February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Weather-history]

Interestingly, for such an exceptionally mild winter month for the CET, the EWP could end up having a higher total value than that for Scotland. That is a bit of an oddity.

 

[Roger J Smith]

"For crying out loud.  I’ve tried to explain, to no avail, that in the past readings were taken just once a day, at 0900.  Therefore the readings taken were the max and min over the past 24 hours, no attempt being made to allocate them to 2 x 12 hours, as that would be based on assumptions, not fact.  Some sites still use this convention, so all must."

So therefore you must believe that this 0900 reading of max goes back to previous calendar day in records (as one obvious example the super hot day 19th July 2022 was presumably recorded at 0900h 20 July although I believe it was already observed at the various sites at 2100h of 19th), and the min recorded at 0900h stays with same calendar day for min. But I believe that CET data (and possibly various stations on 0900 system) are at least reviewed by an observer at 2100 and if temps have been falling between 0900 and 2100 a new daily min can (and certainly should) be recorded. Let's see what happens on 29 Feb, I believe the min observed to 0900 on 29 Feb will be considerably higher than the min observed by 2100h because temps are likely to fall steadily during day and early evening of 29 Feb. What they note in tables as min for 29 Feb could answer this question.

Also, I wonder if an actual stakeholder in CET can confirm what happens. If anyone with past success at having e-mails answered wants to give it a go ... 

[Roger J Smith]

 

"In terms of where we're at, we're at 7.833C. The record is 7.871C."

 

Just wondering, do you calculate by simple arithmetic of numbers in "mean CET" table or do you look at an overall average of CET max and min values? I came to the opinion that CET tables are based on some kind of calculation of (mean max  + mean min) / 2 whereas anything I ever post about CET is done by the simple arithmetic method. I also wonder if they adjust for any rounded daily means (cases with an odd and even digit in play e.g. 7.0 and 1.3). What blunts that problem for CET is a system where they don't round all of these upwards, some are rounded downwards. They could cancel out.  

 

[Metwatch]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

EWP could end up having a higher total value than that for Scotland. That is a bit of an oddity.

500hPa geopotential height anomaly this month (up to 26th February):

Trough has most often been placed placed slightly north east of Scotland. I can sort of see why Scotland has been a little drier, as it is often on the back end / colder part of the trough where there is less moisture compared to further south, the jet is also slightly displaced further south at times due to heights for eastern Canada, pushing rain further south as well.

Edited February 28 by Metwatch

[dryfie]

 Roger J Smith try *****@*****.tld

 *****@*****.tld

Mark.

mccarthy@

metoffice.

gov.

uk

Edited February 28 by dryfie

[TillyS]

A much milder night, so far, than was anticipated by forecasters so maybe after all the record could be equalled or go. Even with the rain moving south-eastwards, temps are holding up - still double digit.

The point is that today (29th) might possibly see a rise. It’s tight.

[Rheidolinflood]

CET for 28th 6.4 C. With mild temps last night and today this could be very close!

EDIT: Remaining at 7.8 C to the 28th.

 

Edited February 29 by Rheidolinflood

[TillyS]

Well this is a surprise (to me): the CET has stayed at 7.8C up to the 28th incl.

Just about a chance of a 0.1C rise today?

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to the 28th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Derecho]

23 hours ago, Derecho said:

However what confuses me is that the max and min CET yesterday came out at 8.2C and -0.7C respectively. The minimums yesterday at Rothamstad, Pershore College and Stonyhurst were 1.7C, 2.6C and 3.8C respectively all recorded at 9am yesterday morning.

So they are too mild but the minimums the earlier in the night at hourly points were -0.1C, -0.8C and -0.6C at these 3 sites.

So it must be the minimum from the previous night up to 9am and the maximum on the day up to 9pm...

 

20 hours ago, dryfie said:

For crying out loud.  I’ve tried to explain, to no avail, that in the past readings were taken just once a day, at 0900.  Therefore the readings taken were the max and min over the past 24 hours, no attempt being made to allocate them to 2 x 12 hours, as that would be based on assumptions, not fact.

What you've said contradicts the data I've got above though and using the method I've got above the value is indeed very close to 6.4C for the 28th.

Otherwise how can the below freezing minima for the 27th be explained if they occurred before 0900?

I don't think there is any need for that tone, people are only trying to understand some data that is poorly documented.

Edited February 29 by Derecho

[dryfie]

 Derecho Agreed, please accept my apologies.

If you think it's bad here, how about living in Australia.  Every MO in the world use the same reporting codes, and everybody uses GMT, whereever they are.

These reports from Sydney show that the days maximum is reported at 1300 (32.8), the minimum at 0100 (22.6) and the rainfall at 2200 (nil).

So that's the max in the early hours, the min around lunchtime and the rainfall around midnight!  Granted these may just be for international distribution, with internal reports being different.

 

94768, Sydney Regional Office (Australia)
ICAO index: ----. Latitude 33-51-38S. Longitude 151-12-18E. Altitude 39 m.

SYNOPS from 94768, Sydney Regional Office (Australia)SN29/02/2024 16:00->

SN29/02/2024 14:00->

AAXX 29144

94768 45/// ///// 10231 20208 30113 40164==

SN29/02/2024 13:00->

AAXX 29134

94768 45/// ///// 10232 20207 30105 40156 51021 333 10328==

SM29/02/2024 12:00->

AAXX 29124

94768 45/// ///// 10231 20206 30106 40157==

SN29/02/2024 11:00->

AAXX 29114

94768 45/// ///// 10241 20208 30095 40146==

SN29/02/2024 10:00->

AAXX 29104

94768 45/// ///// 10281 20226 30084 40135 53027==

SI29/02/2024 09:00->

AAXX 29094

94768 45/// ///// 10281 20221 30069 40120==

SN29/02/2024 08:00->

AAXX 29084

94768 45/// ///// 10285 20225 30065 40116==

SN29/02/2024 07:00->

AAXX 29074

94768 45/// ///// 10287 20227 30057 40108 58002==

SM29/02/2024 06:00->

AAXX 29064

94768 45/// ///// 10301 20235 30059 40110==

SN29/02/2024 05:00->

AAXX 29054

94768 45/// ///// 10285 20232 30060 40111==

SN29/02/2024 04:00->

AAXX 29044

94768 45/// ///// 10301 20233 30059 40110 58013==

SI29/02/2024 03:00->

AAXX 29034

94768 45/// ///// 10314 20245 30064 40115==

SN29/02/2024 02:00->

AAXX 29024

94768 45/// ///// 10310 20241 30069 40120==

SN29/02/2024 01:00->

AAXX 29014

94768 45/// ///// 10302 20236 30072 40123 58010 333 20226==

SM29/02/2024 00:00->

AAXX 29004

94768 45/// ///// 10288 20232 30077 40128==

SN28/02/2024 23:00->

AAXX 28234

94768 45/// ///// 10274 20232 30081 40132==

SN28/02/2024 22:00->

AAXX 28224

94768 05/// ///// 10247 20222 30082 40133 58002 333 70000==

SI28/02/2024 21:00->

AAXX 28214

94768 45/// ///// 10233 20216 30085 40136==

SN28/02/2024 20:00->

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.3C +2.5C above average. Rainfall 98.1mm 150% of the monthly average.

Will finish on 7.3C unless it gets very warm overnight which isn't forecast to do.

[Snowyowl9]

This CET has dropped alot since I last looked from 8.7c..

Been around 4 air frosts here..

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker will finish near 148 mm, will wait for table value on 5th to determine winner (Frigid 130 mm, stewfox 166 mm). 

[Derecho]

CET yesterday should come out to around 7.6C, so a monthly mean of 7.77C, about 0.1C short of 1779.

[Roger J Smith]

1779 is apparently still on the couch ... a 7.5 (report) for 29 Feb leaves 2024 0.1 short at 7.8.  

... (not a prediction, a report) ... 

Edited March 1 by Roger J Smith

[SqueakheartLW]

 Roger J Smith

By my calculations we get

• Anything above around 0C to 9.9C for 29th secures 2nd position so I think this one is definitely in the bag if we fail to beat 1779
• If we get exactly 10C we equal 1779 to 3 decimal places at 7.871C
• We need to see a 10.1C or more for the 29th to beat the record
• 10.1C would see a Feb 24 mean of 7.874C, a new record by 0.003C

[reef]

Its confirmed as 7.8C.

Winter in 5th place at 6.5C.

Edited March 1 by reef

[Relativistic]

Oh how depressing.

[Wade]

 That says it all for England really doesn't it. 

[Summer18]

Ooh I was only 0.1 off! An absolutely horrid month to be sent to the dustbin of weather history. 

[MattStoke]

Warmest February on record for England and Wales.

Warmest February on record for England and Wales

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

England and Wales had their respective warmest Februarys on record according to provisional Met Office statistics in what was a mild and wet month for many.

 

[Don]

 Summer18 I was only 3C off!! 

So much for February being the month to look forward to this winter!

[reef]

Its worth noting the 30 year average (1995-2024) is now 5.4C compared to 3.8C for the 1961-1990 average.

The 1961-1990 average for March was 5.7C!

[SqueakheartLW]

 reef

You may as well say the 4 seasons are now more like the following

• Winter now last week of Dec to first week of Feb (Down to 7 weeks)
• Spring 2nd week Feb to 1st week May (Still around 13 weeks)
• Summer 2nd week May to 3rd week Sep (Now up to 19 weeks)
• Autumn last week Sep to 3rd week Dec (Still around 13 weeks)