Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024

[Cain]

Got my fingers This comes off an we get some action for a change 

[viking_smb]

 Zak M  not helping im afraid, I suffer from astraphobia 

 Eagle Eye

doesnt help that the UKV is not updating from 03z

[Rush2019]

European storms Lab has Wednesdays risk in its sights, moving in off the continent in the evening.  Interesting one to watch.

[viking_smb]

 Rush2019  I think the T&L will be more for eastern parts of the uk and we will get just heavy rain

 

Does anyone know whats wrong with the UKV please?

Edited April 29 by viking_smb

[Shaunado]

Some reasonably good LI and high dewpoints later tomorrow for SE (and indeed a few times over the coming days) but CAPE isn't amazing. Will there be enough energy and - more importantly- a trigger?

[viking_smb]

just looked on windy now at the ECM, and its saying eastern england.

[Zak M]

 viking_smb I'm only joking mate, don't worry 

[CoventryWeather]

Arpege is really nice for the midlands. Wednesday Evening there is a batch of showers and then overnight. Thursday more showers. 

The UKV 12z via the 7 day model (UKMO) was unappealing, as it had things straight through the channel. Only model which also has this is the Swiss 4x4 on the 6z, but don't know how reliable that model is. 

[ChannelThunder]

 viking_smb This has happened before. Sometimes Paul posts an update to let everyone know it's down. It's not just Netweather either as WeatherOutlook's version is stuck too. I think the last time this happened, it sorted itself out on the following 15z...

[viking_smb]

 ChannelThunder  cheers lance

[CoventryWeather]

 ChannelThunder the weather outlooks UKV only updates twice a day, 3z and 15z. 

Mogreps hasn't updated as far as I'm aware. 

[ChannelThunder]

 CoventryWeather ah I see! No point looking there then haha

[Supacell]

 Shaunado

MUCAPE isn't bad for Wednesday night into early hours of Thursday. Surface based CAPE is rather limited but these would be elevated storms so SBCAPE wouldn't matter.

Expect the area of risk to shift around run to run. Hopefully it doesn't move so far east it stays over the continent. 

Deep layer shear looks in abundance too

Edited April 29 by Supacell

[viking_smb]

 Supacell cheers supacell, I got a feeling this will have a eastwards shift nearer the time 

[Supacell]

 viking_smb If it stays UK side of the water then i'll probably drive down south for an overnight stay. 

[viking_smb]

 Supacell  i'm on earlies this week (8-4) so need my sleep, if required I will do a all nighter but use coffee in work thurs lol 

Edited April 29 by viking_smb

[ChannelThunder]

Kent imports some absolute humdingers on the 12z ECM, tracking from there over central southern England and over to south/mid Wales, followed by afternoon homegrowns north of London. 

A little nudge southwards would be fantastic for me but I'm not banking on it as it currently looks like we'll be on the frontal rainfall side of things!

[Zak M]

 ChannelThunder Late May 2018 vibes!

[Eagle Eye]

 Shaunado

1000+ J/KG of MUCAPE and don't take notice of SBCAPE or MLCAPE. MLCAPE takes a sample of the atmosphere I think fairly low down and lifts it, the changes in saturation and variables with height can mess with it. It's not a surface based system so don't worry about that. - 5 LI's past the boundary layer is more than most of what we got last year , this has more than enough trigger for it to form. 

Edited April 29 by Eagle Eye

[ChannelThunder]

 Zak M some similarities, yes!

[Rush2019]

 viking_smb   No idea, just been on there, still no update.

[matty40s]

 

[Shaunado]

 Eagle Eye Thank you, I must have missed the MU CAPE, looking ripe, hopefully!

[Iceman2606]

Small Evening Hailstorm - Northamptonshire, UK - 28 April 2024

 

[viking_smb]

just see what happens next couple of days