2024 Tornado Season

[WeatherArc]

RDPS thinks its May already 

 

Edited March 11 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

To be completely honest after the 12z runs, i genuinely think a significant tornado outbreak in the southern plains may well be possible tomorrow. 

At the moment the only thing stopping this event is the cap,  its going to be an interesting 24 hours of run watching. High ceiling, low floor we might end up with a complete cap bust or a significant outbreak. 

   

3km NAM

HRRR

 

Edited March 12 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Thursday also looks like a significant outbreak day with potential for violent tornadoes, at the moment looks like higher chances of initiation than Wednesday.

 

 

Im not even gonna comment on that analog 

 

Edited March 12 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

If we didnt have that cap tonight along the dryline would of been quite interesting.

I think highest chances of supercell initiation is in NW Kansas on the dryline bulge.

Still a pretty good environment, think we should see a couple tornadoes from it if it can get properly anchored to the surface.

Not the only severe weather occurring today though, SPC mentioning possibility of wildfire outbreak in texas panhandle. Very rare extreme fire risk issued.

Temps in mid 70s combined with both RH values widely under 15% and strong winds in an area that's had a significant drought, not good. 

[WeatherArc]

hmmm, is that an attempted dryline initiation by 18z HRRR 

environment in northern Kansas also looks decent.

Bubbling cumulus along the dryline especially in Northern OK, some stable air Infront (most prominent in south eastern OK) but all looking good at the moment. 

Edited March 13 by WeatherArc

[Allseasons-Si]

Reeds stream right now,big cone tornado...

 

[Mapantz]

I have Reed's and Freddy McKinney's streams open together. Awesome rotation before the tornado touched down.

[Allseasons-Si]

Wow!!!

[Eagle Eye]

Quite the most incredible radar and cone to multi vortex tornado. Lots of photos taken from Twitter from lots of different accounts:

 

 

 

 

Edited March 14 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Right. 10% hatched risk for tonight. Potentially strong tornadoes and large hail tonight. 

 

[WeatherArc]

Just a casual 4,500 j/kg sbcape in Oklahoma in March.

High Cape low shear type setup today, storms will have ample fuel but may struggle in tornado production due to lack of low level shear, constructive cell mergers likely critical to tornadogenesis 

Could be some baseball+ hail around today though. 

Edited March 14 by WeatherArc

[The Tall Weatherman]

A surprise large Tornado on the ground now in Kentucky. Ryan’s stream below  

 

[WeatherArc]

While there is a lack of low level shear in the southern mode, the northern mode has got my attention, instability on the lower side but HRRR wants to fire a few robust and discrete supercells especially in Indiana and Ohio, capping may be an issue here but i think there's a window for a sig tor or two. 

 

[WeatherArc]

Cells now firing in Eastern Missouri, should they remain discrete these will pose todays sig tor threat.

 

Cells will probably start out as hailers before moving into the better shear, ample instability in the warm sector. I would keep an eye on those cells south of St Louis, seem to track through the areas of best tor potential. 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Fair play to you @WeatherArc you'd given credence to a significant tornado being likely

My favourite shots I've seen thus far of the significant tornado near Alta Vista

 

 

 

Nice structure on a small solo cell in Texas yesterday

 

Significant updrafts on those storms yesterday meaning mega hail, helmets required

 

 

[matty40s]

Aaron Jayjack waiting for a hook to come after him...

Edited March 14 by matty40s

[Allseasons-Si]

Nice T-warned cell on Nick gorman's feed...

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[Eagle Eye]

 

[WeatherArc]

Very bad news coming in from Indiana and Ohio late tonight, hearing reports of multiple deaths from two violent tornadoes.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Horrible horrible night for some people unfortunately.  A couple absolutely violent tornadoes last night at the dark hours, the worst time. 

 

 

[WeatherArc]

That's a very, very violent tornado, listen to the roar 30 seconds in. Tornado also had multiple horizontal vortices, i dont know what the official damage rating of this will be but im willing to bet that thing had 175+ mph winds inside its core for at least a few seconds.

Unfortunately it looks like part of its track was through a mobile home park, horrible situation. 

 

[Eagle Eye]

 

This does appear to be a real video as there's a similar shot from further away of the dead man walking structure of one of the tornadoes with multiple large vortexes. Suggestive that it cold well have been violent. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Dreadful scenes across Indiana and Ohio, basically worst case scenarios. Doesn't look like changing anytime soon either... I worry it may be a bad year for fatalities, May and June in particular.

Edited March 15 by Ben Sainsbury

[WeatherArc]

Some of the worst damage from yesterdays tornado outbreak, a Taco Bell and a church levelled with some debris swept from the slab, building quality will decide damage indicator but will likely be in the EF3-EF4 range. 

42 seconds onwards on this vid shows some of the worst damage, a residential unit that has been completely destroyed and had debris swept from its foundation and the church at 47 seconds which has almost completely been levelled with some of its foundation swept clean of debris. 

I couldn't find much from the Taco Bell but it does look like the building has been destroyed, cant tell if completely slabbed or not

 

 Ben Sainsbury Yikes that's setting off some major alarm bells, esp in May.  Pretty much a bullseye on the plains region this spring. 

I hope im wrong but do have feeling that this year is going to have above average sig-violent tors. 

El Nino seems to be rapidly fading, not sure how much effect this will have on spring but worth watching. 

[WeatherArc]

Looking ahead i personally think we should enter a less active period until the ramp up late April into May.

However,  the 12z GFS disagrees and seems to be highlighting quite the active period late march, difficult to say this far out but something to defo watch. 

 

Edit, some photos of the Taco Bell have come out didn't realise the destroyed church was just over road from it, looks pretty well constructed yet completely slabbed 

 

Edited March 15 by WeatherArc