Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024

[Thunders]

 Sprites pretty ironic names 

[ChannelThunder]

There's been little to get excited about in the models this week, but suddenly on its last couple of runs, the Euro is swinging a low down from the NW and parking it in Biscay, close enough to throw up unstable conditions from the southwest next weekend. These sorts of scenarios seem more likely to deliver in Spring or early autumn, so one to watch. Still a little bit in FI but hopefully it's still showing in a few days.

[Mitch the motorbike storm]

Looking angry

IMG_1544.dng IMG_1543.dng IMG_1542.dng

[Atmogenic]

Got a nice thundery summer skies here

Some sunshine but darkness within the distance

[Ryan H]

On the way back from Respite I had saw a cluster of clouds forming. Like it is trying to become a multicell thunderstorm.

[Robert1981]

I was travelling from lowestoft to Peterborough via the A47 corridor so e very heavy showers and gusts winds today. 

[It's a Philcast]

Weird skies here again in North Worcestershire, 2nd time this week!

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Some angry but unthreatening skies yesterday. 

 

[Ryan H]

I had taken the image of the dark clouds outside my house. It looks threating, almost dark at one point as it is moving east.

[Metwatch]

Second half of this April has been quite devoid of anything thundery as high pressure has had a greater influence to our west, the next few days doesn't catch my eye either.

However going into May does appear a bit more interesting. Looks like a trough is modelled across various outputs to collapse down into the Bay of Biscay. As a result much warmer air comes in via central Europe, then to Germany and that eventually arriving here via an easterly mid next week, a sort of modified plume I guess. Difficult to say how thundery things would be and where the boundary between cooler and warmer air sets up, but would expect something to pop up from this pattern. Interesting to see how this evolves in the coming days.

Edited April 25 by Metwatch

[Asher]

@MetwatchI really hope something from the west or south comes in... This dry air has been nothing but grim. So much middle level moisture just causing gloom and absolutely shocking temperatures for late April. Monday was like January, except it got dark at 9pm.

Edited April 25 by Asher
Forgot to press reply

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️ 

Falling mid-level GPH and surface pressure overnight with some cooling of the uppers with lower level temperatures staying more level should allow for the western edge of a Theta-E ejection to force a few showers overnight on Friday. Surface bands of vorticity should eject westward from northern France from a frontal system into a strong low-level lapse-rate area forcing potentially 100 J/KG Of 3CAPE but with weak deep-layer shear and high saturation the lightning risk is rather low and limited to the southwest and central southern coast. 

[ChannelThunder]

 Metwatch I've been keeping half an eye on this in recent model runs. Certainly an unusual synoptic set up playing out on the ECM. In theory there could be modified plume storms drifting in from the North Sea, which isn't something that happens very often at all!

[Robert1981]

Some dark skies and heavy showers at Norwich at 4pm. 

Edited Friday at 15:13 by Robert1981

[ChannelThunder]

Tiny bit of hope on the UKV for some cells tucked in behind frontal rainfall down here tomorrow night.

[CoventryWeather]

Pretty decent UKV for Wednesday afternoon and overnight. 

potential is there for quite a plume. Other models further east at this stage unfortunately. 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook️

During Saturday Morning, an occluded front will slowly lose its strength fizzling out over Southern England. Late morning, early afternoon, a front from France will advect north towards the UK. Ahead of this front across S/SW England a convergence line should develop allowing showers to develop. Alongside with this convergence line, comes forcing which will force the showers to develop & grow in height with shallow CAPE being present. This could allow a few lightning strikes from these showers, however confidence remains relatively low once again.

During the afternoon, showers should have fully developed more focussed towards SW England as the front starts clipping south England. As the front arrives, there is also a chance of a few lightning strikes on the East rear off this front, but once again confidence remains relatively low. 

[ANYWEATHER]

 CoventryWeather the UKV ,struggles to get precip right 12 hrs ahead, let alone Wednesday

[CoventryWeather]

 ANYWEATHER I know, thought I'd place it here anyways.

[ChannelThunder]

 CoventryWeather yeah, looks great there, but can't help thinking the ECM will be right and the whole lot further east.

[viking_smb]

 ChannelThunder its too far ahead mate 

[ChannelThunder]

 viking_smb even further east on tonight's ECM! A good lightning show for some fish and those working on oil rigs perhaps...

[viking_smb]

 ChannelThunder  had a feeling it would have a eastward shift 

[Thunders]

Just French rain 

[viking_smb]

met office backs up lances theory on eastward shift