Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[sorepaw1]

With climate change and the ice caps melting all the melting ice, is falling as rain in my back garden and my local streams, it's going to take some serious dry warm weather in spring / summer to dry my garden out.

[raz.org.rain]

 SunSean even Saudi Arabia had a heavy hailstorm a few days ago!

[Catbrainz]

Any ideas what’s caused the Atlantic onslaught the past 6 months or so? I’m gonna guess El Niño firing the jet up

[summer blizzard]

 Catbrainz I don't think we can solely blame the El Nino because MEI values suggest its actually not been terribly well coupled outside the tropics and indeed, we have seen a weaker than average stratosphere which normally corresponds to cooler and drier weather. 

We did see a pronounced +IOD event which typically produces cyclonic weather at our lattitude but that weakened so i don't we can blame it for this month. 

In truth i'm simply not sure. It may be as simple as water vapour from Hunga Tsonga and the solar maximum but there may be other things we are missing. It's certainly not what i expected.

[Dark Horse]

 sorepaw1 I used to think this myself but I'm always surprised at how things can dry out very quickly after a few weeks of no rain. This was the case last June, grass everywhere started to go yellow and the ground was cracked.

[Metwatch]

3 hours ago, Catbrainz said:

Any ideas what’s caused the Atlantic onslaught the past 6 months or so? I’m gonna guess El Niño firing the jet up

52 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

In truth i'm simply not sure. It may be as simple as water vapour from Hunga Tsonga and the solar maximum but there may be other things we are missing. It's certainly not what i expected.

Obvious a lot of factors around, which some we may not know exist, but surely the very warm North Atlantic / global sea surface temperatures in general, has some impact. Every week I see posts saying they're in uncharted territory with those graphs comparing to previous years, so that has to be playing some role.

[SunnyG]

Winter is well and truly dead. Couldn't have happened to a better season

[LetItSnow!]

Ceased any hopes or cares for excess cold weather now, but I can’t say I’m hoping for warmth yet at all really. As I’ve been saying, it has been so mild and the trees are so advanced I can’t see it being a good thing to get a freak warm spell only to have a cold snap afterwards. Hoping for quite a bog standard, changeable March and save the warmth until April.  

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

has been so mild and the trees are so advanced I can’t see it being a good thing to get a freak warm spell only to have a cold snap afterwards. Hoping for quite a bog standard, changeable March and save the warmth until April.  

Are they? Most trees are totally bare no buds. Still very much a winter scene. Pic I took yesterday.

[LetItSnow!]

 Daniel* Go back and see pictures I uploaded earlier. At least locally a very different picture with blossoms, daffodils, some bushes and even some trees in what appear to be the first signs of bud. Never known anything like it. 

[cheese]

I’ve noticed some trees here with budding too. I don’t know how unusual that is though as I’ve definitely seen budding in February before.

Edited February 15 by cheese

[SunSean]

You know what we're way overdue? A really nice & sunny early March! We haven't had a sunny start to March since 2015 in my area which is an obscene anomaly. Let's hope this putrid wet & dull dominated pattern breaks finally in a week or so & we get a run of exceptionally sunny months!

[Summer Sun]

Austria is currently 6.8c above average for February bar an exceptionally cold second half of the month, they are on course to have their warmest February since records began 256 years ago in 1768.

[Summer Sun]

Today could be the warmest February 15th on record in the UK.

 

The current date record is 18.2c in Colwyn Bay.

[rwtwm]

Past mild and into warm today out there IMO!

I left my jacket indoors for my lunchtime walk, and was still warm. Lots more gaps in the cloud here than originally modelled, and the sun has a bit of oomph to it at last.

I'd enjoy it more were it rarer, but days like this in February are becoming troublingly common.

Edited February 15 by rwtwm
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[damianslaw]

There is a bush outside which is bursting into green.. It is always early, last year I think by early March, mid Feb is quite exceptional.. the lack of heat and drought over the summer is probably resulting in earlier than growth as much as the warmth of recent months. Its been a great year for growth overall, plants love the mild dank wet weather. 

[Scorcher]

 Daniel* Most trees are bare still but you would expect that in early or even mid March as well. The hardwood trees don't usually get leaves until April at least. There are definitely some smaller trees around with leaves coming through and some hedgerows greening up quite a lot. Definitely more advanced than normal for mid February.

[Summer Sun]

Data suggests we've fallen just short of the date record, with Pershore College and Teddington Bushy Park both hitting 18.1c

[Metwatch]

17 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Are they? Most trees are totally bare no buds. Still very much a winter scene. Pic I took yesterday.

Obviously the trees won't be in full leaf or even look green in February, but if you look hard enough, there are a lot of signs in nature that are virtually in early spring mode now, ready to burst into bloom as @LetItSnow! alludes to. A lot of flowers about as well. I'd even say a bit ahead of quite a few late winter periods of recent.

A few pics today:

 

11 hours ago, cheese said:

I’ve noticed some trees here with budding too. I don’t know how unusual that is though as I’ve definitely seen budding in February before.

Yeah, budding pretty much happens most Februaries now, with the only one with not much signs being 2021, as January and early Feb was chilly back then. Similar I think with 2018 and 2013 as well.

Edited February 15 by Metwatch

[reef]

 Summer Sun 16.1C in December, 19.9C in January and 18.1C in February.

That's quite a set of maximums for "winter".

[WYorksWeather]

 reef Next interesting question - is that the highest combined maximum for any winter ever? And if not, how far off?

In other words, has any winter beaten 54.1 for the sum of the three monthly maxima for December, January and February?

[emmett garland]

 reef And we still have 14 days left in this month

[reef]

 WYorksWeather im guessing its the highest as before the new February and December records were set in 2019 the theoretical maximum total was 56.3 (18.3, 18.3 and 19.7).

All three winter record maximums have been set in the last 5 years now.

Edited February 15 by reef

[SunSean]

1st half of February 2024 (1st to 15th)

Reminiscent of a milder version of December 2023 so far.

Hopefully the 2nd half will feature a bit more sunshine?

[Nick L]

Genuinely got some leaves coming out on a couple of trees here. I have never seen it this early before. Certainly a year without a winter down here. Also saw my first bumblebee of the year although that's not quite so unusual in mid-Feb.