2024 Tornado Season

[WeatherArc]

00z HRRR in and very potent, a severe weather outbreak is now on the table for both tonight (monday night) and tomorrow, ill make a longer post in the morning but for monday an outbreak of supercells is likely over Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois. 

The threat in most regions will be large (baseball+) hail and damaging winds, however areas of enhanced tornado potential seem to be southern Oklahoma, northern Missouri and Illinois, strong-violent tornadoes are possible if not increasingly likely. 

Sounding and simulated radar from southern Oklahoma

Sounding and simulated radar from northern Missouri  

Soundings and simulated radar from Illinois 

Itll be interesting to see if HRRR trends more to the nam 3ks solution (shown in my previous post) or if the nams still overdoing instability and shear.

Edited April 1 by WeatherArc

[Ben Sainsbury]

Particularly concerned about the set-up tomorrow, could well and truly be some strong-violent long track tornadoes. Tonight seems to be trending upwards too with regards to tornado risk.

[Cold Winter]

Been following the lead-up to this over the last few days and it certainly seems like there’s a high possibility of severe weather tonight and tomorrow.

NWS seem to think the biggest tornado threat today is from 11pm onwards UK time. Given the threat has increased a bit to the south, is there a chance things could kick off a bit earlier? At work early tomorrow but hoping to catch some of the livestreams later tonight.

Edited April 1 by Cold Winter

[WeatherArc]

As said by @Ben Sainsbury Tuesday night is looking increasingly concerning in regards to violent-long tracked tornadoes.

12z HRRR has a worse case scenario over the Ohio valley region, a likely outbreak of violent tornadoes. I can see the spc going with a moderate or even high risk if trends continue. 

Im especially concerned by the fact that both the 3k nam and hrrr agree on this scenario.

Moderate instability (2000+) combined with those curved hodographs just screams strong tornadoes.

A number of random soundings taken across the warm sector in Ohio and Indiana, ive never seen so many PDS tor soundings in my life.

3cape is also very high across the warm sector, this environment just screams sig tors.

Hrrr develops a line of discrete tornadic supercells that track to the west.

We are still 30 hours out from this event, things can change but at the moment a significant outbreak looks to be possible. 

Tonight also interests me, especially in Oklahoma. Will make a post for that a bit later. 

 

Edited April 1 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

A moderate risk has now been issued for Oklahoma tonight.

The main daytime threat will be large-giant (softball-grapefruit) sized hail although as the low level jet ramps up strong-violent tornadoes are also likely across much of the state.

 

The 15z HRRR fires supercells off the dryline at around 10pm uk time, these will initially produce giant hail. As the storms track westward into the evening they will encounter a strengthening low level jet, enhancing low level shear. Any discrete supercell within this environment has the chance to produce strong-violent tornadoes.

 

This is just about as classic as you can get for a sig tor day on the plains, supercells initially producing large hail in the afternoon before strengthening low level shear ramps up the tornado threat into the evening and night.

[The Tall Weatherman]

 N/E Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma border in my opinion is most favourable right now for tornadoes based on the HRRR. The SPC does not seems to be picking up on the southern Oklahoma area where discrete supercells at the back end interact with a highly sheared environment as seen on the curved hodographs and an influx of Energy as it moves N/E. Definitely a big hailer event with some supercells getting tornado warned and many not. Sig tor parameters are also off the charts.

Edited April 1 by The Tall Weatherman

[Eagle Eye]

Hail moderate risk and maybe the chance of a strong tornado. Not the best chase conditions today but it's certainly quite a big event anyway. 

[WeatherArc]

Southern Oklahoma 

[WeatherArc]

We now have a moderate risk for tomorrow, a significant outbreak of violent and long tracked tornadoes over the Ohio valley is possible.

Warm sector completely full of pds tor soundings.

One of the most potent environments ive ever seen, just screams long tracked sig tors. 

 

Edited April 1 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

 WeatherArc

I think tomorrow is a lot more potent with potential than today, looks very significant at the moment. Properly strong start to the main 2 months of storm season in terms of potential, even though it's not really a typical area. 

[Eagle Eye]

18Z HRRR

Ohio very much at the epicentre of significant tornado probabilities with Supercells evolving linearly and the probably eventually becoming a squall once the forcing pushes it into one. However the early part of this event could be very significant tornadic potential wise. High SRH where the vorticity is mostly streamwise and lots of low-level energy. Fairly strong energy being converted into potential for rotation. 

[WeatherArc]

Storms have fired a little later than expected but a severe weather event is now underway, low level shear is now starting to increase.

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

00Z HRRR keeps making it worse for tomorrow.1 day out from that anniversary as well. Tornado threat continues and potentially upgrades but its moved west slightly and the timeframe may be shorter.

Edited April 2 by Eagle Eye

[WeatherArc]

It would be nice to have an oklahoma risk that didnt bust but oh well 

Anyways, onto today 

A significant tornado outbreak is likely across portions of Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.

Some concerns about morning convection and the level of instability that can recover but latest cams still have discrete cells in a strongly sheared environment. 

[WeatherArc]

All eyes on satellite this morning, MCS seems to be clearing the target area. 

Pronounced clearing ongoing behind it.  Very strong EML now being lifted over the Ohio valley, this can either help or hinder the event-too strong of an EML would likely require 2500+ j/kg of cape to help updrafts punch upwards through the dry air, however the presence of this EML will likely increase the odds of more surface clearing and moisture recovery=more instability available.   

I should also note it appears storms are about an 1hr 30 ahead of the Hrrr depiction, may mean better recovery.

Also while this MCS isnt the main event, it is already producing tornado warnings over kentucky. 

 

Edited April 2 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Completely unforecasted clearing now very apparent across areas of greatest tornado threat with moisture recovery ongoing, how far north and depth will determine the ceiling of todays threat.

Observed soundings now coming in as well.

Nashville, Tennessee 

Wilmington, Ohio

[Eagle Eye]

Saturation is high at the moment and may help limit the threats. But could well become less saturated by the time of initiation. Still a very high-end potential event, no real changes since yesterday, except the area slightly moving west and south a bit. 

Edited April 2 by Eagle Eye

[matty40s]

Quite a change in picture for today.

 

[WeatherArc]

Ryans now live, am a bit more uncertain about today due to lots of elevated convection developing over past hour but i think a sig tor threat should still materialise. 

 

[WeatherArc]

Clearing ongoing, some discrete development ahead of line and those hodos arent a great combo.

[Eagle Eye]

It has that look. Paramaters aren't quite there but my goodness me does it have that look. 

 

 

[matty40s]

Aaron Jayjack(tweet above) confirms a tornado on that warned storm he pictured.

Simon Brewer out in Ohio

 

[WeatherArc]

Heres the latest observed sounding from Nashville

[WeatherArc]

Large wall cloud coming into the city of Evansville, may be a tor producer soon.

 

[matty40s]