2024 Tornado Season

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

 First Plains Dryline setup of the year??

[WeatherArc]

Interesting, trough tilt not amazing and i dont like the 850mb winds out of the south west but there could be some potential for severe weather across Oklahoma at the end of the month.

Question is whether the trough can become more negatively tilted and bring the forcing needed to lift and cool that cap. 

[WeatherArc]

12z gfs WOW 

Absolutely classic ski-jump trough ejection

End of the month really starting to get on my radar for potential multiday severe weather event. 

Profiles for Wednesday, M shaped hodographs typically equal 'forever meso' storms such as 2021 Mayfield, these storms usually result in a single tornado that can track for miles but struggle/dissipate when not producing a tornado. 

Lots of model runs to watch over the next week. 

[weatherobsuk]

Apologies if this is in the wrong thread, but I come upon this video by chaser Tanner Charles who got caught-up in a EF3 Tornado outside of Lewistown,IL last year on April 4th. Aside from a few scratches it's a miracle that all 4 in this car (including another chaser nearby who also ended up in the same situation) survived.

 

[WeatherArc]

Still watching next week for severe weather potential, still lots of uncertainty around how the sub tropical jet merges with main jet. The merging of these two jets has led to many severe weather outbreaks in the past but timing is crucial, a later merger=less forcing and unfavourable surface pattern. 

Heres how the GFS and Euro are currently handling the trough. Currently thinking Tues for severe potential in southern plains and then weds/thurs for severe around the Ohio valley region. Still lots of uncertainty, keeping an eye on every single run. Also note the rapid moisture advection, at the start of the run mid 40s dewpoints over the northern gulf, over next 48 hours we have low 60s reaching Indiana, shows not only the strength of the system but also that moisture advection is becoming a lot easier/more fuel in gulf. A sign that spring is almost here 

 toggerob Wow, looking at the state of the car its a miracle everyone made it out without serious injuries or worse, low contrast tornadoes/HP storms are insanely difficult to chase, one small slipup in positioning or escape roads can end very badly, glad they all made it out ok. 

Edited February 21 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Confidence has now increased enough for the storm prediction centre to issue a day 6 and 7 15% severe weather risk for portions of the southern plains, Midwest and Ohio valley. 

Still too far out to know specific threats and areas of greater storm risk however when the spc issues these risk 4+ days onwards it usually means they have a substantial amount of confidence in a severe weather event occurring. 

GFS for tues and weds

 

ECM for tues and weds

48 hours until the NAM gets into range.

Edited February 22 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Looks like our severe weather event next week has really fallen apart, these trough mergers between the sub-tropical and polar jet are always difficult to forecast but El Nino hasnt helped either.

Meagre cape, south westerly surface winds=strong EML and just an overall unfavourable surface pattern.

Surprised how poorly the models were handling the merger but the sub-tropical jet is always very difficult to predict. 

Luckily for us though we wont have to wait long for our next potential severe weather maker, I'm a little wary about looking into it too much at this range but this is much more classic and doesn't involve the jets merging as much so less chance of things going wrong. 

12z GFS for Sunday has an absolutely classic ski-jump trough ejection into the plains, even if this event does fall apart lets hope we see more troughs like this during spring 

ECM agrees aswell 

Am not trying to compare events but trough ejections like this often result in very good plains tornado days. 

Only problem at the moment is moisture return/advection,  impossible to say if it will change at this range. 

Apart from moisture this is a pretty potent sounding, note the extremely steep lapse rates, decent sbcape, very good SRH and south-easterly surface winds (less EML advection)

GEFS very supportive, wouldnt be surprised if the SPC issue day 5/6 severe risks when it comes into range if this level of support continues.

Still over a week out, lets see where this chase leads us. 

Edited February 23 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

12z Euro 

 

Edited February 23 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

48 hours later,  signal still there. Next Sunday looks very interesting for the plains. Still 180 hours out so lots can change but good ensemble support at this range. 

6pm sounding for the Moore, Oklahoma area. 

12z GEFS

 00z EPS

Edited February 25 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

Focus is now on tomorrow

All modes risks. 

Conditionally severe tornadic potential I would say based off mode. High 3CAPE and low freezing with a classic C low-level hodograph is looking fairly favourable for severe hail I would say. 

Along with that, the low LCL's and fairly high DCAPE should convert a lot of that into downwards momentum for severe wind gusts as well. Don't think it's massive and only slightly severe favourable DCAPE but if linear mode can be upgraded to further, that could go hatched but  I think we're too late for that strong of an upgrade. 

The low LCL's, high vorticity and low-level energy could contribute to tornadic development. This would especially be evident with isolated Supercells away from the clustering currently forecasted. An isolated Supercell taking up the environmental potential could cause a significant tornado but it's very conditional on that isolated Supercell forming in all the mess. 

[WeatherArc]

 Eagle Eye icl i was so focused on next Sunday i completely forgot about tomorrow 

 I agree, its one of those 5%# days, all dependant on how isolated everything is, not 100% sold on thermos but will be keeping an eye on tomorrow mornings surface obs.  Might post a few runs on here later from either tonights/tmrws CAM runs. 

Sunday keeps distracting me though, maybe just because its in classic tornado alley.

GFS has caved to euro in recent runs, think a D6 15% outlook tomorrow is very likely at this point.

Moisture doesnt look like such a big issue anymore. Dryline setup.

Very good lapse rates, shear, instability and 3cape. Hodos a little short as removed from best upper level flow but still impressive. Lots of dry air just above the surface though, could well be an issue.

[MikeUpjohn]

Liking the look of tomorrow and next Sunday. Spring is starting with a bang!

[MikeUpjohn]

In fact this is tomorrow nights Nadocast. Solid area of 5% tornado risk but all hazards are possible.

Definitely Will be watching until I fly out

[MikeUpjohn]

Tomorrow looks better and better to me. Moisture returns and a dry-line sets up by the look of things.

HRRR 20z tomorrow

HRRR 23z tomorrow

HRRR 02z Wednesday

Some dew points into the 60s just. Looks like a late show for us watching in the UK though

 

And then this is stunning to look at for Sunday too. 18Z GFS. Watching the SPC in the morning for an update.

[WeatherArc]

Did not see that one coming

Its a very big if but if a mature supercell can drill down through the stable layer, a threat for a strong to possibly even intense tornado does exist. 

I mean it has been done before, and the trend in this afternoons models has been one of strengthening shear. Id look for any surface boundaries that set up that a cell can ride along.

Surface observations show higher dewpoints than expected, mixing is still expected but this is much better than what last nights models were showing. 

Could be some issue with those stratiform clouds over eastern IL though. 

Not just HRRR that has improved over last 12 hours the RAP, RRFS and 3k NAM have also upgraded the environment. 

 

Haven't got college tomorrow so you can bet ill be staying up till 5am to watch this bust 

[Eagle Eye]

 WeatherArc  I've got a driving lesson at 6:45 so I may as well stay up for it ha ha. For early season this is a ridiculously high end potential but very very conditional. 

Edited February 27 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Reed dominating as usual, already up close and personal with the crazy storms of course. Started off very quickly. Got close to a funnel cloud that was just about touching the ground and as always with Reed it was a "Big time tornado" but definitely a fast start.

Edited February 28 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Tornado on Adam Lucio's stream it appears. Mean storm.

 

 

Edited February 28 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

East Chicago Indiana tornado on Facebook

[Eagle Eye]

Sheesh

 

[WeatherArc]

What a shot 

 

[WeatherArc]

Think the first plains setup of the year, southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma seems to be in the sweet spot. If I was chasing I would probably target just south of Wichita

Per SPC texas has higher tornado probs but way more conditional and im not liking the look of surface/satellite observations right now. On the other hand, the triple point/Warm front in Kansas is looking pretty decent. Low level jet strength could be an issue but lots of 3cape/vorticity.

The tornado cheat code in full effect here

Latest surface observations mid 50s dewpoints should do it.

Satellite looking very good, target area is clearing nicely

HRRR wants to fire a single supercell close to Wichita at around 5/6 pm

[WeatherArc]

Latest radar aint great, ill keep watching how todays threat develops but that OFB positioning is gonna cause even more problems for storms. 

 

Edited March 8 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Nam 3km is cooking today 

Big upgrade in moisture return and has brought the dryline further west, cape has gone from 1,500 to 3,000 in some places.

Both Wednesday and Thursday are starting to look relatively good for some severe weather, plus its a proper dryline setup with little to no morning convection.

As with every setup still some fail modes around, capping could be a concern but will wait for day of event to see how strong it is, plus 3k nam shows the cap breaking along dryline at 00z. My main concern right now is moisture depth. 

I could see upgrades tomorrow if CAM trends continue.

Some soundings across dryline/warm sector in Kansas and Oklahoma

Lets see what HRRR shows, should be in range early tomorrow. If all things come together could be a very decent plains setup to start tornado season off. Although im still of the view that the season will start off slowly before reaching a peak in mid-late May.