Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024

[viking_smb]

 Eagle Eye ok so by the looks of things I wont be affected by the storms, as we will have frontal rainfall here 

[LightningLover]

 Eagle Eye That looks immense, a chart not out of place in high summer!

[Thunders]

 LightningLover just saying, whats the weather scene like in bexhill, moving there this week

[Sprites]

Quite heavy radar returns heading towards east Kent recently. 

The sky here today was saying mid-level convection developing. 

Edited April 30 by Sprites

[Eagle Eye]

 viking_smb

Keep in mind that these will be elevated and so the lowest part of the atmosphere won't see as much rain as it actually holds, so not a true account of intensity but that's all the AROME does for rainfall at heights . But I suspect if you were to by hit it'd be at Sun rising time of the morning. One of the worser times to be hit. Just have to see how everything trends. 

[Thunders]

 Eagle Eye but can also be very pretty. i had a thunderstorm over brighton and then the sun was rising to my east, very pretty sight, the dark sky to the west with bright flashes with a golden sunrise and the suns heat too. cant remeber the year tho, think 2 years ago?

 

 

[LightningLover]

 Thunders Mostly the same as Eastbourne, given it's only a few miles away haha! View out to sea is great along the promenade, and the Western view is slightly better as Beachy head doesn't block your line of sight (so a storm over Brighton for example would be far more visible)

[Eagle Eye]

3000+ J/KG of CAPE just off the coast, very high end compared to other models but interesting to see how much energy is possible. However, it's quite off on the current radar. 

[pinball wizard]

 Sprites I thought exactly the same and its just started those big convective dollops of rain, lurrrrvly.

[LightningLover]

 Eagle Eye  Looks like that incredible reservoir of CAPE would be feeding right into the MCS that model produces, so you would imagine the lightning would be very prolific indeed (and you can actually see the gap from the tall tops feeding off the energy towards Kent)

[Vortex3929]

 Eagle Eye not too often we see even 2000jkg cape in the UK as i understand it. 3000 sounds a bit OTT? 

Plus isn't this exceptionally early to see such high Cape values? 2000 in the height of Summer sure. Even though when we do see those values, they're usually accompanied by unbroken sunshine and the strongest capped environment imaginable

[Eagle Eye]

 Vortex3929 On the other hand it's a rare scenario coming in a different direction to what you would expect. No wonder the models are really struggling to land a scenario. 

[Thunders]

 LightningLover alr thanks, ill be down the beach during the storms then 

[Eagle Eye]

UKV extending a bit further east from the last run. 

[CoventryWeather]

The new Arome 15z hits the Midlands. 

Back builds new cells during the day too.. but the cape isn't great for the majority of that band.

[A Face like Thunder]

 Eagle Eye that's near enough the area most likely to be affected by t & l, as shown by Tomasz S on tonight's BBC1 weather forecast. 

[ChannelThunder]

[LightningLover]

 Eagle Eye The 15z UKV has our portion of the Channel alight for many hours- starts at 20:00 and ends around 02:00! Nice to look at

[Eagle Eye]

 ChannelThunder

The great wall of storms headed right for you. That could well be great viewing. 

 LightningLover

Yep, I think I'm getting cells further east of the main band. Those can also be strong. Most of the south coast could be hit if its like that in some way. Just got to hope it keeps roughly stable in its forecasted trajectory. 

Its on. The man has spoken. Very interested now. 

 

[LightningLover]

 ChannelThunder  Keep in mind the bulk of the lightning activity will probably stay within the most unstable area of the higher Theta-E airmass, but yes it does look good!

[LightningLover]

 Eagle Eye In all his years of forecasting, he never did issue a high over East Sussex as far as I'm aware- pretty bullish wording! Even a MDT usually meant carnage

Edited April 30 by LightningLover

[Southern Storm]

Some great posts in here today and it nice to see the thread come alive so early in the season! 

Also thanks @Eagle Eye for your amazing contributions to this thread, the effort you put into you forecasts is much appreciated and I'm sure I speak for many of us on here, good luck for tomorrow night, but not too much of course, as that would mean you'd be stealing CS England's storms but seriously, I hope many areas can join in the fun tomorrow if all goes well. 

[pinball wizard]

 Eagle Eye Portsdown Hill washed down with a monster micks burger looks like a plan for some with ukv like that

[Eagle Eye]

 Southern Storm

Thank you for your kind words. My team and I have decided to do tomorrow's forecast tonight and update it again tomorrow evening so they'll be an update coming soon. I'll be doing another discussion as there has been slight changes from yesterday. Also, about the timing, I've noticed that a lot of my classic storms have occurred 1-3am, that's pretty much exactly what I'm forecasted. Im not saying this is a definite classic but at least it's beginning to have the timing of one, just now hoping it actually does happen. 

Edited April 30 by Eagle Eye

[viking_smb]

 Eagle Eye

Will my area be affected pls? As want a decent nights sleep