January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests

[WYorksWeather]

21st-31st required averages:

To finish at 4.0C: 5.7C

To finish at 4.5C: 7.1C

To finish at 5.0C: 8.5C

To finish at 5.5C: 9.9C

To finish at 6.0C: 11.3C

Daily figures, from 21st

7.9, 8.5, 8.8, 8.4, 8.1

Average so far: 8.3C

I think my guess is probably homing in on the low 5s now. I'll take a guess that the final outcome will be 5.1C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.2C -0.4C below average. Rainfall 68.4mm 91.9% of the monthly average.

Local forecast gives us an 4.8C ending point so probably be between 4.6C and 5C.

[damianslaw]

This January reminiscent of December 2022 to an extent, the cold more potent in Dec 2022, but the timeline switch from cold to very mild and degree of mildness very comparable, Dec 2022 19th onwards.. Jan 2024 20th onwards and likely to months end.

 

[Scorcher]

  @damianslaw It hasn't been exceptionally cold at any stage though. No ice days here or anywhere close in the end. A couple of notably cold nights but other than that nothing particularly memorable.

December 2022 was quite memorable and it was exceptionally cold for a while.

It was 15.4C here the other day so you could argue the mild weather has been more notable. 

[damianslaw]

  @Scorcher Granted last week's cold spell was much briefer than December 2022, and I am probably reflecting on conditions in north half of UK, a line from Morecambe Bay to Teeside, we managed three ice days and it was every bit as cold as Dec 22 here, just shorter in duration, further south it wasn't.. I should have emphasised this. 

Edited January 26 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

4.3c to the 25th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Metwatch]

Looks like December and January CET combined will end up around 6°C.

Winter CET averages:

1961-1990: 4.0°C

1981-2010: 4.4°C

1991-2020: 4.8°C

 

So for this winter to have the same CET as winter average of 91-20, February will have to be 2.4°C.

To get down to the 81-10 average, February will need to be 1.2°C

To get down to the 61-90 average, February will need to come out at 0.0°C, if i've calculated that all correctly.

So unless we're getting a February 1991 or 1986 repeat next month, no way this winter will be near any of those averages

A milder than average winter is very likely now.

For this winter to be record breakingly mild, February CET would have to be around 8.5-8.6°C! A February CET of 6.3°C would be enough to make this winter into the top 10 mildest since records began in 1659. And, 3-4 winters this century alone would still be milder if this winter came out at 6.1°C!

Top 20 mildest winters in the CET series:

Edited January 27 by Metwatch

[reef]

  @Metwatch Five of the last ten winters in the top 15 there. Shows how depressingly mild it has become.

[cheese]

3 entries from the 90s also, alongside 1989. Shows nicely how the current warming started back in the late 80s (with the winter of 87-88 being notably mild).

Edited January 27 by cheese

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

Looks like December and January CET combined will end up around 6°C.

Winter CET averages:

1961-1990: 4.0°C

1981-2010: 4.4°C

1991-2020: 4.8°C

 

So for this winter to have the same CET as winter average of 91-20, February will have to be 2.4°C.

To get down to the 81-10 average, February will need to be 1.2°C

To get down to the 61-90 average, February will need to come out at 0.0°C, if i've calculated that all correctly.

Assuming your figures end up accurate, to finish below any of those averages would obviously require February to be colder than January. This last happened in 2018 (when March was also colder than January!). Before that, it also happened in 2016 and 2015.

A 2018-like February still wouldn't quite be cold enough (3.1C CET), but it would if the BFTE had been mostly contained within February, i.e. had come along a week or so earlier.

That is the only recent precedent I can think of that if repeated today at the right time could give us a sufficiently cold February to allow a below-average month on 1991-2020.

The others are essentially no chance - the first few days of February already look very mild, so you're probably looking at needing a sub-zero average after the first four days.

[Snowyowl9]

  @Scorcher It was 15.4C here the other day so you could argue the mild weather has been more notable. 

 

Not very warm last night under subtropical upper air..3.5c and 5.2c now an inversion..

 

[Summer Sun]

4.4c to the 26th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[TillyS]

I think the maximum date record has fallen today? @Roger J Smith

Looks like the month may finish close to 5C, which would be 1.2C above the average or officially in the ‘well above average’ category.

A month with one notably cold spell.

[Scorcher]

  @Snowyowl9 Not sure how that's relevant to my point at all? It certainly wasn't cold last night.

It's pretty normal for higher uppers not to be reflected at the surface in winter.

And the all time UK record for January has just gone in Scotland...

Edited January 28 by Scorcher

[WYorksWeather]

17 minutes ago, TillyS said:

Looks like the month may finish close to 5C, which would be 1.2C above the average or officially in the ‘well above average’ category.

A month with one notably cold spell.

Is there an official definition of that? That sounds a bit low of a threshold for well above average. That would normally make me think 2C+, and 3C+ for exceptionally mild. 1C above average I would call mild, and anything less than that but above 0.5C I'd call above average, and below that is near-normal.

[WYorksWeather]

Just looking at UKV from this morning - looks like temperatures will probably average something like 8-9C for the next three or four days. Probably enough to raise the CET into the very high 4s or low 5s. With a couple of colder nights recently, I'll bet on a final finish at 4.9C. Quite a bit lower than I expected a week or so ago.

[Scorcher]

  @WYorksWeather and a lot higher than I and many of us expected 2 or 3 weeks back.

[TillyS]

  @WYorksWeather The Met Office have hitherto used ‘Well above average’ for a month of >1C, or ‘Well below average’ for a month of <1C

[WYorksWeather]

Just now, Scorcher said:

and a lot higher than I and many of us expected 2 or 3 weeks back.

To be fair, I was always feeling very confident that the mild weather would return. There was a very robust signal for the cold to end around the 20th, and the key feature of recent winters is that when it goes mild, it often goes 'silly mild' as another poster said. It doesn't take that many days with a daily mean around 8C to cancel out a cold spell.

[WYorksWeather]

10 minutes ago, TillyS said:

The Met Office have hitherto used ‘Well above average’ for a month of >1C, or ‘Well below average’ for a month of <1C

I suppose well above average does fit as well. Again, probably a shifting expectations thing on my part. In short, because the expectation is that every month now will be at least 0.5C-1C above average, calling 1C well above average feels a bit ridiculous, but you're right in that it is accurate. For a month to actually 'feel' exceptional it usually has to be around 2C above 1961-1990 now.

[Metwatch]

48 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

 In short, because the expectation is that every month now will be at least 0.5C-1C above average, calling 1C well above average feels a bit ridiculous, but you're right in that it is accurate. For a month to actually 'feel' exceptional it usually has to be around 2C above 1961-1990 now.

Although month's that are 1C above the 1961-1990 average might be "well above normal" they would defintely not be percieved as mild or warm for sure, which is what climate change has done with regards to expectations.

All the averages here for CET, feel free for anyone to save I find it's very useful. The most recent one of 91-2020 cannot be ignored...

And also looking for where 1C is well above average I found this:

The article:

Seasonal forecast calibration

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Description of how seasonal forecast is calibrated and the category definitions used in the forecast.

So a month or in what the article says is that a season is classed as a 'well above normal' threshold if it's in the top 20% of all recorded months. Looking at the top 20% of January CET values that would be around 5.0 - 5.1C which is about 0.4C above the newest average, and 1.3C above the oldest one. Given CC, a well above average January now would be when it's above the 5.5C to 6.0C area compared to 40 50 years ago where that would be closer to 5.0C.

Well above average and a month being truly mild or warm can have different thresholds...

Edited January 28 by Metwatch

[Snowyowl9]

  @Scorcher

Not sure how that's relevant to my point at all? It certainly wasn't cold last night.

It's pretty normal for higher uppers not to be reflected at the surface in winter.

 

 

I know that...

First bit yes it was cold for bet you wouldn t be standing out all night you d be frozen at 3c. you can t compare this jan cold spell with last december different month,infact this was a colder more potent spell to early january 2021,also to get the ground rock hard after frosts is beating those late 90s winters and most of 00s..

And you like heat we all know that..

 

 

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

So a month or in what the article says is that a season is classed as a 'well above normal' threshold if it's in the top 20% of all recorded months. Looking at the top 20% of January CET values that would be around 5.0 - 5.1C which is about 0.4C above the newest average, and 1.3C above the oldest one. I still think given cc, a well above average January now would be when it's above 5.5C to 6.0C compared to 40 50 years ago where that would be closer to 5.0C.

And of course, climate perception is probably much more recent than even the last 30 years. I remember working out the average for the last 10 February months - it came out at 5.7C. I mean that's just silly - it makes February now warmer than a 1961-1990 average March!

Anyway, at risk of taking things off topic here, so I'll leave it at that. Happy to continue this chat on a more relevant thread.

[Roger J Smith]

Will look at today's possible record breaker(s) tomorrow, at present records are:

max 12.8 (2018)

mean 9.7 (1944 and 1983)

min 8.8 (1958)

... mean is lowest of year so easy pickings possibly. 

You can see average of record max and min is 10.8 but years setting records did not produce impressive second values. 2018 min was 5.3 and 1958 max was 9.7 (previous day was 13.0). 

[TillyS]

In for quite a jump in the CET after yesterday and today. Some balmy overnight maxima. The cold zone is holding off just above the CET area, so this probably balances out those two mornings last week when otherwise mild nights were brought lower by advancing fronts ahead of the 9am minima cut-off.

I prefer not to move the goalposts with regards to the CET and climate change. If you keep shifting the sands, you lose the impact of what’s happening. Yes it’s shocking. That’s the point.