Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[Dark Horse]

 baddie Not an ice day but we had this on the 4th March that year. Temp that day max 1c. Shame it didn't last and wasn't part of a proper cold spell.

[Don]

 Dark Horse better than nothing though.  When you say it didn't last, had it gone by the end of the day?

[Dark Horse]

 Don it snowed most of the day, took those pics just after the last dregs fell but it was all gone by late the next morning Don. Like you say better than nothing and was a better fall than anything we've had this "winter!".

[78/79]

I don't blame them for trying, but if this winter has taught me anything it's that the Met O's  long rangers are about as reliable as a babys backside.

[Don]

 Dark Horse a typical March snowfall then really with the likes of 2013 and 2018 being exceptions.  Last March I had three days of lying snow, albeit that did include a partial thaw, followed by a another fall!  Was that snow on the 4th March 2016 predicted or was it unexpected?

Edited February 26 by Don

[raz.org.rain]

I'm not seeing anything in the synoptics to suggest snowfall to be honest. No real signals for anything cold but no real signals for anything warm, it's looking like the first half of March will be... just very benign and average for the time of year, and hopefully much drier.

[Dark Horse]

 Don from what I remember it was kind of a last minute thing, well only became apparent it was going to happen around 2 days beforehand. Not like the usual day 10 teases we get that never move into the reliable.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 3 Mar - Tuesday 12 Mar

The start of this period is likely to be unsettled and showery, especially in the south where a spell of persistent rain and strong winds is possible, though temperatures should return to near-average. Through the week, there is some uncertainty, but high pressure may build to the east, bringing drier and more settled conditions (with some spring sunshine) for a time, especially in eastern areas, with western parts always more at risk of seeing further spells of rain and strong winds. Towards the middle of March, a typical mixture of conditions looks most likely with spells of rain interspersed with brighter, drier intervals. Temperatures are likely to be around, or a little above average, but some cold nights are certainly still possible.

Wednesday 13 Mar - Wednesday 27 Mar

During the rest of the month, there no especially strong signals on top of climatology at this range, though there is perhaps a slightly increased chance of spells of high pressure developing, probably centred to the north or west of the UK. Days of occasional warmth are more likely towards the end of the month as the sun continues to strengthen, and rainfall amounts would typically decrease a little in this period anyway, even though some wet and windy days are still likely. Winter hazards such as snow, and overnight frost and ice could occur anywhere, as often happens in March, but are most likely towards the north of the country.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Chilly early March then warmer until late month

Wednesday 27 March to – Sunday 3 March

Unsettled and turning chillier

Sunday 3 March to – Sunday 10 March

Becoming milder and drier

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 24 March

Possibly turning colder after mid-month

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 4 Mar - Wednesday 13 Mar

The start of this period is likely to be unsettled and showery, especially in the south where a spell of persistent rain and strong winds is possible, though temperatures should return to near-average. Through the week, there is some uncertainty, but high pressure seems likely build to the east, bringing drier and more settled conditions (with some spring sunshine) for a time, especially in eastern areas, with western parts always more at risk of seeing further spells of rain and strong winds. Towards the middle of March, a typical mixture of conditions looks most likely with spells of rain interspersed with brighter, drier intervals. Temperatures are likely to be around, or a little above average, but some cold nights are certainly still possible.

Thursday 14 Mar - Thursday 28 Mar

During the rest of the month, there is a slight increase in the chance of blocking patterns, with winds blowing more frequently from the north and east than is usual. At this time of year, winds from this direction can still bring wintry hazards, such as snow and ice, but the risk of these is likely to decrease as the month progresses. The wettest conditions are most likely to be in the south, with northern areas drier overall. Overall temperatures are more likely to be near or below average, though some warmer days are still possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[lassie23]

So there is a chance of blocking, unblocking, and blockage hazards that come from being blocked with a blockage. In other words 11c rain.

[Frigid]

Hmm interesting update, something colder afoot in March? I guess after an exceptionally mild February, it's way more likely March will come cooler, though due to the poor performance of these long range updates I'm not yet convinced. Could easily swing to mild, which let's be honest is almost certain lol. 

Would be comical if March came in colder than all three winter months, as seen in 2013.

[lassie23]

 Frigid Very cautious deep dive by the met, they are keeping the wording deliberately abstract lol

[baddie]

 Summer Sun Is it too early to give March the middle finger?????? Its probably going to just be thoroughly wet and dull even after the equinox

Edited February 28 by baddie

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 5 Mar - Thursday 14 Mar

Unsettled and first with showers or longer spells of rain. Most of the rain and showers will be across southern and western regions, with the north and east probably mostly dry. From the middle of next week a more widespread dry spell of weather is likely to develop with increasing amounts of sunshine and, following a chilly start to the week, temperatures should rise a little above average for the time of year. Some rain will be remain possible at times, though this will be confined to western parts of the UK. Towards mid-month conditions are expected to turn more unsettled again, especially across the south, where rain and showers could become frequent and heavy at times. Northern areas more likely to have further decent spells of fine, dry weather.

Friday 15 Mar - Friday 29 Mar

During the rest of the month, there is a slight increase in the chance of blocking patterns, with winds blowing more frequently from the north and east than is usual. At this time of year, winds from this direction can still bring wintry hazards, such as snow and ice, but the risk of these is likely to decrease as the month progresses. The wettest conditions are most likely to be in the south, with northern areas drier overall. Overall temperatures are more likely to be near or below average, though some warmer days are still possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Norrance]

The further range still going with a higher likelihood of winds from the North or East, pretty much as it had all Winter. Low likelihood in the medium range of colder winds from the East.

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 6 Mar - Friday 15 Mar

Likely still some showers for some parts of the country at the start of the period but generally from the middle of next week a more widespread dry spell of weather is likely to develop. This would see increasing amounts of sunshine. Temperatures most likely trending above average though still with chilly nights at times. However, there is a lower probability and conditions turning colder with easterly winds. Some rain will be remain possible at times, though this will probably be confined to western parts of the UK. Towards mid-month conditions will probably start to turn more unsettled again, especially across the south, where rain and showers could become frequent and heavy at times. Northern areas more likely to have further decent spells of fine, dry weather.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Fri 1 Mar 2024

Saturday 16 Mar - Saturday 30 Mar

During the rest of the month, there is an increase in the chance of blocking patterns, with winds blowing more frequently from the north and east than is usual. At this time of year, winds from this direction can still bring wintry hazards, such as snow and ice, but the risk of these is likely to decrease as the month progresses. The wettest conditions are most likely to be in the south, with northern areas drier overall. Overall temperatures are more likely to be near or below average, though some warmer days are still possible at times.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 1 Mar 2024

[al78]

"The wettest conditions are most likely to be in the south" So lather rinse repeat then.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Milder for a week or two. Maybe colder late March

Saturday 2 March to – Sunday 10 March

Becoming milder and drier

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 17 March

Wetter and windier in the south than the north

Monday 18 March to – Sunday 31 March

Rather uncertain but possibly turning colder

Further ahead

In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if the longer-range models remain consistent in suggesting a downturn in temperatures later in March, and whether they are looking any colder.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 7 Mar - Saturday 16 Mar

Likely still some showers for some parts of the country at the start of the period but generally a more widespread dry spell of weather is likely to end the week with increasing brighter spells and milder temperatures. However, into the weekend there is an increasing likelihood that unsettled conditions with cloud and longer spells of rain spread up from the south and west with cooler more showery conditions across the north. This likely setting the broad pattern for the subsequent week with occasional showers and longer spells of rain alongside stronger winds at times in the south with brighter but occasionally showery conditions across the north. Temperatures most likely just above average between systems in the south, nearer average in northern areas.

Sunday 17 Mar - Sunday 31 Mar

During the rest of the month, there is an increase in the chance of blocking patterns, with winds blowing more frequently from the north and east than is usual. At this time of year, winds from this direction can still bring wintry hazards, such as snow and ice, but the risk of these is likely to decrease as the month progresses. The wettest conditions are most likely to be in the south, with northern areas drier overall. Overall temperatures are more likely to be near or below average, though some warmer days are still possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Norrance]

UK long range weather forecast

Friday 8 Mar - Sunday 17 Mar

A largely dry start to this period with variable cloud and just a few light showers, sunniest in the west. However, while such conditions will be maintained across the north, there is an increasing chance of more unsettled weather returning from the south or southwest during the first weekend, with spells of rain moving north and tending to weaken as they do so. This sets the broad pattern for the subsequent week, with periods or rain or showers in the south accompanied by strong winds at times, and brighter but occasionally showery conditions across the north. Temperatures are most likely to be close to normal, but perhaps mild at times in the south and, especially early on, locally rather cold in the north.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 3 Mar 2024

Monday 18 Mar - Monday 1 Apr

During the second half of March, pressure is likely to remain higher than average to the north or northwest of the UK, which would push the focus of unsettled weather further south than usual (especially early in this period), although there are signs that changeable weather patterns may return more widely later in the month. The greatest build-up of rain is therefore most likely to be in the south, with northern areas rather drier compared with normal. Temperatures will probably be near average overall, with some colder interludes most likely in the north and east.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 3 Mar 2024

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[Don]

 Norrance familiar story with talk of colder weather in the extended downgraded!  After the winter just gone, I don't know why they bother still mentioning the possibility of cold spells?  I suppose they have to cover their backs, even if they think the chances are next to none?!

[lassie23]

 Don They have been going on and on about wintery hazards, the only hazards this winter have been their crappy waste of space updates

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 9 Mar - Monday 18 Mar

Rather cloudy across the south and southwest of the UK on Saturday as outbreaks of rain spread northwards. Elsewhere, variable cloud with some showers likely in places. The driest and brightest conditions will probably be in sheltered parts of the northwest. Into Sunday and the start of the following week, rain in the west and southwest will probably clear away westwards, with variable cloud and a few showers elsewhere. Through the rest of this period, some rain or showers are possible in the south at times, perhaps accompanied by strong winds. Drier and brighter across the north, but with a few wintry showers in places. Temperatures are most likely to be close to normal, but at times mild at times in the south and rather cold in the north.

Tuesday 19 Mar - Tuesday 2 Apr

During the final third of March and into the start of April, pressure is likely to remain higher than average to the north of the UK. This pattern tends to push the focus of unsettled weather further south than usual, with highest rainfall most likely to be in the south of the UK. Conversely, northern areas tend to be drier compared to normal. Temperatures will probably be near average overall, with any colder interludes most likely in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[johncam]

The thing is their forecast doesn't really tie in with the models 

[baddie]

 Summer Sun Unsettled for the rest of the month and probably the first third of April???? More rain is the last thing we need after a dire winter bar 2 weeks in January. Not had a clear day since January 26th and even after the dry spell this week, I can imagine river levels will still be high

Edited March 4 by baddie