2024 Tornado Season

[WeatherArc]

Velocities have thankfully calmed a lot over past 5 mins, watching cell for recycle but it is running out of instability.

Roofs lifted off houses on Vinces stream. 

[WeatherArc]

Possible recycle 

 

[WeatherArc]

Storms initially struggled to produce tornadoes today with only one weak  tornado in Illinois, however the cell in Wisconsin went through multiple large storm mergers, helping to improve near storm helicity.  

 

[WeatherArc]

Vince still chasing, although cell now struggling and running out of instability+running into a surface inversion. 

Tornadoes path was very close to his house apparently, thankfully sounds like it missed it. 

Definitely some bad damage round Albion, hoping everyone's ok. 

Cant believe this happened in a 2% tornado risk

[WeatherArc]

Very low cape but storm was able to cluster multiple smaller updrafts into one large updraft/storm to gain in intensity, no surprises it produced a strong tornado with shear like that.  

 

[WeatherArc]

Not good, praying everyone gets out of this ok. 

 

[WeatherArc]

 

Edited February 9 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Going to sleep now but will check tomorrow morning for any news regarding damage and causality's, hoping all are fine. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Cheers for getting this years thread running with excellent contributions @WeatherArc 

I've been covering the setups going into classic El Ninò 500hpa evolutions and this has managed to give a few tornadoes out in California 

 

 

 

 

 

Some ratings on other recent tors and hail statistics

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tonight's events

 

 

[Sprites]

Watched some of Vince Waelti earlier in his home town. Tornado at 1hr.45 

Wisconsin 

 

Edited February 9 by Sprites

[WeatherArc]

Seem to be entering an uptick in severe weather after Januarys quiet period. 

Eyes on both Saturday and Sunday for severe threat with all hazards possible (significant severe also looks increasingly probable for both days)

A large trough over the western united states will push down and across the united states creating the possibility for a two day severe weather outbreak over much of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Trough stays mainly positively tilted, could be an issue but have seen plenty of tornado outbreaks with a positive tilt. Moisture aint looking like a problem like it was in early Jan. 

Saturday

The most uncertain day at the moment, will have to wait for CAMS to come into range to see if anything can fire. Dewpoints in upper 50s lower 60s with around 1500 ml cape and 500+ SRH.

A surface low develops, leading to the advection of moist air into the region, shear is strong but timing very off, peak tornado ingredients seem to only come together at around 10 pm local time, with a possible peak at around midnight, nigh time tornadoes are possible but im slightly doubtful, surface inversion usually develops after dark when day light heating is lost. While instability and shear are good im not sure a storm could drill through that inversion at this time of year. The only way a storm can produce tornadoes well after dark is where surface moisture is still being rapidly pumped northwards, weakening the surface inversion and keeping the storm strong (Like Greensburg) however with such little moisture and less than 2500 j/kg of ml cape any storm will probably struggle. 

If a storm can sustain itself after dark the NAM has a pretty intense environment for western Texas

SRH also very strong, little sus of NAM overdoing it but if we do get 500+ SRH storms are going to find it much easier to drill through a cap.

Regardless, mid to upper level shear will be strong and favour LP supercells, could be a few photogenic hailers with the potential for a tornado or two out near Del Rio. 

HRRR probably more realistic with environment, has some nice supercells developing though.

Sunday

Looks like it has much more potential than Saturday with a large warm sector over Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Only just got into range into medium range CAMS so still watching for things to change and any trends that develop. Trough looks more favourable as well, large spread of 500mb winds over the region. Typically with deep south outbreaks the more zonal the mid-upper levels are the better chances for a significant event. 

 

While ML cape isnt the strongest 1,500+ does get you places in the cooler months, plus NAM 3K likes to undercook surface temps and over moisten the environment=more simulated clouds and less instability. 

EHI  and Sig Tor shows large area of elevated tornado potential over the region. 

Best SRH seems to be to the north of the region, tornado threat increasing with northward extent. 

This is whats getting my attention though, mid level lapse rates. One of the main fail modes in the deep south is too little capping and weak lapse rates leading to cells struggling and getting choked out by each other, for outbreaks in the south you need strong lapse rates and thats exactly what it looks like we are going to get. 7c+ lapse rates will help cells become dominant while the EML should limit morning convection and lead to a less messy storm mode. 

 

Some decent soundings from across the warm sector, only worrying thing here is the low level lapse rate will need to keep an eye on it if it remains this low as could be an issue for new developing cells.

[WeatherArc]

 Kirkcaldy Weather Thank you 

Trey has just uploaded a video looking into last nights storm and the meteorology behind it, well worth a watch. 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Much appreciated for all the posts @WeatherArc. Trey has an exceptional channel with all things severe weather/tornadoes, and highly recommend checking out for those that want to learn more.

[WeatherArc]

Ok,  tonight is really getting my attention now.

Soundings are 06z so thats about 1am local time, still not convinced storms wont be elevated in this environment but defo strong shear and cape around, i mean mlcin is -60 so its a possibility that a mature supercell could just drill through it by using the available instability and shear. Regardless a large hail event is likely tonight. Tornado potential is really down to how far west cells fire.

 

Edited February 10 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

HRRR keeps uptrending every run, strong nocturnal tornado threat could be developing

2-3 isolated supercells develop and track to the east.

3cape very high, over 200 across much of target area. EHI very elevated as well. 

CIN doesnt look like an issue now. 

Edited February 10 by WeatherArc

[Ben Sainsbury]

 WeatherArc Some of those soundings are ridiculous. As you say, if we can get discrete development that can interact with the front and become surface-based, then these storms will be supportive of producing a tornado and potentially strong.

Edited February 10 by Ben Sainsbury

[Eagle Eye]

Renegade Supercells early season in Texas, classic setup of sorts. Could be very interesting to say the least.

[WeatherArc]

Worth noting that surface observations are really overperforming, much more moisture around than what the HRRR was going with, shear slightly stronger aswell. 

2,500 j/kg sbcape already in target area.

21z HRRR keeps the intense environment across south western Texas, surface inversion is there but a strong supercell should be able to drill through it, some weakness in the mid levels could hinder tornado production though. Apart from that a pretty perfect environment for conditional sig tors. 

Big time 3cape around aswell, will certainly aid with tornado production, especially when combined with the low LCLs

 

[WeatherArc]

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

 WeatherArc  A Reed Timmer classic to me, the ones that start off just shooting vertically and then showing the strong shear show the potential for tornado's "in the air" for that storm chase. 

[WeatherArc]

Well looks like last night was a complete bust, inversion was much stronger than models thought leading to only elevated supercells along the boundary, plus the mode was much more clustered and less discrete than initially thought. 

Attention turns to tonight then, which models have been uptrending on quite significantly, environment looks very primed to me. However  i do see a few failure modes at the moment.  Much of the warm sector is removed from the main forcing from the trough additionally while mid to upper level lapse rates are exceptionally good for Dixie the LLLR are struggling, could hinder cells development, also height rises throughout the day. Could be the case of a cell being aided by riding the warm front and dropping sig tors, will have to see. 

Heres the SPCs current summary of today "Severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Texas into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf States. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are all possible. Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort/low over southern NM shifting east toward the TX South Plains. Thunderstorms have recently increased along the leading edge of large-scale ascent just downstream from near Abilene to Sanderson TX. This activity should propagate toward the I35 corridor by the start of the day1 period. Modest LLJ is expected to respond to this feature over east TX which will allow the surface front currently draped across central LA-central TX to advance several counties north, though primarily oscillating along a corridor from east TX to northern AL. Latest model guidance suggests low-level warm advection may be the primary driver in convective development through the period, though convection is expected to focus along the aforementioned frontal zone draped across the Gulf States. HREF guidance struggles to develop concentrated convection across the warm sector. It's not entirely clear why given the negligible CINH expected across southeast TX by mid day. NAM/RAP forecast sounding at LFK at 20z exhibits 2600 J/kg SBCAPE with 55kt surface-6km bulk shear and 150-200 ESRH. Air mass should easily support severe supercells capable of generating very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible given these conditions. Current thinking is early-day convection should not completely dissipate before boundary-layer heating contributes to buoyancy immediately south of the wind shift. Supercells north of the warm front should produce primarily hail, though some damaging wind potential will exist with near-surface based convection immediately along the cool side of the boundary. Otherwise, the primary concern for severe supercells may be just south of the warm front along a corridor from east TX-central LA-central MS into western AL later in the period. Given the uncertainty of coverage across the warm sector will maintain SLGT risk; though have added SIG to hail probabilities to account for hail in excess of 2 inches."

Given trends i wouldnt be surprised if we see an upgrade to a 10% # sig tor risk in the next outlook. 

EHI shows Louisiana and Mississippi are the main targets here, values 5+ indicate increased potential for strong tornadoes in the area. Main tornado threat will ramp up around 4pm local time, much earlier than last night. 

Soundings taken from across the warm sector between 21z and 00z.

HRRR fires a mainly clustered mode of cells, might be a problem but given its performance with last night im not that confident in trusting it.

 

[WeatherArc]

There's our enhanced upgrade, 10%# strong tor risk and 30%# large hail risk.

From the SPC-"A few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail to the size of baseballs, and isolated wind damage are all expected through tonight from southeast Texas into central parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. More isolated severe storms will be possible into Alabama and western Georgia. ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over TX/OK through tonight. Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging winds possible. The primary severe threat should evolve from the ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into LA/MS. A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern LA/MS. The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through tonight as far east as MS/AL. The steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and by this evening into central MS. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor."

Horizontal convective rolls in the warm sector 

Already have reports of atleast one tornado on the ground in eastern texas.

Still not 100% on warm sector convection but we'll see.

Edited February 11 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Storms like this need to be watched closely, environment still capped but this small cell is very discrete and over the next few hours will track into the area with the best tornado potential. 

 

 

[WeatherArc]

Looks like may could be a very interesting month in the central plains, neutral ENSO

At the moment im favouring a slow start of tornado season through march till mid april then an uptick in activity, at the minute everything seems to be going in favour of a very active May and possibly early June. Activity is likely to stay in the south for the next month or two before slowly migrating to the central plains for May then shifting to the Ohio/Iowa areas for June. 

Edited February 16 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Should also note that multiple models have been honing in on a period of potential severe weather late February/early march, could well be the first proper severe event of the season.