February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

From the earlier table, this is top 20 for CET values 1-20 Feb, with final ranks shown (from official table down to 6.8 C).

 

Rank __ YEAR ___ CET (1-20) __ (1-28 or 29) *leap year 29d

_ 01 ___ 1869 ____ 8.25 _______ 7.49 (2)

_ 02 ___ 1779 ____ 7.99 _______ 7.87 (1)

_ 03 ___ 1946 ____ 7.54 _______ 5.91 

_ 04 ___ 1867 ____ 7.40 _______ 6.89 (13)

_ 05 ___ 1914 ____ 7.39 _______ 6.82 (16)

_ 06 ___ 2002 ____ 7.35 _______ 6.97 (8)

_ 07 ___ 1961 ____ 7.31 _______ 6.90 (11)

_ 08 ___ 1877 ____ 7.27 _______ 6.20

_ 09 ___ 1998 ____ 7.21 _______ 7.23 (4)

_ 10 ___ 1903 ____ 7.15 _______ 7.11 (7)

_ 11 ___ 2022 ____ 7.07 _______ 6.95 (9)

_ 12 ___ 2004 ____ 7.06 _______ 5.40*

_ 13 ___ 1945 ____ 7.05 _______ 7.10 (6)

_ 14 ___ 1990 ____ 6.94 _______ 7.33 (3)

_ 15 ___ 1995 ____ 6.88 _______ 6.49

_ 16 ___ 1872 ____ 6.76 _______ 6.89 * (12)

_t17 ___ 1794 ____ 6.70 _______ 7.16 (5)

_t17 ___ 1989 ____ 6.70 _______ 5.96

_ 18 ___ 1850 ____ 6.64 _______ 6.39

_ 19 ___ 1822 ____ 6.61 _______ 6.34

_t20 ___ 1920 ____ 6.54 _______ 5.99 *

_t20 ___ 2020 ____ 6.54 _______ 6.44 *

 

2019 was 5.84 6.89 (10)

1926 was 6.41 6.85 (14)

1739 was (no daily data) 6.8 (15)

[Weather-history]

Shocking rainfall totals. 

If you looking at the EWP total of March 2023 to currently, gives a total of 1275.7mm provisionally and we are not quite completed the 12 month period.

An annual rainfall total of 1275.7mm would make that year the 2nd wettest year on record for the EWP 

Another 10mm and it will surpass the 1872 total of 1284.9mm 

So the question becomes what is wettest rolling 12 month period for the EWP? 

[Scorcher]

 Weather-history I know sunshine statistics don't go back that far but it's also been a very dull last 12 months- in this area at least.

Only around 230 hours of sunshine here since the start of October. 

Edited February 19 by Scorcher

[snowray]

We are getting all the rain that some of which would "normally" have gone into Southern Europe in winter, hence a deluge for us and drought conditions in places in Europe. Unfortunately, the indomitable Azores/African highs more northerly position hold the pattern in place for most of Winter.

Edited February 19 by snowray

[reef]

 Scorcher Dullest October - February periods here since 1980:

1992-93: 299hrs
2023-24: 299hrs (to 18th Feb)
1982-83: 300hrs
1990-91: 322hrs
2020-21: 323hrs
1993-93: 327hrs
1997-98: 328hrs
1984-85: 329hrs
1995-96: 332hrs
2002-03: 332hrs

I suspect it'll end up somewhere in this list. So depending on whether it beats 1990-91, it could be the worst in 30 years.

Edited February 19 by reef

[Scorcher]

 reef Interesting to hear it confirmed that it's also been dull in the east.

Let's hope we don't get a repeat of summer 1993 which followed the dullest period on your list. That must have been very depressing after such a dull winter.

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 18th

4.8c above the 61 to 90 average
4.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[MattStoke]

Looks like yesterday's CET mean (12'C) was another date record.

Edited February 19 by MattStoke

[Metwatch]

Another large spike following Saturday night's washout, up to 98mm, so 100mm a given in the coming days.

 Ending up in the 130-140mm range possibly now? That would mean a top 10 wettest February in the series, joining 2020 and 2014 this century:

[reef]

It looks like we only need about 6.9C in the remaining 11 days to beat the record. Today and tomorrow look milder than that so that figure will reduce.

[snowray]

Even this late Feb cold snap looks feeble, may upgrade, but historically speaking there has been more cold air to larch onto in April/May with the set up that is showing.

So depressing that it's just going to be more wet and cold rain for most of us. I had expectations of something a bit more seasonal for the 2nd half of the month, not more rain, so we are going from mild rain to cold rain... when will it end?

[snowray]

 reef From these silly high levels I always thought that just a 5 day "average" cold snap could reduce the CET by 1c, one week of "deeper cold" by 1.5/2c.

Can't see even the 1c drop happening now.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.8C +3.2C above average. Rainfall 74.1mm 113.7% of the monthly average.

A drop down to near average temperatures later on which should stop this month getting the warmest ever but not cold enough to prevent a comfortable 2nd place warmest ever for us.

 

Edited February 19 by The PIT

[WYorksWeather]

Mean today looks a little lower, maybe 9.5C or so. We're at 8.61C in two decimals to yesterday, so likely a nudge up to rounded 8.7C but below it in two decimals, maybe 8.66C or so. Likely that we end the warm run around 8.8C at a guess, then a case of how far it will fall after that.

[WYorksWeather]

 reef Wednesday as well I think. Maxes quite widely around 11-13C and minima no lower than 4-5C for the CET region going by tonight's UKV.

That will then leave us eight days, probably a final target of something between 5.5C and 6.0C means for those days. Possibility of a real knife-edge finish I think with current model output.

[Roger J Smith]

Just to confirm, 18 Feb 2024 set new record CET mean of 12.0 (broke 11.8 1945), leaving 1945 with high max of 15.2 (yesterday  was 14.3).

It also broke last year's record of 8.8 for high min with a reading of 9.7 C. (1911 was 9.0 in CET legacy but reduced below 1945 at 8.6 which lost that to 2023). 

[WYorksWeather]

Interesting divergence between GFS and ECM for CET record prospects tonight. Differences in the development of a mild sector in the last three days of the month mean that GFS is probably on a knife edge for a record break, but ECM blows up the mild sector and would easily sail to the record even before accounting for typical under-reading.

[Optimus Prime]

February is looking like the December 2015 equivalent.

This comes of the back of a remarkable run of warm February's

2023 6.5

2022 6.9

2021 5.3

2020 6.5

2019 6.9

February is turning into a warm March bearing in mind the 61-90 average is 5.7 C.

Edited February 20 by Optimus Prime

[Weather-history]

 Optimus Prime 

If it were the December 2015 equivalent , wouldn't the CET be nearer to 10?

December 2015 was the "Bob Beamon" of the records, it absolutely smashed the old record by a margin.  We are not totally sure February 2024 will even beat the record.

Edited February 20 by Weather-history

[Optimus Prime]

 Weather-history  Weather-history  Weather-history February is looking like the December 2015 equivalent.

This comes of the back of a remarkable run of warm February's

2023 6.5

2022 6.9

2021 5.3

2020

No, I would say a CET of 8.8 C would do it. That would give us an anomaly of 5 C above normal, like 2015. It would also clear the previous record by 0.8 C. 

Admittedly December 2015 measures a full 1.5 C above the previous record so this month, if 8.8 C is the end result, would need a full statistical analysis to determine its significance amongst the data set for Feb.

 

 

[Weather-history]

 Optimus Prime

Yes anomaly wise, it could be viewed that way, I agree.

 

[Scorcher]

I still think December 2015 was the most remarkable month ever recorded as it was so much warmer than most people thought possible.

At least in February the sun is considerably stronger and the days much longer so the potential for higher temperatures is far greater (even if in reality it's often colder than December).

So if this month does break the record I think it will be very noteworthy, but not quite on the scale of December 2015.

[Derecho]

 WYorksWeather A few days ago the EC had 8.6C to the 22nd whilst the GFS only had 8.0C from its forecast. Even the milder EC came in as an underestimate. If we end up as absurdly high as 8.8C then I think this mornings EC would be enough as the 27th-29th are mild. GFS cooler again but no surprise there.

[Derecho]

Based on the EC 00z this morning with daily mean followed by rolling monthly mean in brackets:

20th: 9.7C (8.7C)
21st: 10.5C (8.8C)
22nd: 7.7C (8.7C)
23rd:  5.6C (8.6C)
24th: 5.4C (8.4C)
25th: 5.9C (8.3C)
26th: 5.7C (8.2C)
27th: 6.6C (8.2C)
28th: 9.1C (8.2C)
29th: 8.0C (8.2C)

So even if the EC is cool biased it still breaks the record comfortably.

[LetItSnow!]

 Derecho Means the winter C.E.T. would roughly be around 6.6C so we're heading for around 3rd to 5th place in terms of the warmest winter ever. The question is are we going down 2022 route where the warm anomalies go into a hot summer or a 1998/2007 route where it all collapses as we go into the summer. Despite being warmer now these anomalies have to break at some point.

 

Edit: Just to add about how ridiculously warm February is now, if we come in around 8.2C then the rolling 10 year average for February will be a ridiculous 5.9C, over 2C above normal. February really is the month that seems to be warming the most.

Edited February 20 by LetItSnow!