__80.75 mm_ 66_(53) 

 

note: ranks for error are in brackets after average EWP error. ... EWP scores affected by late penalties are shown with ^ symbol. If rank is pushed down, this is indicated by "level" which will also be reflected in error rank (those are not adjusted for late days). Error ranks are also tied for entries in different order of entry. 

also note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. 

 

 

Edited March 8 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

4.6c to the 28th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[feb1991blizzard]

  @Summer Sun

It says its up until 29th.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Dancerwithwings]

With tonight’s temps being in the minus and even the last day of January is hardly a mild one, I can’t see it finishing anywhere near 5c 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.6C +0.1C above average. Rainfall 75.6mm 101.6% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Looking back at tables of high CET averages for second half of January and 21-31 January posted around 18 Jan, looks like this one could end up barely inside top ten of 21-31 Jan, and just outside top thirty of second halves. I would currently estimate about 7.5 to 7.6 for 21-31 and 5.7 for 17-31, or 5.5 for 16-31. It would be broadly similar to 1903 or 2016. Currently average is 7.78 for 21-29 Jan. 

Now looking at 4.7 or 4.8 as likely outcome for CET. In recent decades, quite a normal January except three intervals all considerably different from the mean. 

[damianslaw]

Not quite as mild as I was saying.. I think I was thinking there are more days left.. alas perhaps a 4.8 finish..Only a little above average, indeed near average compared to recent means. 

[Roger J Smith]

CET and EWP ranks (with best combined) 

_ preliminary based on 4.7 C and 102 mm _ EWP to be adjusted 2 Feb

Note: ranks are not adjusted in CET for late penalties, as there are a lot this month.

The three recent averages were all between first and second in forecasters' best combined total ranks. Consensus tied the 14th best combined of forecasters. Top 30 best combined forecasters are identified. 

Table will be adjusted 1st-2nd as CET, EWP data confirmed. 

 

Ranks __ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (Order of entry) ___ Best combined info __ (top 30 identified)

 

_01_13 __4.7 __ 90.0 __ noname_weather (47) ___________14 __ 2nd best combined

_01_05 __4.7 __ 94.8 __ 1994-2023 average ______________ 06 ___ (2nd -a) ... recent averages did well

_01_06 __4.7 __ 94.2 __ 1991-2020 average ______________ 07 ___ (2nd -b) 3 recent averages shown 2nd-a,b

_02_01 __4.6 __ 96.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ____________ 03 ___ best combined

_03_34 __4.8 __ 74.0 __ Metwatch (46) ____________________ 37 ___13th best combined

_04_49 __4.5 __ 62.0 __ chilly milly ( 4 ) ____________________53 __ t25th best combined  

_05_17 __4.9 __ 88.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 22 ___ 3rd best combined

_06_46 __4.9 __ 65.0 __ Weather Observer (44) ___________ 52 ___ 24th best combined  

_07_62 __4.5 __ 45.0 __ Norrance (53) _____________________69

_08_28 __5.0 _ 115.0 __ summer shower (12) _____________ 36 ___12th best combined

_09_38 __4.4 __ 71.0 __ February 1978 (52) ________________47___ 20th best combined

_10_18 __4.4 __ 88.0 __ jmp223 (L1-5) _____________________28 ___ 5th best combined

_11_57 __4.4 __ 53.0 __ somerset girl (L1-11) ______________68

_12_50 __5.0 __132.0 __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _____________62 ___t29th best combined

_08_06 __4.4 __ 93.0 __ 1981-2010 average _______________14 __ (2nd-3rd) 

_13_25 __5.1 __ 81.0 __ Mr Maunder (33) _________________ 38 ___ 14th best combined 

_14_20 __5.2 _ 110.0 __ summer8906 (13) ________________ 34 ___ 7th best combined 

_15_17 __5.2 __ 88.0 __ moorlander (34) __________________ 32 ___ 6th best combined

_16_19 __4.2 __ 87.0 __ feb1991blizzard (37) ______________35 ___t8th best combined 

_17_27 __4.2 __ 80.0 __ Rob79812010 (L1-6) ______________ 44 ___t17th best combined

_18_35 __4.2 __ 74.0 __ rwtwm (L1-9) _____________________ 53 ___t25th best combined  

_14_25 __4.2 __ 81.0 __ consensus ________________________39 ___ (15th) 

_19_24 __4.1 __ 82.0 __ snowray (24) ______________________43 ___16th best combined

_20_29 __4.1 _ 115.0 __ Summer of 95 (35) ________________49 ___t21st best combined 

_21_02 __5.4 __ 96.0 __ Weather26 ( 9 ) ____________________23 ___ 4th best combined  

_22_45 __4.0 __ 65.0 __ climate man (14)  __________________67 

_23_40 __4.0 __ 70.0 __ weatherforducks (25) _____________ 63

_24_41 __4.0 _ 125.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (29) _____________65 

_25_10 __5.4 _ 103.6 __ WYorksWeather (30) ______________35 ___t8th best combined 

_26_----__5.4 __ --- --- __ Typhoon John (31) _________________ ----

_27_15 __5.4 _ 106.0 __ Reef (39) __________________________42___ 15th best combined 

_28_61 __4.0 __ 45.0 __ davehsug (45) _____________________89

_29_06 __4.0 _ 100.0 __ methuselah (L1-4, 12.5) __________ 35 ___t8th best combined

_30_55 __3.9 __ 55.0 __ Frigid (38) _________________________ 85

_31_04 __3.9 __ 99.0 __ jonboy (L1-2) ______________________35 ___t8th best combined 

_32_32 __5.6 _ 120.0 __ East Lancs Rain ( 1 ) ______________ 64 

_33_42 __5.6 __ 67.0 __ SteveB (10) ________________________75 

_34_53 __3.8 __ 59.0 __ Bobd29 (26) _______________________87

_35_09 __5.6 __ 91.0 __ summer blizzard (27) _____________ 44 ___t17th best combined               

_36_40 __3.8 __ 70.0 __ daniel* (42) _______________________ 76  

_37_12 __3.8 __ 90.0 __ DR(S)NO (43) ______________________49___ t21st best combined 

_38_47 __3.8 __ 64.0 __ Stationary Front (51) ______________85

_39_07 __5.4 _ 100.0 __ J10 (54) ____________________________46___19th best combined 

_40_54 __3.7 __ 56.3 __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) _________________ 94

_41_14 __5.5 _ 105.0 __ ScottD ( 6 ) ________________________ 55___t27th best combined

_42_51 __3.7 __ 60.0 __ Earthshine (17) ____________________ 93

_43_08 __5.5 _ 102.0 __ summer18 (21) ___________________ 51___ 23rd best combined 

_44_36 __3.7 __ 72.0 __  harveyslugger (23) _______________ 80 

_45_----__3.7 __ --- --- __ damianslaw (L1-8) _______________ ----

_46_58 __3.7 __ 52.0 __ seaside60 (L1-10) ________________ 104

_47_56 __3.7 __ 53.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (48) ____________ 103

_48_52 __5.8 _ 135.0 __ I remember Atlantic252 ( 2 ) _____ 100  

_49_----__5.8 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (22) ___________________ ----

 _50_----__3.6 __ --- --- __ Summer Sun (28) ________________ ----

_51_11 __3.5 __ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( 8 ) __________________________ 62 ___t29th best combined

_52_03 __6.0 __ 95.0 __ The PIT (15) ________________________55 ___t27th best combined 

_53_37 __6.1 _ 123.0 __ virtualsphere (20) _________________ 90

_54_----__3.3 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man (49) __________________ ----

_55_33 __3.3 __ 75.0 __ john88b ((L1-3) ____________________ 88 

_53_26 __3.3 __ 81.6 __ average of all data _________________79 

_56_63 __6.3 __ 40.0 __ syed2878 (19) ____________________ 119

_57_60 __3.1 __ 45.3 __ Shaunado (40) ____________________117

_58_21 __3.1 __ 86.0 __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) _________________ 79 

_59_05 __6.4 __ 95.0 __ Tillys (L1-1) ________________________ 64

_60_31 __3.0 __ 76.0 __ mulzy (L1-13) ______________________ 91 

_61_59 __2.8 __ 50.0 __ Leo97t ( 7 ) _______________________ 120

_62_22 __2.8 __ 84.0 __ Emmett Garland (36) ______________ 84 

_63_43 __2.7 __ 67.0 __ sukayuonsensnow (32) ___________106

_64_26 __6.9 __ 80.0 __ stewfox (16) _______________________ 90

_65_44 __2.3 __ 66.0 __ prolongedSnowLover (50) ________ 109 

_66_23 __2.1 __ 84.0 __ Godber 1 (L1-12) __________________ 89

_67_48 __1.8 __ 62.3 __ Polar Gael (18) ___________________ 115

_68_30 __0.7 __ 76.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (11) ____________ 98 

==========================

EWP forecasts in order

135_IRem .. 132_shil^ ..125_Add .. 123_virt .. 120_ELR .. 115_sumsh, sum95 .. 110_sum8906 ..

106_Reef .. 105_ScottD .. 103.6_WYork .. 102_sum18 .. 100_meth, J10 .. 99_jon^

 96_dww,wx26 .. 95_PIT, tilly^ .. 94.8_94-23 .. 94.2_91-20 .. 93.0_81-10 .. 91_sb .. 90_Jeff, DR(S),non ..

 88_moor, Don, jmp223^ .. 87_Feb91 .. 86_LIS^ .. 84_EG, godb^.. 82_snow .. 81.6_alldata .. 81_mrm ..

 80_stew, Rob^ ..  76.6_KW .. 76_mul^ .. 75_j88b^ .. 74_met, rwtwm^ .. 72_harv .. 71_Feb78 .. 70_ducks, dan ..

 67_SteveB, suk .. 66_pSL .. 65_climan, WxOb .. 64_SF .. 62.3_PG .. 62_cm .. 60_Earth ..  59_bob ..

 56.3_RJS .. 55_Frig .. 53_mia,sg^ .. 52_sea^ .. 50_leo .. 45.3_Shaun .. 45_dave, Norr .. 40_syed

(note, methuselah on time for EWP as only CET changed after deadline, EWP order of entry 12.5)

(one other change in CET after deadline had no EWP forecast attached)

(63 EWP forecasts in total)

(EWP ranks to be adjusted, tied values using 102.0 are ranked from high to low in anticipation of sign error deductions, but exact value could be quite different anyway)

Edited February 5 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

 ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Quote business is too complex now, but I just reminded myself of your late change from 4.7 to 2.3 C. Oops. 

In table above, when I mentioned two "late" changes (methuselah went from 6.0 to 4.0 on 1st which worked out a bit better), I believe I was recalling yours which was actually late in the "on time" period, not really late, as I can't find another one, going off memory is not always a good idea. It's also possible one of the late entries posted on 1st January revised an earlier post without drawing attention to it, and I've forgotten which one it was (so yours would perhaps be a third case). 

Anyway, several others revised on last day too, not sure how many gained any points. DR(S)NO went from 4.5 to 3.8, for example. 

I made no revisions but sucked (3.7) from an earlier starting point.

Well it's all in fun, right? 

All of the above will be adjusted as needed in next 2-3 days. 

Edited January 31 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker will be 95 mm plus whatever falls today (in northern areas). It was 95 mm after 29th and last 24h largely dry. 

Looks like a band of very strong winds and squally showers will affect NI, sw Scotland, and nw England today, but it will weaken later as it reaches CET zone. When we get a CET update today (for 30 days) it's not likely to move much if at all, and today's average could be held down by earlier cold readings before it began to rise overnight, so looks to be either 4.6 or 4.7 as likely outcomes. 

Are there wind warnings out for northeast England, possible lee wave situation setting up? 

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 30th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.7C +0.2C above average. Rainfall 75.6mm 101.6% of the monthly average.

4.7C will be our final figure just waiting for tonight's rainfall to push rainfall a wee bit.

[Summer8906]

 Roger J Smith I did think that the last few days were nowhere near as mild as predicted, and it does look like the CET will end up a bit lower than predicted around 10 days ago. Most days from Fri have "felt" slightly chilly though I understand at the weekend this was due to very dry air as it was around 10C or so. The weather reports in my area yesterday and today were suggesting 8-9C though, barely above average.

It was very mild and humid from around the 21st-25th but since then, it hasn't felt noteworthily so.

Edited January 31 by Summer8906

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I did think that the last few days were nowhere near as mild as predicted,

Not often we can say that these days!

[Metwatch]

CET has come out at 4.7C, looks like I was 0.1C too high!

Noname_weather got it bang on.

The month has ended up right on the 1991-2020 average.

Edited February 1 by Metwatch