Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024

[CoventryWeather]

Could we nudge it forwards a couple of hours please? 

Just so the rest of the country could get a night time storm rather than 5/6 when it's starting to become less dark. 

[ChannelThunder]

 CoventryWeather sadly it's looking like a very late one; the low itself has got to get all the way here from Tunisia, where it's parked at midday today!

Edit: it's kind of hard to tell whether a new low entirely is born from its remains, only on mobile at the mo!

Edited April 30 by ChannelThunder

[Eagle Eye]

 CoventryWeather

Often these events are a couple hours out from what models suggest and this feels like it'll be earlier with initiation. Just a feeling though. 

[CoventryWeather]

 Eagle Eye Would have thought there would be isolated elevated storms infront too, most likely developing into the main band as it moves NW. 

Only model that shows this is the UKV (to an extent). I know that struggles in these situations with regards to shower activity. 

[ChannelThunder]

I know we can't take these things too literally, but I like the position of that shortwave on the fax charts for midnight UTC tomorrow: 

Edited April 30 by ChannelThunder

[ChannelThunder]

Quite a big southwards nudge on the latest UKV! 

I'm not gonna say that 'b' word from the model thread, but I'm thinking it...

[Eagle Eye]

 ChannelThunder

Its very close to that potentially. But may just be a model wobble, there are still many UKV runs to come. 

[viking_smb]

 Eagle Eye

Checked ECM on windy earlier

i can confirm lances comment as its downgraded it 

[Eagle Eye]

 viking_smb Often doesn't matter it's not a full on downgrade signal yet in my opinion. ECM was already overdoing it and has corrected to normal. UKV has had 1 run off. Both still hitting as of now. This is why we're probably waiting till tomorrow to do tomorrow nights risk. 

[CoventryWeather]

I can't access the UKV on here for some reason. 

Anyways that's most likely the way plumes go. Northwards then south and they flip a ton before the final solution. 

[Windblade]

It COULD be our first major storm event of 2024 but as always take the "could" with a large pinch of salt as these things are always subject to change (often at the last minute). Still, the signs are looking good so far for tomorrow night and I can't help but feel a little excited at the possibility of a decent night time storm (been years since we've had one here).

[Andy Bown]

If this system runs East-West along the channel can it be termed a ‘Wight Whipper’ as opposed to a Kent Clipper!? 

[Sprites]

Good chance of low cloud off the north sea hiding the lightning. 

[ChannelThunder]

 Andy Bown I'd settle for that

[Wade]

ukv looking absolutely fantastic for storm lovers on the isle of wight and indeed the majority of the south coast west of London, for the majority I think it'll be dry. This event is gonna be a far south event me thinks. 

[Paul]

This is where the UKV thinks the lightning will be - it's a new chart so not prettied up colour wise yet. It'll be available on the viewer soon. 

[Josh Rubio]

Too far out to pin point accuracies, but is Thursday looking like a day of interest too? 
 

[Thunderspotter]

I'm liking these forecasts! I could do with a storm around now... Get one done and over before my first GCSEs when I actually need sleep  

[Windblade]

Come on night time storm! Daddy's waiting! 

[Thunderspotter]

Anyone else having torubles accessing things on the Netweather site? 

Community + Main pages work but things data related seem to be down.

 

[Sparkiee storm]

 Thunderspotter Yeah, getting the same.

[CoventryWeather]

Been down for a while. I've had problems since mid day. 

[Thunders]

 Thunderspotter came in here to see if others having same issue, back to using my eyeballs ig

[Supacell]

 Josh Rubio

Yes. Although where any storms are is open to a lot of doubt at the moment. Most models are placing them across the Midlands.

[Thunderspotter]

Oh also while I'm here, might as well mention:

Anyone testing out the Met Office's new data?
On their website you can now opt in for their experimental data 'to provide the most accurate and useful forecasts to help you understand the impact of the weather'...
Here's the link if anyone wants it: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial

 

Although for me it just seems to over-generalise the forecast more.
Old data (for my location):

New data (for my location):

Edit: Sorry my screenshots are a bit off. I just noticed that now.

 

I know it's not totally relevant but just thought I'd mention it.

Edited April 30 by Thunderspotter