Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[hmarkd1974]

 andymusic Fingers crossed. We are well overdue some this winter

[andymusic]

meto's longer range update today is still camped in cold northerly/north easterly set up with cold and icy/frosty nights with the possibility of Atlantic incursions into the south west into the cold air with snow well into March so it seems we have the pattern change, lets see how it pans out

[hmarkd1974]

[keithlucky]

 andymusic Snow line moving south again .50 miles further south .Looks like a slush fest for S Wales.Could see another south correction which will help !

[andymusic]

 keithlucky

[Snowyowl9]

The arpege would be stunning just for a snow day,I don t like that warm sector coming in on the others..

[keithlucky]

I see a slush fest.Love the human contribution these computer programmers must be bashing there heads against the wall with these unusual patterns,!!

[andymusic]

[CLH]

The M4 is, surely, some sort of mystic ley line......

 

[DeepSnow]

I very much have resigned to the fact this may be a snowless winter for me on the south coast in terms of laying snow. Hopefully a miracle can happen and it can correct 100 miles or so further south and stall, keeping us in cold enough air

[The4Seasons]

Wow nearly 70mph winds and torrential rain. Floods on the roads and rising rivers. Surprising there are no warnings this evening. Seen named storms with less winds than this on an Amber lol  

[The4Seasons]

 DeepSnow I give up hope with it now tbh mate. Everytime there has been hints of snow or cold it has always been 10 days to 5 max then for it to just disappear. We have been so unlucky this year. I work in utilities with the highways and get their gritting reports from the met office and they don't suggest anything wintry will last long even for the next 10 days. Even utilities meto update was uninspiring. No mention of anything significant snow wise. Just brief snow for north possibly mid Wales then milder. I think met office outlook write up will change soon to disappoint. I think the mad thread will have to accept that this is a likely outcome sadly. 

[andymusic]

 The4Seasons agreed it's fairly wild out there right now

[Loadsa2000]

In the wilds of Caerphilly today

Today: 63.0 km/h 13:34

Rain Today:27.0 mm

[Wetterfrosch]

1 hour ago, The4Seasons said:

Wow nearly 70mph winds and torrential rain. Floods on the roads and rising rivers. Surprising there are no warnings this evening. Seen named storms with less winds than this on an Amber lol  

I wondered myself why there was silence yet again from the Metoffice, had obviously their eyes on the expected snow event and lost short term sight. With 38 mm at Capel Curig, 27 mm at Bala and 25 mm in my own front garden in less than twelve hours it's no wonder flooding has been reported in places like Ruthin for example. My own chances of snow remain marginal. Although temperature spot forecast has come down, all sleet symbols have turned to rain which is rather weird in itself but with up to 47 mph easterly gusts and a feels like temperature of minus 4 there might be enough evaporative cooling to produce snow, even if it's transient.

Edited February 6 by Wetterfrosch
location correction

[keithlucky]

Another stratospheric warming is about to start with a stronger down dwelling than the last event.zonal wind reversal will take place around the 14th of February leading to a cold   North easterly met office seems ro agree to this in there monthly outlook.

Edited February 6 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

Amber warning now out for mid/north Wales for snow/ice from the meto

Edited February 7 by andymusic

[Snowyowl9]

 andymusic

Thanks for the update..

Fascinating..

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2024-02-08&id=8522b3e9-49d4-40ca-8bdc-e9cdf0e876b4

Snow is expected to develop during Thursday morning and become persistent and at times heavy before slowly easing later in the day. As milder air begins to arrive from the south, there is a chance that snow could turn to freezing rain across some higher routes above 200 metres. Across the warning area, 10-15 cm of snow is expected quite widely but some places, particularly those above 200 metres, may see 20-25 cm of snow. Strong and gusty easterly winds may lead to some drifting in places.

[Coilspring]

 andymusic  andymus

Looks like a wash out for South Wales for a change.

 Had enough rain now. Stop it. 

Edited February 7 by Coilspring

[Ian Ballinger]

Roll on spring is all I can say, fed up of cold wet wind

[Snowyowl9]

 The4Seasons

All these named they certainly didn t have this fuss years ago..

Going through 1982 upto this one there would of been 5 named storms..will check after the later months see how many we would of got..

[The4Seasons]

 Snowyowl9 I remember when we didn't get the warnings we get now. The following storms were real bad boys from late 80s/90s. Do these come to mind? .  I was looking at my 50 years of family weather daily archives that goes back to the 70s. One of the storms in 1989 tore much of the roofing off the house, ripped up trees in the garden, flattened power lines. So much memories that from sitting in candle light with take aways from the chippie for a week without power and freezing temps. That did some big damage . 

[The4Seasons]

 Wetterfrosch Hey good luck for tomorrow's snow events up there mate . If you get lucky share us some photos from your beautiful part of the world. As for my area another yellow warning for a rain drenching is in force.  I really cannot wait for spring to arrive. This dull muck has been endless. Luckily today we had a pause ⏸ . So far this winter I have managed to see and record a 1 cm dusting of snow from when I posted here back on the 8 Jan. Plus have recorded -7c and -6 so it's not all doom and gloom . I am hoping we get 1 last chance before spring takes hold of something good 🌨❄. That would be nice. 

[keithlucky]

 The4Seasons we are approaching our snowiest period so with strat warming soon underway all is not lost  

[andy989]

Not sure what to think about tomorrows chances IMBY. I’m in the amber area, I live in the mountains and I’m 1002ft. Everything is on my side by weather forecasts say rain. I think going but expirience tells me I’ll do fine as the area I live has a microclimate due to the mountains. Fingers crossed 

Edited February 7 by andy989