Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[East Lancs Rain]

The wind is really wild out there now, BBC Weather app says gusts of 58 mph. Was really mild this afternoon, the temp reached 12.9°C at one point. Rain has been on and off all day. The forecast is for plenty more wind and rain to come, and temps mostly in double figures or high single digits, with no sign of anything cold on the horizon. I’m starting to get winter 2019/20 vibes now. I feel that is it for cold and snow now. I feel it will probably stay mild, wet and windy until March then hopefully we’ll get some spring weather. December 2023 also turned out to be milder than December 2019, so it might turn out to be an even milder winter than that one, we’ll see.

[East Lancs Rain]

99 mph gusts at Capal Curig. A really wild night out here now. And temps still 13°C in places.

Edited January 24 by East Lancs Rain

[Summer Sun]

Parts of southeastern Spain could hit the upper 20s tomorrow, which would be record heat for January.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

  @Summer Sun No way!

[Don]

  @*Stormforce~beka* early signs for another brutally hot summer to come for southern Europe?! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

  @Don 1000%

[raz.org.rain]

  @Don generally speaking, if there's a significant enough reserve of heat built up over Iberia by summer, it makes hot plumes into the UK a lot more likely.  

[Don]

  @raz.org.rain Yes and we've seen this occur on a fair number of occasions since 2015!

[Wade]

  @raz.org.rain That's not strictly true, just because there might be a good amount of severe heat built up over southern Europe by summer, doesn't necessarily mean it will reach us, factors have to be put into account in order for the heat to get wafted up towards the uk. Here is a comparison, you have lots of ingredients to make pancakes for example, it don't equate to you actually making them. 

[East Lancs Rain]

The current model output is looking great if you’re a mild lover. If you’re a cold lover.. Eh, not so much…

 

Its also looking fairly dry for most places, away from northern and western areas. Just about all of Europe is bathed in a sea of mildness.

 

There is a possibility it might turn colder however.. From 14th Feb…

[Summer Sun]

On 24/01/2024 at 13:29, Summer Sun said:

Parts of southeastern Spain could hit the upper 20s tomorrow, which would be record heat for January.

Valencia has hit 28c this afternoon

[raz.org.rain]

  @Wade a lot more likely, not guaranteed.

[johncam]

  @Summer Sun jeezo , Spain need a wet spell or another summer drought on the cards 

[badgerhud]

  @Summer Sun  Valencia in Venezuela, Valencia in Spain has reached 21°

[Metwatch]

Yep, new January record in Spain today, 30.7C recorded by the Valencia meteorological network of stations. Less official network of stations seen 31C around Murcia! 'hot' is now possible in the depths of winter in Spain, just incredible.

 

[sundog]

Another  case of a warm September followed by a crap winter. Yet another one.

Despite any ramping ,teleconnections  ,seasonal models etc the warm September curse has beaten them all. Of course its just part of the bigger picture that is climate change. 

Edited January 26 by sundog

[Don]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

Another  case of a warm September followed by a crap winter. Yet another one.

I'm saying nothing! 

[cheese]

  @East Lancs Rain dry and mild suits me just fine.

I wouldn't be opposed to a repeat of 2019 in general tbh. 

Edited January 26 by cheese

[Weather-history]

  @sundog

At face value, yes, but when you try and break it down to this as I have done on the past

"Why would a specific 30 day period of the Earth's orbit (September)  have a meteorological effect on a specific 90 day period in the Earth's orbit (meteorological winter) of which there is a 61 day gap between the two said periods? 

...it doesn't make any sense because logically you should see other correlations with other periods in the Earth's orbit and as far as I'm aware there isn't.  

[Downburst]

  @WadeuhhhHHHhhrghhhuuuuHHHggrruhhhHHhh Pancakes - Shrove Tuesday is early this year, all the ingredients pancakes

[sundog]

  @Weather-history it's not that what happens in September has an effect on winter. But to me a warm September is a SIGN that the months afterwards will be likely warmer then average . Its  a sign that winter will be  predisposed to warmer then average weather 

[Methuselah]

  @sundog: It's nothing more than coincidental; the world contains loads of arithmetical correlations that mean nothing in nature. . . 

[Wade]

  @Downburst Pancakes are nice indeed but there has been nothing nice about this winter apart from the storms and rain (I love the rain)

[Met.]

Wonderful weather at the moment. Loving it. Bright sunshine and pleasant temps.

Edited January 26 by Met.

[Cheshire Freeze]

  @Weather-history sometimes things just are what they are. There might not seem to be a logical reason that we can fathom right now, but that doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist.

There’s no logical reason for the existence of the universe but here we are.