February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Derecho]

If we presume the 3.1C is the actual value for yesterday, the EC is going for:

25th: 3.9C (8.1C)
26th: 5.2C (8.0C)
27th: 3.3C (7.8C) - Pegged back significantly by a chilly night forecast
28th: 5.2C (7.7C) 
29th: 7.2C (7.7C) - May rise if the chillier air from the west takes longer to arrive

However it probably won't be enough, the mild weather from the 27th to 29th has been downgraded so 7.7-7.8C is likely the final figure.

This is based off calculating the max and min temps on the EC from 0000 to 0000 and dividing by 2 which is probably the closest way to resemble the CET figures, I think I've read in the past it might be 0600 to 0600 though?

Edited February 25 by Derecho

[Daniel*]

Min this morning 

-2.6C Pershore 

-2C Rothamsted 

0.2C Stonyhurst

looks to return a very similar mean to yesterday around 3C which is colder than what Derecho has.

[Derecho]

 Daniel*

Is the Pershore station a different one to that on weatherobs?

Your min obs for Rothamstad and Stonyhurst match the ones I had but the Pershore above looks like it dropped to around freezing?

Edit: Ah yeah I stand corrected, the Pershore station just to the north was much colder so that brings down todays predicted mean to 3.5C

Edited February 25 by Derecho

[Daniel*]

 Derecho hi I use meteociel as far as I know it’s official station.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Relevés horaires des observations météo de Pershore ( United Kingdom ) . Températures, pression, précipitations, vent en temps réel

 

[Derecho]

 Daniel* Makes sense it is the more rural site. I had used Pershore college all this time as I thought that was the station. Ooops

Edited February 25 by Derecho

[dryfie]

03529 is the airfield, the Met Office Tier 1 site.

99059 is the Agricultural College, the Tier 2 site.

I imagine that the college is used for CET as it would presumably have the longer history, and is in line with the other CET sites.

[kold weather]

Today could get us into the top 10 wettest Febraury, even though the spatial area covered by the rain isn't too large, it will give some stations quite large totals which will help to boost the average up even despite small coverage.

Still some uncertainties regarding the evolution of 27-29th, looks like two weak fronts followed by a stronger cold front pushing through at some point on the 29th. 

At the moment it feels like the landing range is somewhere between 140-150mm, still enough uncertainty that a little either side is also possible, I do think though that the all time record from 2020 is safe now, would take a rather large shift in the synoptic pattern to get us to average over 40mm between now and the 29th. Some in the south may manage that, but the vast majority won't.

Edited February 25 by kold weather

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 24th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited February 25 by Summer Sun

[kold weather]

 Weather-history 

Currently upto 1305mm rolling 12 months. Won't be far away from that record come the end of the month, must be 2nd or 3rd place ever I'd have guessed?

March 23 was pretty wet so we will probably slip a little once that leaves, but a a modestly wet month in March still puts us within shot of that all time record given both May/June were below average months last year, if either one comes in decently wet it'd again make things very tight.

Edited February 25 by kold weather

[Derecho]

 Summer Sun A mean of 3.9C for yesterday suggests that Pershore College is indeed the site the Met Office use.

If the 27th and 29th come in milder then there is still a chance we may only drop to 8.0C and set a new record but the odds are slim.

[Scorcher]

 Derecho No point jumping to conclusions yet (people have done this a lot in this thread in previous warmth months and been proven wrong)- those numbers are only estimates based on raw data. If there ends up being more cloud cover on Tuesday for example it could be considerably warmer than the figure you've suggested there. 

Edited February 25 by Scorcher

[snowray]

 Scorcher

It's been so mild this winter in western Europe generally speaking that we would probably need some very cold uppers in place at this time of the year to see low daytime temps, has felt more like late March down here. I can see night temps still being quite low next week, it would seem to me that it will be the last 2 days that will decide the fate of the February CET record.

Strong SE wind along the south coast, now veering more easterly, just started raining and temp up to 8c. Possibly almost 24 hours of PPN to come from this channel low, all rain of course south of the M4, another top up to PPN totals.

I remember having an old Weather Lore book when I was at school, probably printed well before my time in the 1940s/1950s, explained a lot about weather fronts, wind direction, air pressure. I remember for late winters it would say, beware in late winters pressure falling, SE/East winds off the cold continent, likelihood of widespread heavy snow particularly in the SE of the UK, with a picture of a village in Kent covered in thick snow. Joke!

Edited February 25 by snowray

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Derecho said:

A mean of 3.9C for yesterday suggests that Pershore College is indeed the site the Met Office use.

I guess that is a better one to use for the CET data as the other "actual" Pershore station often gets quite warm compared to others in the area, but then at the same time that is also much more of a frost hollow by night. That's what i've noticed when looking on Meteociel quite often anyway, larger diurnal ranges, not sure if it makes that much of a difference overall.

Edited February 25 by Metwatch

[Derecho]

 Scorcher Agreed, I just like to follow things with close interest when there are potential records to be set!

The analysis just a conclusion of what a model is showing but we know of course there are caveats - especially when it comes to cloud and overnight minima... working as a winter roads forecaster in the past makes me painfully aware of that 

It was similar to September last year when we were uncertain of whether the record would go or not.

[WYorksWeather]

To add my own contribution here, think it's worth again flagging up the value in two decimals, since we're at a point where it makes a difference. Today we're at 8.31, so not much difference actually to using the raw 8.3 figure in this case.

Regardless, we do need to consider here the 9am-9am recording. This does generally make it harder to achieve very low maxima or very high minima, so compared to Derecho's midnight-midnight figures it does explain the differences we're seeing.

I believe, based on a previous post by @Roger J Smith (please correct me if I misunderstood - went and searched back through a few threads), that it works like this.

For minima, we take the 24 hours up to 9am on the day stated. For today, the 25th February, the period in scope is from 9am on the 24th February to 9am on the 25th February. For maxima, it's the same, but the 24 hours up to 9pm. So for today, the 25th February, the period in scope is from 9pm on the 24th February to 9pm on the 25th February.

Since a 'day' is therefore composed of temperature readings from a total of 36 hours, it makes it harder to achieve either very low maxima or very high minima. This slightly odd method of calculation dates back to old manual measurements, which would typically be taken twice a day at 9am and 9pm, for the preceding 24 hours, and is maintained for the CET to allow for consistency with these very old recording methods.

If I've explained this correctly, and this is indeed how it works, pending any corrections from Roger, then it means we have something like the following. The lowest reading at Pershore was around -2C early this morning around 6am, and today's max is around 8C, so the mean is 3C. Rothamsted looks like around -1C min and 6C max. I would expect Stonyhurst is a bit higher, but I can't see it on Meteociel. Using some nearby stations I'd estimate 3-4C for that one. Of course, this discounts any inter-hourly measurements, which may have been slightly higher and/or lower.

Overall mean probably near 3C for today. UKV model guidance does have low double figure maxes for the 29th, so it may come down to that last day.

[Rheidolinflood]

The very mild February also contributing to a notable position for the winter season in the CET series. December 2023 to February 2024 may well enter a top five position in the mildest winters since 1659.

Top ten ranked winters for CET so far are:

1. 2016  6.8
2. 1869  6.7
3. 1834  6.6
4. 2007  6.5
5. 1989  6.5
6. 1975  6.4
7. 1686  6.3
8. 1796  6.2
9. 2020  6.2
10. 1935  6.1 (together with 1990, 2014, 1734).

If February 2024 finishes on 8.0 and beats the February record, 2024 will land up joint third with 1834 at 6.6 (rounded from 6.56). Another remarkable result in the trend for mild winters for the CET series this century.

 

 

Edited February 25 by Rheidolinflood

[TonyH]

 Metwatch Pershore College can be warmest in UK as often as Pershore, it's the Vale of Evesham effect.

[Scorcher]

Much milder this morning. Wouldn't surprise me if today ends up over 6C overall.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Dropped to 8.1 today. Starting to think 1779 is indeed safe at the top.

[Derecho]

 BlueSkies_do_I_see It's still close, today should return another CET in the 3s though rather then the 6s because of the forecast minima for tonight.

Based on 24 hour means from 0000 to 0000 I have the CET finishing at 7.87C. Based on the max/min from 0600 to 0600  I have 7.81C

February 1779 had a CET OF 7.87C so it is very very close. 1779 wins it to 3 decimal places 

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 25th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Scorcher]

 Derecho It's based on 9:00 am to 9:00 am I think, as WYorksWeather has alluded to. So those midnight to midnight calculations don't mean that much in reality.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

 Scorcher it is based 9am to 9am as I have read that a lot in the past on here. Does that change things much?

It could drop 7.9 to the 26th, 7.7 to the 27th then rise 7.8 to the 28th, and then all be hinging on the 29th..

Edited February 26 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Weather-history]

 Scorcher  BlueSkies_do_I_see

Never understood this, a specific date is midnight to midnight, so why isn't all data based on this principle as well ? 

[Weather-history]

Anyone remember the late Philip Eden had a Manley version of the CET?   I wonder what the Manley version of recent CETs would have been?