Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Don]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow, seriously, how about letting this cold spell play out, and I'm not so sure about the warm up, icon might be showing the way, we will see later in the week. I'm not looking for the next spell just yet.

It's alright you saying that, being in one of the more favourable locations to get snow next week, unlike some of us!   

Joking aside, there is still time for a few surprises to crop up next week, so I take on board what you say. 

[The Enforcer]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow, seriously, how about letting this cold spell play out, and I'm not so sure about the warm up, icon might be showing the way, we will see later in the week. I'm not looking for the next spell just yet.

It is akin to writing an obituary for someone who hasn't died yet.

[blizzard81]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

I suppose it's possible that it's taking GFS place re the pub run, but let's hope not, I'm intrigued what the 0z might show in the morning. 

You're thinking exactly the same as me. Isn't the icon supposed to be up there though in the 5 day range? I trust it more than the gfs pub run. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

It is akin to writing an obituary for someone who hasn't died yet.

Strange how the people responding to my post happen to be in more favourable locations for snow next week?! 

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I suppose it's possible that it's taking GFS place re the pub run, but let's hope not, I'm intrigued what the 0z might show in the morning. 

Why anyone takes the gfs seriously is beyond me.   Not saying icon is right. But gfs is cannon fodder   I suppose it’s because it creates interest because it come out four time a day   

[joggs]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Why anyone takes the gfs seriously is beyond me.   Not saying icon is right. But gfs is cannon fodder   I suppose it’s because it creates interest because it come out four time a day   

All the det , GFS included have lead the way over the last couple of days, despite what certain posters on here say.

[kumquat]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Strange how the people responding to my post happen to be in more favourable locations for snow next week?! 

I think you'll see some surprise developments coming in from the NW.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

any guesses where this will lead?  I’m intrigued 

 

BFTP

We'll apparently from your previous posts(last few weeks)it was far away from this.

[The Enforcer]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

Strange how the people responding to my post happen to be in more favourable locations for snow next week?! 

You must be joking. Even when conditions favour snow and there is precipitation about, check the yellow circle (December 2022):

Edited January 14 by The Enforcer
Updated position of yellow circle

[Don]

4 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

You must be joking. Even when conditions favour snow and there is precipitation about, check the yellow circle (December 2022):

You are still in a more favourable location than me for next week.  Anyway, enough said for now.

That said, very frustrating for you in December 2022 and I feel your pain as it was often like that where I lived during the cold mid-90's winters!

Edited January 14 by Don

[kumquat]

Please can we get this as a headline for the next Winter Snow Chase:  

@tight isobar

"Just b4? I rip through the eps throws like a hungry man going through a bin!!!"

Edited January 14 by kumquat

[Don]

8 minutes ago, kumquat said:

I think you'll see some surprise developments coming in from the NW.

Yes, surprise developments are always the best!

[The Enforcer]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

You are still in a more favourable location than me for next week.  Anyway, enough said for now.

Of course if the front attacks from the South, but when all opportunities for snowfall are considered.

[Don]

Just now, The Enforcer said:

Of course if the front attacks from the South, but when all opportunities for snowfall are considered.

Well, hopefully you will get some snow next week 

[Don]

26 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

You're thinking exactly the same as me. Isn't the icon supposed to be up there though in the 5 day range? I trust it more than the gfs pub run. 

Remember, the ICON was the only model never really onboard for the failed Christmas 2021 cold spell.  May mean something this time, may not? 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Remember, the ICON was the only model never really onboard for the failed Christmas 2021 cold spell.  May mean something this time, may not? 

I always have respect for this model mate. 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I always have respect for this model mate. 

It's definitely one of the better models and one I do respect too!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Don said:

It's definitely one of the better models and one I do respect too!

Let's see if we can eek out some more ridging on the morning runs at T120 and beyond. Tall ask maybe but you never know. 

[WYorksWeather]

Has to be said that once again we're now seeing some absurd, probably near record-breaking, mild ensemble members. Not what we want to see, but still interesting to me as someone who keeps an eye on all things records!

This ensemble member gets the 850hPa temperatures to 14C in the far SE corner. Absolutely extraordinary. Perhaps more remarkable is that it isn't the only one, there is a mini cluster of about 10% of the ensemble that supports this idea.

Still unlikely to verify, but worth keeping an eye on.

[kumquat]

There will be other bands and filaments of ppn off the SW low. Notwithstanding it going too far south, I think there'll be some interest for the south coast up to the M4 (so yeah SOUTH of the M4)

 

Separately, Cheshire gap streamers and even into Shropshire I can see some trough action happening right into the Midlands. Don't think this will be as dry as a lot of posters seem to think it will be...

Edited January 14 by kumquat

[Don]

10 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

This ensemble member gets the 850hPa temperatures to 14C in the far SE corner. Absolutely extraordinary. Perhaps more remarkable is that it isn't the only one, there is a mini cluster of about 10% of the ensemble that supports this idea.

Still unlikely to verify, but worth keeping an eye on.

Would be extraordinary, but wouldn't surprise me in this day and age if it did come off.  However, I hope this does not verify!   What were the 850hPa temperatures during the record breaking warm spell in February 2019?  

Something similar happened 20 years ago at the end of January 2004 when we had that Arctic blast, followed by record breaking warm temps the following week in early February.

Edited January 14 by Don

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Has to be said that once again we're now seeing some absurd, probably near record-breaking, mild ensemble members. Not what we want to see, but still interesting to me as someone who keeps an eye on all things records!

This ensemble member gets the 850hPa temperatures to 14C in the far SE corner. Absolutely extraordinary. Perhaps more remarkable is that it isn't the only one, there is a mini cluster of about 10% of the ensemble that supports this idea.

Still unlikely to verify, but worth keeping an eye on.

This is far more likely than the deep bitter cold predicted by the teleconnections a few days ago.

As I type, it is -20c in Kansas City which is a full 13 degrees further South than Manchester. 

The reality is, the real Winter killer is the Atlantic Ocean. Nothing more Nothing less.

[Kentspur]

41 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I always have respect for this model mate. 

Icon did very well here in the damp squib on Monday it correctly forecast a fair amount of falling snow showers here with a few heavy bursts that we had too but it also showed no settling snow by the Thames, but this time it does on Wednesday... anyway still too early for specific details from a complex setup ECM etc so no atm

Edited January 14 by Kentspur

[Kentspur]

Here's the latest Ventusky which uses ICON data snowfall&cover this would be epic for top and tail of the country but there's also so for the Midlands coming via the NW. Up to 3-3.5inches in places in the SE and Scotland. Wonder if that E/ENEly is aiding the band ove the far SE

Edited January 14 by Kentspur

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Here's the latest Ventusky which uses ICON data snowfall&cover this would be epic for top and tail of the country but there's also so for the Midlands coming via the NW. Up to 3inches in places

That's potentially many hours of snow for the south!