February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

I just updated previous post tracking a record "warmest week" all within February, the winner is:

 

01 __ 14-20 Feb 2024 ___ 10.66 (21st would need to beat 14th 9.5 to increase this)

now 15-21 Feb 2024 ____ 10.67 (21st was 9.6). 

 

Also can confirm a 31-day interval from 21 Jan to 20 Feb 2024 averaged 8.29 above previous record (for 31-days within Jan-Feb) of 8.0 set 14 Jan to 13 Feb 2002. This could increase slightly if today's average beats 7.9 to replace 21 Jan. 

Note: 8.34 to 8.35 is new maximum value as 9.6 added 1.7 to total divided by 31 adding .05, it just about rounds off to 8.4 now as it's probably 8.35 but below rounding (like 8.348), anyway metoffice probably would calculate it from average max and min and get a somewhat different result, I averaged daily mean CET to get my numbers. 

 

Edited February 22 by Roger J Smith

[WYorksWeather]

Rough means are 9.5C Rothamsted, 10.5C Pershore, 8.5C Stonyhurst, so expecting a mean around 9.5C for today.

We're at 8.68C so far based on the published values. Expecting around 8.72C tomorrow.

Then, the fall begins, so a lot will depend on how cold we go (particularly minima) and whether we see another warmup around 27th-29th.

[Don]

54 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Then, the fall begins, so a lot will depend on how cold we go (particularly minima) and whether we see another warmup around 27th-29th.

Now would you bet against that?! 

[LetItSnow!]

 WYorksWeather Apple Weather app showing a 0C minima on Saturday night for central London, almost spat my nonexistent drink out my mouth!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It could end up neither falling short or surpassing 1779 , but matching the 7.9C. Either way, I agree the 28th and 29th will be key. The minimums on those days start to rise. 

Edited February 21 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[WYorksWeather]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see That's definitely a possibility as well. Another key will be the 9am-9am recording. For example, tomorrow some CET stations may scrape a double digit maximum due to the timing of the departure of the mild air, but a shift of even a couple of hours could make all the difference. If the mild air departs at 10am we get an extra day with a double digit max for the CET stations. If it departs at 8am, we don't.

Anyway, we will soon see what happens.

[Derecho]

Mean temps on the EC12z as close to possible to Stonyhurst, Pershore and Rothamstad on the 12z EC are as follows:

21st: 9.6C (8.7C)
22nd: 7.1C (8.7C)
23rd: 3.8C (8.4C)
24th: 3.2C (8.2C)
25th: 2.3C (8.0C)
26th: 2.7C (7.8C)
27th: 4.7C (7.7C)
28th: 8.7C (7.7C)
29th: 8.3C (7.7C)

So the EC from the 23rd to 26th is a bit too chilly for us to beat the record. The minima on the morning of the 25th and 27th are pretty cold. Clear skies and slack winds being the culprit. If it is a bit cloudier then expected the daily means might hold up more but it'll still come in a bit short of 7.9C I reckon.

[Roger J Smith]

Feb 1779 is like that friend or relative who asks if they can couch surf while they look for work and years later they are still there.

[Weather-history]

Rolling exceptionally wet 12 month periods for the EWP

April 2000-March 2001 EWP: 1355.4mm

That should be safe come the end of this February. 

 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Roger J Smith the couch has outlived the house Roger!

It demonstrates why that record has stood the test of time.  Even this super charged month is going to struggle to shift it.

How close are we now to the Feb EWP record?

Edited February 22 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Roger J Smith]

Looking for a top ten Feb EWP now, I just edited scoring back a few days to an expected 132 mm and it could go even above 132, but top 15 now are as follows:

_01 __ 169.5 _ 2020

_02 __ 158.6 _ 1833

_03 __ 152.7 _ 1923

_04 __ 143.6 _ 1950

_05t__ 143.2 _ 1977, 1990

_07 __ 142.1 _ 1937

_08 __ 136.7 _ 2014

_09 __ 132.0 _ 1916

_10 __ 131.7 _ 1900

_11 __ 130.0 _ 1848

_12 __ 129.6 _ 1966

_13 __ 129.1 _ 1768

_14 __ 124.2 _ 1925

_15 __ 123.5 _ 1915

(16th is 116 mm which is probably about where 2024 is already)

[Summer Sun]

8.7c to the 21st

4.9c above the 61 to 90 average
4.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Seems to achieve even just average mean temps in the winter months we need a true polar maritime NW veering N airstream as we have now, 20 years ago plus such an airstream would bring below means. An airstream between south and north west will always be mild/ very mild. Only a north to south east airstream will bring below.

In summer, only an airstream between NW and NE bring below.

 

[Roger J Smith]

Yesterday's average of 9.6 raises the already reported weekly record by .01 to 10.67, and it creates an even higher 31-day average since 21 Jan was 7.9, raising that from 8.29 to 8.34. 

[Summer8906]

 BruenSryan Is that right about 2019; wasn't July 2019 rather dry but January 2020 wet?

 damianslaw not so sure, I remember a number of straight W-lies or WNWlies which have produced cool conditions in summer. Good recent example the first half of July 2020 which was cool but didn't really feature northerlies; it was mostly westerlies or WNW-lies.

[BruenSryan]

 Summer8906 I misread that July 2019 was bang on 1991-2020 (100%) so yeah that period does not count. January 2020 was dry though with 88% of average, the daily totals below.

Edited February 22 by BruenSryan

[LetItSnow!]

27 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Good recent example the first half of July 2020 which was cool but didn't really feature northerlies; it was mostly westerlies or WNW-lies.

Agreed. The warm anomalies in the Atlantic last year stopped July 2023 from being cooler as if it had occured just a couple years earlier when the anomalies weren't present it would have been in the 15s for sure. If the same period had occured in July 2015 when the North Atlantic cold blob was present it would have been very chilly probably, even though July 2015 certianly wasn't spectacular for heat bar one day... I haven't checked so I don't know what it looks like now but if the warm anomalies relax or shift elsewhere and the Atlantic cools down closer to normal except westerlies to go back to somewhat normal.

 

IIRC for a while July 2020 was tracking in the upper 14s/low 15s. Damn that heat spike!

Edited February 22 by LetItSnow!

[summer blizzard]

 LetItSnow!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield managed to sneak another little rise in. So 8.1C +3.4C above average. Rainfall up to 90.7mm 139.1% of the monthly average sneaking just into the wettest top twenty. May sneak into the top ten when today's rain is measured. Little in the way of rain shown to the months end so unlikely to hit the 100mm.

[Summer8906]

 BruenSryan Interesting, July 2019 seemed dry (though rather cloudy) and January 2020 wet down here. I guess other parts of the country were wetter and drier, respectively; ISTR July 2019 having a lot of ill-defined slack westerlies or NW-lies which are not so wet directions here, SW-lies being our wettest. Jan 2020 on the other hand was very SW-ly so was presumably wet here.

[LetItSnow!]

 summer blizzard Still above but not as much so as last year. Wonder where they'll end up through the rest of the year. Time will answer that as always!

[Metwatch]

So it should at last start to slowly drop over the coming days, but for the first 3 weeks of February, a value of 8.7C is nothing short of insanity.

For perspective, that's about as warm as an average modern day April (1981-10 CET average is 8.5C and 1991-20 avg is 9.0C), and similar to some of the coldest Mays in the last few hundred years.

[WYorksWeather]

I'm having trouble with the weatherobs site this evening, but based on Pershore and Rothamsted I'll go for a conservative estimate of 6C for today.

[damianslaw]

 Metwatch Yes blame the combo of exceptionaly warm SSTs to our SW and the fact much of the month has seen an airstream from between south and west. Its extreme on a par with Dec 2015 incidentally an El Nino year...

Edited February 22 by damianslaw

[Derecho]

 WYorksWeather From the obs I can see, 5.9C is my best guess... but this is based off midnight to midnight obs....

Based on the EC 12z...

22nd: 5.9 (8.6)
23rd: 3.7 (8.4)
24th: 3.1 (8.2)
25th: 4.9 (8.0)
26th: 4.8 (7.9)
27th: 4.6 (7.8)
28th: 8.8 (7.8)
29th: 7.6 (7.8)

So the 23rd and 24th look the only colder then average days now. 25th looking less cold as the low pressure is set to move across closer to the UK with air a little less cold. 27th is pegged back by the cold morning.

The remaining days are set to have an average of 5.4C. If that mean comes in half a degree higher (5.9C) the record is gone.

Edited February 23 by Derecho