Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I'll just place this here.

January set to see temperatures dip as cold start to 2024 expected

NEWS.STV.TV

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A number of meteorological ducks are in row, meaning there is a strong chance of a cold snap in January.

 

[Huntforsnow]

7 minutes ago, Scottish-Irish Skier said:

I'll just place this here.

January set to see temperatures dip as cold start to 2024 expected

NEWS.STV.TV

---

A number of meteorological ducks are in row, meaning there is a strong chance of a cold snap in January.

 

Fantastic! Really starting to believe this is going to be a proper winter month

[Northern Strath]

Bliadhna Mhath Ùr/ Happy New Year folks. I never know when you stop saying it? I’m assuming some point before next year is preferable..

The first day of the year was great, mostly sunny with low temperatures. Would take a few more days like that this month (obviously plenty where it pans down with snow would be nice too)

Currently over in Skye at the in-laws. Hellish wet last couple of days. Usual Skye fare really. Sun appeared near Sligachan for about 5 mins then the weather gods said “you silly buggers” and promptly smothered it with cloud and rain again.

[SJFCPH1]

Well bye bye rain for 2 weeks ..

This is unusual for sure...

Freezing fog could be an issue with all the wet ground....

[lorenzo]

Found this date lurking in the CPC analogs and a fellow kiltie and Ian have already done the ground-work, interesting read..

[skifreak]

Interesting that January stopped that year being the warmest on record to date at that time. I'll take this year being the warmest on record in Scotland, if January, February and March come in below average with way above average snowfall! 

[lorenzo]

A much happier model thread currently... and, neither wonder. 

Some tantalising cold output pulling through, GFS below for mid-month..

[Ravelin]

20 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

A much happier model thread currently... and, neither wonder. 

Some tantalising cold output pulling through, GFS below for mid-month..

Been keeping an eye on this too and I think it's about time I finally pull the trigger and get a new set of all seasons on the car. The current ones are sitting around 3mm front, 4mm back, so easily legal for a while yet, but likely not as effective in deep snow as they will have been the last 2 winters. 

Pretty benign day here today, temp between 3.8 and 5.2C, dry, reasonably bright at times, not too windy. 

 

[Hairy Celt]

Blue sky all day, little wind, max 6C. Jolly pleasant.

[Hairy Celt]

15 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Been keeping an eye on this too and I think it's about time I finally pull the trigger and get a new set of all seasons on the car. The current ones are sitting around 3mm front, 4mm back, so easily legal for a while yet, but likely not as effective in deep snow as they will have been the last 2 winters. 

Pretty benign day here today, temp between 3.8 and 5.2C, dry, reasonably bright at times, not too windy. 

 

Go for it if you can. I was in your shoes last winter with the Yeti and it was nowhere near as good on snow as new winters.

[Zerouali lives]

Reasonable confidence building for a potential Greenland High situation by next weekend...it's been a while...

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Holy guacamole.

[Northernlights]

Much better day with long sunny periods and maximum of 7c. In spite of this with clear skies this afternoon there was a hard ground frost developing by 3.00pm in all the prone areas . The ground must be really chilled as it was still 5c outside the house at 5.00pm

 The lack of early bulb movement backs this up although there is one flowering snowdrop next to the kitchen wastepipe

Ben Wyvis looking resplendent in its winter coat this morning.

 

 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Good evening folks. On the 14th of January I will be heading to Dalwhinnie for a week with my wife and daughter for our annual winter getaway in the Cairngorms. We have been rather unlucky in recent years with snow having recently melted or arriving after we’ve headed back to North Yorkshire.

Keeping a close eye on the models at the moment as perhaps this year we have hit the jackpot. Hoping to take a weather station with me this year to keep an eye on the temperatures and contribute to this group if I see any exciting weather. 
 

Here’s a picture of the house we are staying at in Dalwhinnie from the day we arrived last year with the previous guests snowman to greet us from the big dump they’d had the week before.

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

A good cold spell is a real possibility looking at the chartswhat are your thoughts “Kirkcaldy weather“

Edited January 4 by Penicuikblizzard

[skifreak]

1 hour ago, Scottish-Irish Skier said:

Holy guacamole.

Yup, and its been like that for several ensemble sets in a row. Drops off a cliff, though from a West Coast ski area perspective its a bit infuriating as the 06z run had 2mm of rain equivalent precipitation for Glencoe for the entire duration of the run out to +384 hours! 

Might have to sell my soul to the devil and handover some cash to CML! 

[Wee County Exile]

1 hour ago, NorthYorksWeather said:

Good evening folks. On the 14th of January I will be heading to Dalwhinnie for a week with my wife and daughter for our annual winter getaway in the Cairngorms. We have been rather unlucky in recent years with snow having recently melted or arriving after we’ve headed back to North Yorkshire.

Keeping a close eye on the models at the moment as perhaps this year we have hit the jackpot. Hoping to take a weather station with me this year to keep an eye on the temperatures and contribute to this group if I see any exciting weather. 
 

Here’s a picture of the house we are staying at in Dalwhinnie from the day we arrived last year with the previous guests snowman to greet us from the big dump they’d had the week before.

 

If the models are correct it looks like you will be making your own snowman this time around. Enjoy your highland break when it comes - gods own country indeed !

[mardatha]

11 hours ago, Scottish-Irish Skier said:

Holy guacamole.

Gonny translate that for me SIS? what's the chart MEAN???!

Edited January 5 by mardatha

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, mardatha said:

Gonny translate that for me SIS? what's the chart MEAN???!

It's a chart of the temperate of the air higher up above Scotland according to forecasts from the GFS model. What it shows is that after around the 14th Jan the upper air temp drops markedly for at least a week, cold enough for snow. It's still only a forecast, but despite half of the posters on the MOD thread having the wobbles this morning it's still looking likely that we'll be going markedly colder after next weekend. 

Edit: As illustrated by the end of the latest ECM run... 

Edited January 5 by Ravelin

[Wee County Exile]

Some extremely confusing dialogue on the model chat today - can’t help but think there’s a lot of IMBY’sm at play. Some bizarre comments thrown in there to boot : One poster from Southern Ireland seems to think they ‘get as much snow’ as anyone else. Have grown up in the highlands and now living in Aberdeenshire I would suspect that claim is not wholly accurate - I may be wrong about this ( and don’t have the data to back it up ) but I seriously doubt Southern Ireland gets as much snow as westhill AB32 for starters

[Hairy Celt]

Cold weather alert for England. Apparently they'll be getting the same temps as we've been getting the last few weeks. 

*To clarify: we've not been above 8C for about a month, and most days, it's topped at around 4C or 5C. It's winter. Cold weather alert: look at your calendar!

Edited January 5 by Hairy Celt

[Glaswegianblizzard]

5 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Cold weather alert for England. Apparently they'll be getting the same temps as we've been getting the last few weeks. 

*To clarify: we've not been above 8C for about a month, and most days, it's topped at around 4C or 5C. It's winter. Cold weather alert: look at your calendar!

I can sort of understand that. If it doesn’t regularly get as cold down there then I guess you have to bring it to peoples attention.

Likewise some of our cold weather wouldn’t cause anyone to bat an eyelid in northern Norway.

[Bats32]

7 hours ago, Wee County Exile said:

Some extremely confusing dialogue on the model chat today - can’t help but think there’s a lot of IMBY’sm at play. Some bizarre comments thrown in there to boot : One poster from Southern Ireland seems to think they ‘get as much snow’ as anyone else. Have grown up in the highlands and now living in Aberdeenshire I would suspect that claim is not wholly accurate - I may be wrong about this ( and don’t have the data to back it up ) but I seriously doubt Southern Ireland gets as much snow as westhill AB32 for starters

It's fairly crazy in there, like to come back here for some sanity......

 

Enjoyed the sun today, felt like we got some much needed vitamin D! Going to enjoy the drier and cooler period for a while as makes a nice change from the Atlantic enslaught.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 03/01/2024 at 23:31, lorenzo said:

Found this date lurking in the CPC analogs and a fellow kiltie and Ian have already done the ground-work, interesting read..

Thanks for that analog chart Lorenzo, its only gone and plonked multiple of my top ones such as 08>09 and 1962>1963 no biggies there eh

On 11/10/2023 at 22:16, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Section 2 Kirkcaldy Weathers Official 2023 >>> 2024 Winter Outlook

Most synchronistic winter years connected with 2023 --- 2024

YEARS I BELIEVE ARE GREAT COMPARISONS FOR THIS YEAR 

BOLD ARE THE GREATEST SIMILAR FEATURES

 NUMBER 1 2009-2010. 2008/2009. 1976-1977, 2012-2013, 2010-2011. 1981-1982, 1962-63, 1967-1968, 1946--47

 

Well I've been discussing for nigh on 5 months

 

 

Not sure who read my recent update 

On 02/01/2024 at 14:35, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

First off I'd like to wish you all a happy new year

Leading onto my prior post(s)

 

This week is the beginning of the expected 500hpa shifts with a Rossby Wave Break which takes a low from the UK down into Italy and begins the switch toward what is known as a 'Southerly tracking Jet' 

I've always remained focused into January week 2 for the shift to a colder pattern, I expect the first major talking point is the ongoing negative PNA coming into the 500hpa pattern 

This causes a trough to take shape over the Western US which looks like having an opportunity to threaten cold temperature records and with the low pressure setting up I wouldn't be surprised for significant snow in this region 

For the UK as the -PNA feedback paired to the MJO feedback covered in my previous post develops this sees high pressure and blocking being the main influence at least for a time more on that below, all the relevant 500hpa composites are covered in my prior post however using the JMA MJO evolution covers it / simplifies it rather well for learners etc

Starting with the Southerly tracking Jet & trough plus the build in heights through and North of the UK

So with the -PNA and MJO feedback being at the forefront we see the below average temperatures begin as we go into January week 2

With this stage of proceedings dominated by higher pressure this will bring drier than average conditions and you'll also be able to watch the Jet becoming directed increasingly further south as discussed.

With this being high pressure in control during this period this equates to 850hpa temps above average particularly closest to the highs centre ie North UK and to the North of the UK

Now lets dive into the MJO because it carries importance at various levels. This cycle across the Indian Ocean is likely THE one which begins and coincides with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole event which is still gradually weakening however now begins to do so in a more dramatic fashion compared to the slowish weakening from October

 

Not shocking to be seeing some further interfering into the MJO's progress over the IO in particular the CFS expecting that more so than the GEFS and GFS, This could have some impact with regard to an important evolution of the cyclonic developments across Canada into the Maritimes I'd still favour mid Jan but might be slightly later should we get the interference a la the CFS.

Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder

My thinking holds steady with the MJO working into the Maritimes generally Mid Jan maybe into January week 3 as this increases cyclonic developments seeing these sorts of 500hpa setups during that period is very plausible. 

These 500hpa setups also once more continue being prominent in the precursors which have been most effective in leading to weaker Vortex and potential further stratospheric warming(s)

 

Wonderful showcase of El Ninò surface temperature patterns during winter on the go of late in America 

Simply sublime 500hpa patterns 

Looking to the end of January week 2 into Mid month through roughly 5--6 days to have the most significant cold upper and lower temperatures 

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I can sort of understand that. If it doesn’t regularly get as cold down there then I guess you have to bring it to peoples attention.

Likewise some of our cold weather wouldn’t cause anyone to bat an eyelid in northern Norway.

Point taken, but I don't think a bit of cold weather in winter is that uncommon in England. Yet?!? Maybe this winter so far there's been a bit more of a north/south temp gradient than usual...