New UK January and Scotland winter temperature record

[Scorcher]

  @WYorksWeather yes 20C is definitely possible in any of the winter months- certainly in light of what happened in continental Europe last December/January with all-time records smashed by 4 or 5C in some places.

[WYorksWeather]

17 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

yes 20C is definitely possible in any of the winter months- certainly in light of what happened in continental Europe last December/January with all-time records smashed by 4 or 5C in some places.

My usual rule is now that any record older than 20 years can be broken by at least 1C if the same circumstances were to recur, and older than 40-50 years can be broken by 2C. My guess at a rough temperature envelope for different thresholds for where we are at the moment is therefore something like this:

20C - any time of year

25C - early March to late October

30C - late April to early October

35C - late May to mid September

The 40C threshold is a very tough one - that just 'feels' extraordinary, so my gut feeling, and also a bit of a natural optimism, is that it is probably possible under a very narrow set of circumstances, probably something like the usual period when all-time records are set, so from around mid-July to mid-August. But given the fact that forecast models did show the possibility of 42-43C, who knows? Maybe you could extend it out to the whole of July and August.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

think I posted a bit ago somewhere in late Jan 20 degrees would be possible, only 0.4 degree off

late Jan is under rated as a potential Spring start point, this probably wouldn't happen early Jan, reckon only 15/16

[raz.org.rain]

After seeing the "latest 30°c day" last year, I think this year we could very easily see the earliest 30°c reached.

[raz.org.rain]

  @WYorksWeather some ensembles were throwing out 49°c as a possibility just across the Channel in Nord-Pas-de-Calais and Flanders last year. That would truly feel like a doomsday type of scenario if it happened. I know some analysts have theorised that London could see 50°c before the end of the century.

Edited January 28 by raz.org.rain

[WYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

That would truly feel like a doomsday type of scenario if it happened. I know some analysts have theorised that London could see 50°c before the end of the century.

I think 50C this century in the UK would be an absurd extreme - likely only reachable if there was actually a massive reversal of climate policies world-wide, similar to the IPCCs most extreme scenarios like RCP8.5. A current policies type scenario takes us from the 1.2C of warming in 2022 to around 3C, so an increase of 1.8C, land warms faster than average so maybe 3C, and extremes warm by a bit more than that, so I'd probably say 45C might be possible by mid-late century.

Again, I hope I'm right on that, but I never thought we'd see 40C in the UK so soon, so who knows. Probably a more concerning scenario in the meantime would be a very sustained spell of extreme temperatures but that fall short of record-breaking. Something like a heat spike that gets to 38-39C for two or three days, but in total we have a run of something like three to four weeks where the daily maxima average 35C. That would be like a 1976 heatwave for the modern day, and in this country it would be catastrophic, as our infrastructure just won't handle it, in much the same way as if we got a prolonged period of -10C and metre-deep snow lasting weeks.

[AderynCoch]

Depressing.

[Derecho]

I might be wide of the mark here if someone looked back on this post in several decades time but as it stands I think the absolute maximums for each month are as follows if everything came together perfectly:

Jan: 20.5C
Feb: 22C
Mar: 27.5C
Apr: 31.5C
May:  36C
Jun: 40C
Jul: 42C
Aug: 42C
Sep: 38C
Oct: 32C
Nov: 25C
Dec: 21C

Obviously some of these would be timing dependant as well. A big plume at the end of April or a big heatwave at the start of August...

42C might be a stretch but with an extreme heatwave over the continent making it into the SE England and lingering there, somewhere could scrape 42C. Lincolnshire could have got 41C in July 2022 if a little high cloud earlier in the day wasn't there.

Edited January 28 by Derecho

[Metwatch]

38 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Maybe you could extend it out to the whole of July and August.

I think late June can be in realms of possiblities of getting 40C. Slight tweaks to the 2019 pattern and drier ground, could easily have gotten high 30s at least. 40.1C just outside Le Mans.

 

34 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

After seeing the "latest 30°c day" last year, I think this year we could very easily see the earliest 30°c reached.

Time to start the first 20C, 25C and 30C threads soon I think (20c could have even been reached today!). I remember starting the first 30C of 2023 thread last summer quite late in the year, many didn't think we would reach 30C 4 days before in mid June but we got to 32C no problem with that very dry ground.

Edited January 28 by Metwatch

[Methuselah]

 

@Derecho: I don't think there are any limits, Derecho, at least not how things are going. That said, I can't see 50C being reached in my lifetime.  

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Expect to see records tumble this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see another warmest month on record broken, if not more than one.

Ask yourself this. If someone told you that 40C would be breached again this summer, would you be that surprised?

I would put the odds at 1/3.

Edited January 28 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Derecho]

  @Methuselah  Yes I should add with the caveat that those predictions are under the current climate.

Clearly as the years go by the ceiling gets higher...

[halny]

  @raz.org.rain

 

Lytton, British Columbia, at 50°N, same latitude as the south coast of England, hit 49.6°C recently.

Exceeding the 40°C record in the UK is definitely possible.

[ANYWEATHER]

5 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Old records absolutely smashed.

Would imagine the Fohn effect was working in overdrive today.....

[MattStoke]

When 40.3°C was reached, the highest 850hpa temperatures actually occurred overnight. We could have reached about 43°C with different timing.

[Evening thunder]

This private station actually reached 20.5C today: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWESTERR3

 

Obviously not official and can't be sure it's accurate, but it's a Davis VP2 and there was very strong wind gusts with the foehn (up to 81mph at one point!), so doubt it was over-reading much unless the sensor is not calibrated correctly.

[Daniel*]

There was nothing particularly exceptional/unprecedented about air mass today. This is a case of the perfect wind direction ect for extreme foehn it should not be compared with February 2019. 

[Frigid]

19.6C.. in January. Depressing to see, yet another mild record broken. 

At least it didn't make it down south, a measly 10C max here today. 

[raz.org.rain]

  @BlueSkies_do_I_see as a warm weather fan I'd like to think we could get some long spells of warm to hot weather this year, although those who observe ENSO patterns seem to think we could as easily get a wet and unexceptional summer. After what happened last year I'm not holding my breath, but generally speaking we should expect well above average spells these days (I never thought that would apply all year round).

Having said that, the current ENSO pattern was supposed to favour a notably cold and dry winter this year. And, rather obviously, that has not happened in any shape or form, with record mild temperatures falling upon us instead... and that's considering that ENSO's effects are more pronounced in Northern Europe during the winter period too. The past six months were filled with high amounts of optimism for northern blocking and large amounts of snow. I was expecting this winter to be average with longer cold spells, I never realistically thought it could manage to produce record warm anomalies.

So, even though I remain pessimistic about spring and summer, it really does leave me thinking if this is a sign of what to expect and whether we could see something unprecedented over the coming months.

[lassie23]

Soon be having BBQ Christmases

[raz.org.rain]

  @Derecho I've talked about something similar with another member before. The potential for a freakishly hot year. I have a feeling that one of the imminent milestones in our climate will be less about breaking the record high temperatures and more about breaking the record for the duration of the heat. At some point I'd expect a notably long spell of +30° weather.

[raz.org.rain]

  @Metwatch I have a feeling we'll see our first 30°c at the back end of April which will lead on to a record breaking May. It would seem that a record breaking May is a favourite (if you can call it that) to happen this year.

[WYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, raz.org.rain said:

I have a feeling we'll see our first 30°c at the back end of April which will lead on to a record breaking May. It would seem that a record breaking May is a favourite (if you can call it that) to happen this year.

I don't think a record-breaking May is necessarily odds-on - anything could happen to scupper it. But given the paucity of records in May, it's certainly something I'd expect relatively soon. I'd be surprised if we don't smash quite a few May date records by 2030.

[TillyS]

Incredible.

It was bitterly cold in the highlands a week or so ago. Now this.

That’s an incredible temperature for January.

[Derecho]

  @Daniel*  Yup different synoptics. At the peak though I think the 850s were around 8-9C

Looking at the 20CR the highest 850s between 1836 and 2015 during January are as follows:

Bear in mind these are 24h means so some discrepancies are apparent on days with cold fronts.

 

Note here bar the late 1958 synoptic, all are anticyclonic SW'lies which is where you might expect high 850s given the favourability towards inversions.... but compare the warmth of today to that of 1958... much greater.

Just to sum up the unique nature of today, 850s in London were often above 10C and the EC had London above 12C this lunchtime. Either way the 24h mean will be well above the record in 1888.

The warmth ahead of the colder air coming into the west of Scotland was truly exceptional for a cyclonic airmass and that is what contributed towards the January record falling.

The only synoptic I think that comes close in this list is 10th Jan 1971, 850s were 1-3C cooler in this warm sector.

Edited January 28 by Derecho