Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[BarnetBlizzard]

Easterly incoming on GFS? 

[ICE COLD]

@northwestsnow - yep really poor output . Even in FI there’s not a lot to shout about . Don’t even look at the gem it’s horrible. Away from the favored spots up north I can’t see anything noticeable uk wide as in a decent cold spell . It will no doubt come towards the back end of feb and March and we’re be all screaming 4 5 weeks earlier

[northwestsnow]

  @ICE COLD 

Let's see what EC says but I agree with you entirely

GFS 300hrs

 

Edited January 29 by northwestsnow

[That ECM]

[That ECM]

At T168 there’s some big differences, no wonder there’s low confidence. 

[Daniel*]

Hemispherically the latest GFS is very good albeit at day 10+… scrubs high heights in Europe, blocking extends our side of hemisphere. Trop vortex looks on ropes here. 

[Harsh Climate]

  @ICE COLD

Models are all over the place at the moment with pretty much everything on the table in what is possible for Februrary.

I think the models will latch on to something interesting within a few days and we will build on that for the next cold/wintry spell.

Models already showing interest at the 144h range, showing an incoming northerly of some sort. Let's see if this alone can upgrade over the next day or so.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Another poor set of 12z runs!

[SLEETY]

Come back in 6 weeks and I think the models will start showing some fantastic HLB and Southerly tracking lows which will then verify. Same old story. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

40 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hemispherically

I really don't know where you find the optimism daniel..but fair enough,if this is the best what's on offer at day 10 plus then we are not in a good place

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Met office stating in their extended forecast the uncertainty around the 5th February into mid February possibly 50/50 cold /average/mild take your pick but still saying mid month northerly on the cards.Looking at the charts this evening GFS brings in the Northwesterly/Northerly at 168 hrs be it a short blast 48 hrs till High pressure takes over from the south.Time for patience another 24/ 48 hrs to get closer to the possible solution.

[mulzy]

Very poor outlook - models have backtracked from showing any early push of cold - any cold is now day 10+.  The MetOffice long ranger gives us hope for something in the second half of February which is still out range of the NWP.

[sebastiaan1973]

I think this is a very good setting. Anticyclone at Scandinavia. This has potential. 

[Harsh Climate]

  @Lukesluckybunch

Check out the GFS 12z assembles, lots of great runs.

[nick sussex]

It’s like pulling teeth at the moment .

The UKMO goes backward after the 00hrs run . The GEM is just as woeful as the 00hrs .

The GFS has a brief northerly and then teases with high pressure to the ne.

The upstream trough set up is causing some issues.

Whilst the MJO continues to look favourable  let’s hope there’s a sudden switch to a clearer route to cold and the limpet high to the sw can finally be shown the door .

Edited January 29 by nick sussex

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Check out the GFS 12z assembles, lots of great runs.

Oh really harsh...ok will have a check..but if I'm honest there usually is decent ones showing up..but if there day 10 onwards they tend to disappear and not materialise

[tight isobar]

  @nick sussex   @nick sussex It’s abysmal output for any cold incursion northern most- let alone countrywide.. it’s almost as if the Azores is becoming energized, as the pv transfers east and elongating and rubber stamping it’s authority both to upstream dynamics.. and indeed European ones. Atm it’s very difficult to be optimistic in the foreseeable!!!

Edited January 29 by tight isobar

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Very poor outlook - models have backtracked from showing any early push of cold - any cold is now day 10+.  The MetOffice long ranger gives us hope for something in the second half of February which is still out range of the NWP.

The met added this today, evidently this is rather unclear in guidance at present but they must be seeing something. Drivers look more supportive of colder weather patterns in next few weeks in context of dying +IOD.. robust eQBO, El Niño starting to moderate and more climatological support for back loaded cold. Only time will tell but I doubt models have captured this period very well especially with evolving MJO in a slow orbit in phase 7, I do think it’s unlikely we see something significant in first 10 days of February but I do think the month as a whole is still quite open. 

“There is a chance colder conditions could then become established more widely during the first full week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather, especially northern and central UK”

[Jacob]

  @TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN People say that every year lol

[SLEETY]

  @TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN well for some reason  end of February and March now seems the best  time when we have the chance of seeing a long fetch Easterly outbreak. End of Feb 2018 into March and March 2013 are good examples. 

Let's hope the models pick up on something in a few weeks. 

[Daniel*]

 

[Harsh Climate]

Good GfS Assembles

ECM at 192H Good

.

Some people are hard to please.

[minus10]

Gefs 12z there is a reasonable signal for colder later in run...op there isnt...

 

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 216h

Yes, please!

[Daniel*]

Definitely feels model fatigue has crept in ECM not without interest… wintry in far north, pressure needs to drop to south.