Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Day 10  But Kirkwood says yes. A foregone conclusion. 

It’s all nailed on.

[cheshire snow]

 Day 10 spot on

very unusual but not unheard of for ECM to be wrong at short notice GFS yet again going off on one,it is been very consistent I will give it that and totally against the ECM and the EPS.

[Day 10]

A note on the Met Apps for here over the last few days temps wise for Thurs, started off at 11 then 9 then 7 then 5 and now it's 3, very good trend I would say.

Edited February 5 by Day 10

[cheshire snow]

 Iceaxecrampon she can say yes to me anytime of the yearOh sorry you mean the snow prospects my bad…..

[Iceaxecrampon]

 cheshire snow

 

[cheshire snow]

Some absolute beauties on the GEFS ENS mid month looking very interesting  

PV torn to shreds.

Edited February 5 by cheshire snow

[frosty ground]

GFS removes the risk of freezing rain mostly at least 

if that’s snow then it’s going to be a decent fall if it’s rain it’s going to be very wet 

[Alexis]

Thursday would be nice but I always think that if we can suddenly switch from mild southwesterlies to a snowmaker just like that, we'd see about 10 snow events every winter!

[Scuba steve]

All I can see is a snow to rain event at the coast but those inland and up in the gods might get something tasty 

[Iceaxecrampon]

 

[Chris.R]

GFS/WRF need to change for the better.

[tvh3382]

 Spah1

 

I do.  Bring it on

[Thunder Snow]

I'm not expecting to much if anything,.I think it will be more to the south of the region 

[Rain Lady]

Curlew calling up here this morning.  That's 3 weeks early!    Overnight min was 8.0 C !

 

[WillinGlossop]

We’re on the lunchtime news

[frosty ground]

Thursday is now forecast for 24 hours of heavy snow which will change many times between now and Thursday

UKMET App obviously using the latest data available.

[Iceaxecrampon]

 Rain Lady Everything’s early! 
Snowdrops Daffs Cherry Blossom even Hostas are poking up. Poor things going to have a shock and clear off back. 

[James M]

 WillinGlossop

I know the breadth of the warning is due to the uncertainty but I’m fully expecting a lot of people to complain about not getting any snow on Thursday. Already on local Facebook pages people are expecting a guarantee of snow .

Im not expecting much, my gut feeling is the GFS will be closer to what will happen.

[cheshire snow]

 WillinGlossop even Darren had a little ramp in that forecast interesting he mentioned the weather warning been yellow then said for now certainly looked very good and didn’t even show the rain transistion on the graphics.

[cheshire snow]

 James M really?

not trying to convince you either way,but GFS over the ECM over the next 72hrs ECM hardly covered itself in glory recently but for the GFS to outdo the ECM in such short time scale would be a major victory for that model,if we believe the GFS we are going mild straight away even the Meto are forecasting Wintry showers from the NW for the weekend.

[Joe Bloggs]

Greater Manchester and North Cheshire / modest heights and SE’ly wind = DRY. 

Even if it’s cold enough  just watch the precipitation disappear once we get within the high-res. 

If it’s cold enough, west of the region is best plus high ground elsewhere. 

IMBY - not that interested in this one. Would delighted to be wrong. 

[frosty ground]

 Joe Bloggs 

wind direction is important anything remotely southerly will dry Up the PPN is no time, fortunately most i see mostly easterlies with a slight northerly component

 

[damianslaw]

Key feature of today is the wind, very gusty indeed, making for a rather unpleasant feel under cloud despite mild temp up to 10 degrees.

A much more seasonal week ahead than the last two temp wise. Lots of uncertainty Thursday onwards, we will see the return of frost tomorrow night. Winter coming back. 

[Ghost of winters past]

Anyone else see or hear the RAF Euro-fighter incredibly low over Stockport earlier on? It was amazing the track it took and was so loud...nothing on the news. Thought it must have been escorting a potential incoming threat?

[cheshire snow]

 Ghost of winters past see below

escorted an SAS airliner in to Manchester