Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem

[Nick F]

 Derecho I've lost faith in using the MJO passage through the phases as precursor to changes in weather patterns towards cold or mild. Following 'warm phases' of 3-4 in early Jan we saw a 2-week cold spell, we've seen the MJO recently pass through 6 and now loitering and weakening through 7, but very little amplification in the upper flow at mid-to-high latitudes to show for it in the models. What high lat blocking that has been showing and will likely continue to be shown down to changes in the strat, i.e. downwelling of weakening winds.

And I don't get this obsession with using AAM as tool on its own, it seems that when ever it rises all falls we are told to look out for changes but it seems, like when the MJO moves through the historically 'colder' and 'milder' phases, many other drivers are at play, some not so obvious, drowning it out much influence from it over the N Atlantic sector / Europe. Though the biggest interference in what we would expect in lag to certain MJO phases being climate change. 

The state of the stratosphere is one driver, when it couples with the troposphere, still one to keep an eye on though. 

Be glad not hear about the MJO for several months, until the next cold season. I've given up talking about how it may influence patterns, as it makes me feel fraudulent!

[Met4Cast]

14 hours ago, Nick F said:

I've lost faith in using the MJO passage through the phases as precursor to changes in weather patterns towards cold or mild. Following 'warm phases' of 3-4 in early Jan we saw a 2-week cold spell, we've seen the MJO recently pass through 6 and now loitering and weakening through 7, but very little amplification in the upper flow at mid-to-high latitudes to show for it in the models. What high lat blocking that has been showing and will likely continue to be shown down to changes in the strat, i.e. downwelling of weakening winds.

And I don't get this obsession with using AAM as tool on its own, it seems that when ever it rises all falls we are told to look out for changes but it seems, like when the MJO moves through the historically 'colder' and 'milder' phases, many other drivers are at play, some not so obvious, drowning it out much influence from it over the N Atlantic sector / Europe. Though the biggest interference in what we would expect in lag to certain MJO phases being climate change. 

The state of the stratosphere is one driver, when it couples with the troposphere, still one to keep an eye on though. 

Be glad not hear about the MJO for several months, until the next cold season. I've given up talking about how it may influence patterns, as it makes me feel fraudulent!

You're talking about the MJO & AAM as if they are two separate things, but they're not. 

AAM is simply a measurement of how much westerly momentum is in the atmosphere, the MJO influences this via frictional & mountain torques, i.e driving positive MT increases westerly momentum. More westerly momemum tends to = a more perturbed jet stream and thus, a higher likelihood of high latitude blocking but it's equally important to see which direction those anomalies are travelling. The MJO is taken in isolation too much in this forum & more generally, it's just 1 variable of the global windflow budget so it's no real surprise that looking at the MJO, checking the composite & expecting the atmosphere to respond and look like the composite isn't really working, the whole point is to view the MJO as part of the windflow budget, the MJO is incorporated into the GWO. 

The AAM, or GSDM isn't supposed to be used to determine regional specific weather but to help diagnose global weather patterns, it's essentially the best tool we have for medium-extended range forecasting. 

GSDM (which incorporates processes like the MJO) > Global NWP modelling > High res modelling

The GSDM provides context to NWP modelling in the same way NWP modelling provides context to more localised high resolution modelling. You're right, the MJO is currently in a phase which if you view in isolation and look at the composites, does favour high latitude blocking, but that's not the entire story.

AAM is positive at the moment indicating a good link between the +ve ENSO state & the atmosphere, however as discussed here in recent days fluxing of positive (and negative) anomalies are and have been equatorward rather than poleward, this serves to inflate the Iberian/S Euro high, whereas poleward fluxing (see early Jan) helps to amplify high pressure into the Arctic regions. 

The current state of AAM fluxing helps explain the current patterns we've been seeing despite, on the face of it, a favourable MJO. I do wonder if the very warm SErn Atlantic waters has perhaps helped to extend the Hadley cell this winter and thus inflate the Iberian high regardless of other forcings such as the AAM, it seems very much to have been the default, base state through much of this winter despite seemingly (and often) favourable teleconnective forcing. Climate change is without doubt changing the dynamics.

I don't think we should just ditch the MJO, GSDM etc just because it hasn't performed with pre-determined outcomes. If anything, this winter has been a fantastic learning point on this, but it is important not to take them in isolation or out of context.

[Metwatch]

Annual rainfall is defintely increasing but I think it's most notable in the autumn and winter:

Meanwhile springs and summers might just be getting ever so slightly drier, (even with spring staying about the same) it seems April, maybe May and July is seeing most of the drier periods recently, although 2023 did stop that.

The main story as many know now, is it's becoming warmer while also wetter which is expected when there is more warmth available as that can hold more moisture. But with the Hadley cell expansion, I can't yet see how our summers would continue to become drier. Individual dry months will still happen due to variability in where high pressure sets up, rather than longer term trends.

For winter and the latter part of the autumn, possibly it's beginning to have a greater effect bringing in an increasing duration in westerlies, so in turn wet but mild, but the reason we get wetter months and seasons is more often down to a southerly tracking jetstream with a lot of low pressure coming up from around the Azores during episodes of -NAO, but heights to our south continue to remain, rather than high pressure to our south moving closer to us, which we see often in autumn recently, if that makes sense.

These same graphs I think would be quite interesting to see for France and pick out any potential trends as they might be getting drier in summer and spring but without them, the idea of it becoming drier there is currently more anecdotal to me.

Edited February 10 by Metwatch

[Don]

41 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The current state of AAM fluxing helps explain the current patterns we've been seeing despite, on the face of it, a favourable MJO. I do wonder if the very warm SErn Atlantic waters has perhaps helped to extend the Hadley cell this winter and thus inflate the Iberian high regardless of other forcings such as the AAM, it seems very much to have been the default, base state through much of this winter despite seemingly (and often) favourable teleconnective forcing. Climate change is without doubt changing the dynamics.

Does it not make you wonder how we can realistically achieve a genuinely cold winter in future?  We got fairly close in 2020/21, but it seems climate change is advancing at an ever rapid pace!

[fat chad]

 Nick F I hardly ever post on here.

In that vein, I hope the more experienced don't shoot me down..

My lack of posting is not due to my lack of enthusiasm, but due to lack of time to really research to the level of competence that many have on here, due to family and work commitments.

Anyhow.

While I am surprised to read this post, I do understand the frustration. Especially as the there has been no raging vortex this year. It's possibly been the best chance to get a good result from the pack of cards we've been dealt, since 2009/10. I may be wrong, but hey ho.

Personally, I think all opinions and theories may all have a place. We've gone from a near certain forthcoming ice age in the late 60's/early 70's to runaway global warming in 2020's.

Maybe the point I'm going the long way about in saying, is that there are many drivers and reasons for the weather we have on our island. I've learnt that they are less clear cut than on the continent which has a land mass without water heating up the air around it.

Maybe give those who take a punt and have the guts to share their thoughts, a big huge break, as some of the toys thrown out the pram after the mid January let down, was (To politely put) pathetic!! Going in the local threads,some of the personal challenges towards comments and forecasting on here, to read, were really annoying.

Do we want members to get involved and put their new knowledge to the test? Or is this a W@#lly waving contest where we all try and beat eachother down?

I love visiting this forum and have done so on very regular basis since becoming a member. I enjoy it here, all seasons.

There does need some sock pulling up, and from all members.

Just my opinion. One from someone who hasn't got the knowledge to post his forecast, but someone who respects anyone who cares, or dares to do so.

Thank you for such a wonderful place to share my interest.

 

 

Edited February 10 by fat chad

[Nick F]

 Met4Cast i am aware of how AAM and mountain torques are linked to the MJO. But I'm not convinced that the fluxes poleward or equatorward can specifically be linked to anomolous pressure tendencies in a particular locale, such as 'inflating Iberian / S Europe high pressure cells. What literature did you get that from? I would have thought Atlantic SSTs, TPV extending south from Greenland premoting WAA and expansion of Hadley cell north in winter would be the main drivers. 

Does comes across to me like GDSM forecasting is an exclusive club who's members have secret access to AAM charts. Where do the rest of us find them?

The joy of this thread is everyone has access to a huge range of NWP charts now, much more than 2004 when I joined Netweather, so we can discuss, debate and challenge each other and those with less understanding can ask questions of the more knowledgeable. But with the GDSM posts by a few on here who have the special access generally go unchallenged and so readers just take your word for it. 

I'm not saying I don't appreciate the time you guys put in to explaining how you interpret the AAM charts and come to your conclusions. But most of us don't know how these charts change with each update so can't discuss them and perhaps challenge why a previous forecast suggested x may happen but in the end the weather had other ideas.

When I started learning meteorology in depth in the early 00s no meteoroloy books or journals I remember refered to GDSM. But I have read some of the papers Blessed Weather has kindly put on Netweather. But still yet to be convinced it is any better than other tools for longer range forecasting.

Browsing wx forums in the USA, notably Americanwx, there is seldom reference of AAM by ProMets, only really on here gets a mention. Yet to be convinced myself, but you never know, I may be swayed more one day.

 

 

Edited February 10 by Nick F

[Chesil View]

 Nick F

Indeed Nick. I posted something similar a few days ago. 

There is quite a dichotomy between what the background drivers can foretell and what many of us seek to find through nwp and being members of this thread.

A great many of us on here are lovers of good old fashioned winter weather and snowfall.

A good number of us are old enough to have had to measure snowfall in feet and inches (even in southern england) not because we're old fashioned but because on a good many occasions those were the units that you could measure it in. Nowadays we're reduced to measuring it in centimetres to try and make whatever we get sound deeper.

We are lucky enough to have some very knowledgeable members who are expert in the interpretation of gdsm. Aam mjo qbo gwo orbit and strat charts etc all of which to a certain extent make up the sum of our dynamic atmosphere and their knowledge is invaluable.

At the same though these tools are at the very best broadbrush in giving some approximate idea of where troughs and ridges may set up on a global scale. 

The Dichotomy comes in that many of us would like to get a handle on whether it's going to get very cold or even  snow somewhere relatively near our backyard or even in our own half of the country.

All the meteorological acronyms in the world simply can't do that yet. Or at least our interpretation of them can't yet.

Yes a certain mjo phase or gwo orbit or eamt event or combination of them MAY favour high latitude blocking to our north but as we have seen time and time again that doesn't necessarily make it happen in the right place in the real world and even if it does it still remains a lottery as to whether anything remotely wintery reaches these shores.

 

Edited February 10 by Chesil View

[Cloud 10]

AAM/GWO forecasts are a bit thin on the ground,but found these for anyone interested.

 

https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png

 

https://atlas.niu.edu/forecast/aam/GWO_members_current.png

 

Both from this page: https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

[Penrith Snow]

It's good to see I am not the only one who has given up on some of the teleconnections to gauge future synoptic developments.

It's human nature to try and find order in chaos but 9 times out of 10 It's a mirage particularly with weather and climate which is the ultimate chaotic system.

What's struck me this year has been the MetO persistently calling cold conditions in the medium term, only now after 6 weeks are they dropping the idea, the MetO rarely cold ramp so they too must have been taken in by these same drivers, last Tuesday I watched the excellent YouTube deep dive and the Met were unsure about the track of Thursdays low but very confident of cold, wintry weather to follow into next week. Oh dear is that bust! 

My own feeling is that this winter was never going to be cold because of the strong El Nino which historically gives wet mild winters in Europe, add to the the expansion of the Hadley Cell to create massive Iberian Heights and its a wonder we had any cold weather at all.

Thirdly, mild December's and January's are rarely followed by a cold February so I always thought February would be El Nino mild, AKA 1998.

I still think despite CC cold winters are possible but I will be looking for the displacement South of the Iberian High, a neutral ENSO and a cooler preceeding summer/autumn (like 2009 and 2010).

What I won't be doing is gazing at the MJO, MMA and other clever sounding acronyms which as Nick said has become the product of Snake Oil sales.

Andy

 

[syed2878]

 Nick F   what a fantastic and excellent Post. This should be pinned with the insightful reaction. Respect to u man.

[Beanz]

 Nick F 

I always enjoy your measured posts Nick, they’ve been the ones to look forward to throughout this winter season.  I think you’re right to call out the MJO.  

Now that winter is drawing to an end, I think I can happily say it’s been a fun few months of model watching, and we’ve had the widest variety of weather I think I’ve ever known.  
 

 

 

[MattH]

I see the ill-considered posts are doing the rounds once again on here, quite remarkable and, as usual, one of the key reasons this thread persistently becomes unappealing to many as the years come and go, myself included, but I oddly keep returning. It would be a superb platform if it weren't for a set few who wish to dismiss aspects of meteorology just because they don't properly understand them or wish to dismiss them for unfounded reasons, more of an opinion.

Let's start with the AAM - If the number of posts over the years from Tamara et al haven't highlighted the importance and usefulness of the GSDM and the AAM, then I don't know what more can be done, so for those who feel that way, then, yeah, move on, but to take a quick look at the forum and see some of the comments is just pathetic.

In addition to the AAM - The charts that a set few posts are from a source that is run by the IBM Chief Met in the USA, David Gold. Nearly a year ago now the login for these was leaked and, as a result, his server was overloaded and it went down, for months. Those that use these and despite what some have recently said, even in the USA, where they are used, individuals were heavily disappointed they were down. Therefore, anyone after access to these needs to get in touch with him directly, as another burst of logins would cause further problems once again. There is no 'secret club' or anything like that, just a ridiculous statement, there is a reason, it's not a widely known source and I certainly won't be sharing login details when told not to.

I've been using and studying the GSDM for the best part of 4 or 5 years now and within that time the amount of examples where it has helped to pre-empt NWP and also help to reinforce it are numerous. This area of meteorology has crept into forecasting more and without providing details is a foundation for some of my long-range forecasts for work and clients, especially in the energy sector. Meteorology and weather forecasting is a fluid process, things change, adapt and have to be modified. When an outcome doesn't happen as some expected then it is the comments, previously, that make an appearance, but shouldn't. As Tamara has stated many a time it isn't A+B=C and that includes the teleconnections and the GSDM, but it is how it is used and adapted that is key.

I can't add much more, to be honest. We all have our opinions, but despite months and years of some trying to educate and discuss the likes of the GSDM to then swiftly knock it all back, including teleconnections too is ridiculous and I apologise for the off-topic post, but this needed to be said.

Regards, Matt.

 

[mulzy]

Oh dear, folk are being ultra-defensive.  @Nick F’s post was spot on in my opinion.  Undoubtedly, the Strat is a key parameter, and our understanding though far from perfect is much better than a decade ago. Maybe our understanding of GDSM, AAM, MJO etc. is not mature enough to make them useful in forecasting yet.  In time, these tools may become useful.  However, the biggest background driver is AGW and until that is fully understood (except the fact that it will be warmer) then all bets are off.  

A winter that was ramped up so much but will probably end up as one the mildest winters ever recorded in London!

Edited February 10 by mulzy

[bluearmy]

 Nick F we are in the midst of a solid period of neg AO and neg NAO.  Indeed since Xmas, only the period 19th Jan to 4th feb was positive and it looks like the remainder of feb will remain negative.  That would be only 25% of the 65 day period positive. 

The NAO is pretty much the same stats 

there has been plenty of northern blocking on offer. Are we just unlucky?  we could easily have had a countrywide snowy period mid jan with a tweak here and there. Similarly, it wouldn’t have taken much of an adjustment for us to in that situation now.  Perhaps Aaron had it right when he lamented the failure of the early jan tech reversal, with the negatives staying mainly above 70N.  The general patterns aren’t bad for winter (see Scandinavia’s numbers) but they are that bit too far north. 

a lot of talk of Iberian heights - sometimes these are relevant as an issue but more often, they’re referenced incorrectly as being the problem when merely a consequence of downstream ridging of persistent upstream Atlantic troughing at lowish latitude (that neg NAO ).  Without blocking in the right places to deflect the jet into europe we can’t advect cold across nw europe 

Many won’t accept we can just be unlucky and need to find reasons. CC seems an easy one to pick on. Could be. We don’t know.  

[MJB]

 bluearmy I think we have just been unlucky, our time will come again. There have been warmer winters 60,70, 80 years ago.

[mountain shadow]

For me, it's the expansion of the Hadley cell in Southern Europe such that the Iberian High has become an almost permanent feature and is turning Spain into a desert.

This expansion means the jet stream struggles to undercut into Europe and the real cold is kept in Scandinavia.

The Iberian High is now so powerful that it easily suppresses any influence by the teleconnections etc..

[blizzard81]

 MJB Indeed. I'm old enough to remember all the 80's winters and just about the back end of the 70's. People go on about the classics in the late 70's and through the 80's. However, looking at the records, the winters of the 70's were non events up until about 1977. And for the 80's, yes there was 81/82, early 84 and early 85, Jan 87. Of course a great decade for winters but what about 80/81, 82/83, 87/88, 88/89 and 89/90? A very big chunk of the 80's there. They were meh! Very uneventful indeed. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

90's for me at least here, may be different elsewhere, loads of very good snow events, much more than 2000+, may not be classed as cold winters in the stats, but were the best for me

[Catacol]

53 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

It's good to see I am not the only one who has given up on some of the teleconnections to gauge future synoptic developments.

It's human nature to try and find order in chaos but 9 times out of 10 It's a mirage particularly with weather and climate which is the ultimate chaotic system.

What's struck me this year has been the MetO persistently calling cold conditions in the medium term, only now after 6 weeks are they dropping the idea, the MetO rarely cold ramp so they too must have been taken in by these same drivers, last Tuesday I watched the excellent YouTube deep dive and the Met were unsure about the track of Thursdays low but very confident of cold, wintry weather to follow into next week. Oh dear is that bust! 

My own feeling is that this winter was never going to be cold because of the strong El Nino which historically gives wet mild winters in Europe, add to the the expansion of the Hadley Cell to create massive Iberian Heights and its a wonder we had any cold weather at all.

Thirdly, mild December's and January's are rarely followed by a cold February so I always thought February would be El Nino mild, AKA 1998.

I still think despite CC cold winters are possible but I will be looking for the displacement South of the Iberian High, a neutral ENSO and a cooler preceeding summer/autumn (like 2009 and 2010).

OK - seeing the weather as pure chaos is fine as a position to take....but you can't have it both ways and pull discussion of a strong Nino, ENSO and even Hadley Cell expansion into the conversation. Either analyse drivers such as the ENSO, consider factors such as sea surface temperature that might promote a resilient ridge over Iberia - or perhaps do the same for what has caused a near permanent cold trough over Scandinavia this season - or don't. There is no middle ground in the debate between chaos and understanding.

While fighting the lurgi I have been as disappointed as any with the developments of the last 4 weeks or so. It is a bit early to say goodbye to winter yet because we have seen cold spells in March deliver twice in 2013 and 2018 and another late season flourish may come again, but for the heart of winter it has indeed been underwhelming. You correctly identify that the MetO have not had a good season either - the seasonal and longer range models have thrown out some persuasive anomaly charts suggesting a continental flow, but it hasn't arrived. 

Why? That is the crux, and I would hope still a fun part of what we are on here to do. As I reflect a bit I think the strong rather than moderate Nino may be part of the answer and there is no doubt in my mind that CC is altering the base state over mainland Europe, putting together a context where pressure is higher almost all the time. There are datasets that bear this out and it hardly takes a genius to notice the extreme temperatures Europe is experiencing in most summers now. This context pushes on into winter too - higher pressure, higher temperatures, less continental cold. There is nothing we can do about this now and we need to know that the 60s-80s are a thing of the past. The bar for winter "success" needs to be lower....hard though that is to swallow. 4 to 5 cold days in January as we experienced this time around may need to be the future definition of a cold winter. I note that the MetO themselves have advertised most of January as cold. I challenged Marco P a bit on that - he came back with a graph to evidence it, and clearly anything even a touch below average now attracts "cold" as a descriptor. I dont like it - but again it is probably where we are these days now.

To stick to teleconnections a bit, which DO explain our patterns (no matter how much mud gets slung) - we have seen a season where the MJO has failed to maintain active phases once through the Maritimes, and the vortex has not been knocked out of shape enough. Add strong Nino on top and we get a near but not quite near enough scenario. And lets not forget solar maximum either. Why has convection died in the western pacific? Early doors the IOD was unfavourable...and perhaps it did not fade fast enough. And I really think the failed SSW in early January was a key factor, and not something that is yet understood. There was a lot of positive precursor stuff in early winter and the models fell in line. Indeed - modelling of SSWs tends to be under rather than over modelled, so when it went upside down in early January it was a surprise. Reflective reaction to wave attack was what we got instead, and the science of strat analysis will move forward and benefit as a result, case study on case study.

Finally - dont rule out luck. Forecasting is probabilistic. 95% isnt a guarantee. This season we probably had a better than average chance of a proper cold spell in winter's heart - shall we say 60%? - but 60% isnt a guarantee either. The dice didnt roll. C'est la vie.

We know we will be back for more. It's the nature of snow obsession. Don't abandon the attempts to make sense of the drivers that create our weather. To do so would make this forum pretty much redundant.

[MJB]

12 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

The 2018 BOTE is and will always be a once in a decade or even century event

But is it ? March 2013 was colder 

[Derecho]

 Nick F Have to disagree to some extent... the MJO composites correlated very well throughout the winter which is why I became more of a fan of them.

For example in late November we saw the period of blocking that arguably ended up producing the best week of winter weather here. Phase 6 and 7 in late November. This was following on from a northerly which the MJO composite below fits very well in.

Then through December we had a very unfavourable progression through the MJO as it went round to phase 6 and then a much hyped move into phase 7 broke down before christmas which meant we ended up writing the rest of December off. We then went through phase 1-3 at the end of December and into January. Our most blocked phase of the winter followed.

 

Then we went through a strong phase 5 and 6

Phase 7 isn't favourable in February either as it still favours higher then average pressure over Iberia.

So yeah I somewhat disagree with the interpretation of some of the composites but in the face of a changing climate you may ultimately be correct. You can find them here

MJO.html

WWW.AMERICANWX.COM

Bear in mind I've been using the El Nino composites this year. Phases 1-3 are cold in January whilst phase 4-6 are more Atlantic dominated.

 

The issue is the reliability of forecasting the MJO when it is in a less amplified phase or there is a long time difference. This caught out those ramping up a phase 7 in December and I pointed that out at the time there was low confidence of that occurring. There are flaws though. The sample sizes for some phases can be quite small and we don't know how climate change is affecting their response. When using multiple other factors I'm not sure what can be effectively concluded other then speculation given the large number of variables and diminishing analogues.

I don't treat the MJO as gospel to me they are a bit of speculatory fun but I believe they are a useful tool for determining whether we have scope for coming out of a SW'ly rut. Given that has been the case so much this winter, they've been a straw to clutch in what has been a very poor 3 months. A colder winter and I probably wouldn't have paid as much attention to them.

Edited February 10 by Derecho

[Met4Cast]

8 hours ago, Nick F said:

Does comes across to me like GDSM forecasting is an exclusive club who's members have secret access to AAM charts. Where do the rest of us find them?

It's certainly not an exclusive club and I'm sure if you reach out to David Gold he would be happy to provide the username & password to the site where the charts are hosted. Unfortunately when Ed Berry passed away (the founder/main researcher of the GSDM) NOAA shut down the AAM pages where all the charts were publicly hosted. There used to be a forum on 33andrain specifically about teleconnections with a hell of a lot of research from both pro mets and people like Tamara, Blessed Weather etc trying to understand and build up a library of scientific papers but unfortunately the forum shut down without any real warning and so all that work was unfortunately lost. 

Besides that one site there's very little information or data available now, there's this CFS based AAM maproom but it's not very good.

AAM/GWO Mapwall

ATLAS.NIU.EDU

Weatherbell also offer AAM/GSDM charts within their top tier subscription, though you're looking at >£100 per month so not particularly accessible or justifiable just to access some charts. 

There is still a lot to learn about the GSDM of course, it's certainly not perfect as this winter has perhaps shown but perhaps this winter isn't a good example of it's use, it's been a bit of a strange one in terms of the MJO, the stratosphere and just our luck here in the UK really. Despite a south shifted jet for much of winter, despite -NAO and -AO we just haven't been able to get things in the right places for the UK despite what looks to be an almost record breaking cold winter across N Europe.

There's not much else I can add that @MattH didn't cover in his post in response to what you said. 

[TEITS]

I can understand the comments by Nick F as I have said the same for many years now. However these days I tend to take note of any predictions based on teleconnections but only if the models, Met O forecast backs these up.

I still say that teleconnections are like jigsaw pieces. Each piece is a driver of our weather but it seems impossible to fit these together. I do not believe we fully understand each driver and even more importantly how they interact with each other. Another additional problem is in the past some of these drivers combined might of brought another 1963 cold spell. However climate change might be altering the effects of these drivers.

Seeking a cold spell next winter does not have to be as stressful as this one. All you need to do is don't bother looking at any model output after +72hrs. This way you are unlikely to see cold spells implode. Obviously this is boring to some people but just highlights how difficult forecasting a UK winter actually is. At times I feel we haven't progressed very much from the countryfile forecasts in the 80's.

Obviously we need to continue to try and find the answers. I shall continue to read Tamara's thoughts because I know she has an unbiased opinion. Also Eagle Eye who seems very young and yet I am so impressed with his knowledge and intelligence. This youngster is going to go very far in life.

Finally i'm disappointed with the reaction from Matt H. I'm sorry but members have the right to their opinion as long as they remain respectful. I can understand the frustration and if I use yourself as an example I can recall many predictions from yourself which have failed to deliver. Every winter I see numerous posts at various times during the winter months referring to positive signals and yet I haven't seen any snowfall since 2018! Still your forecasting record isn't as bad as mine.

[MJB]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

but they are now becoming almost non existent.

Seriously ?

2009 ( Jan cold Feb very cold ) 2010 ,2012 ( Jan cold end Feb cold and snowy first half ,severe frosts ) 2013 ( Jan cold in the middle ) March very cold ,2018,2021 ( Feb cold first half with snow from the East ) 2022 Dec was a cold month. It's all swings and roundabouts. We will no doubt experience decent winters again..............IMO 

Edited February 10 by MJB

[northwestsnow]

 MJB seriously yes ..

Take a look at the graph of temperatures in  European  Winters ..

 

You will see a trend that is impossible to counter..yes there are cold spells are you have pointed out ,but you don't have to be Einstein to see how this will end ref UK cold spells ?

Edited February 10 by northwestsnow