Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Jordan S said:

I wouldn’t rule out the Gfs pattern for next week just deem it too progressive.

 

It seems that the mild solution is the most favourable at the moment.  Anything that can go wrong is going wrong! 

[Don]

 Nick F It has been consistent recently, which is a thread of hope I suppose, but the way winter has gone so far I'm very dubious and your fear is another factor to consider, even if HLB does materialise later in the month.

[Froze were the Days]

 Don Yes the EC46 I should think...not very accurate in January, predicted more of a muted signal of a continuation of heights to the north after the first initial week with the GP high. I'd say that model is okay for a week maybe two and forget week 3/4.

[WYorksWeather]

 Daniel* Depends on what you mean by the North Atlantic. The definition used by Climate Reanalyzer is actually record warm at the moment, by a large margin. In terms of locations, our immediate coasts are not that anomalous, but as I showed in my previous post, the whole of the North Atlantic is about 0.2-0.3C above the previous record for the time of year and about 1C above the average.

More local to us, it's the anomalies to our south-west that stand out at the moment. Ordinary westerlies will be largely as expected, but we've seen a lot of south-westerlies lately. Given the anomalies, any Tm airmass originating in the Azores is effectively turbo-charged mild at the moment.

[Froze were the Days]

 Nick F Massive Iberian Heights partly to blame and a very mild European continent...

[damianslaw]

 Nick F I'm reminded of Feb 13, which saw high pressure slowly inch in from the east mid month on, after a complex second week Feb which saw low pressure come unstuck then a brief mild SW flow, whilst heights lurked to our east.

[Don]

 Froze were the Days Again is this a result of the expanding Hadley cell?

[Singularity]

The 12z & 18z GFS runs for next Wed onward had ~16% support from the 12z EPS. So at this stage it seems like a case of GFS’s classic progressive bias at hand - let’s see if that changes much tomorrow.

[Nick F]

 Froze were the Days Think there is something in the idea that sub-tropical high pressure belts have shifted further north in winter recently, preventing cold getting as far south as it used to and explains drought persisting through the winter months now in southern Europe, as far north as the Alps.

The pub run trying to make up for its horror show with a BFTE tease at the end.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes the EC46 I should think...not very accurate in January, predicted more of a muted signal of a continuation of heights to the north after the first initial week with the GP high. I'd say that model is okay for a week maybe two and forget week 3/4.

Thing is though, it's even showing much of the UK to be colder than average as early as next week with the exceptions being the far north west of Scotland and most of Ireland where it looks to be average.

Edited February 6 by Don

[damianslaw]

 Nick F Might be a case again of the GFS sniffing out the direction of travel i.e. an easterly, but plays around with various fayre in getting there including balmy south westerlies. It doesn't follow the script of the ECM 46 day outputs and other anomaly charts for second half Feb which indicate a trough to our NE and heights to our NW.. but a longer path to such a scenario, the retrogressing high..

In the meantime model watching presently is dumb founding me, as the expected outcomes seem not to be occuring making me question my ability to sense things clearly. It is a very odd state of affairs we are in, but this winter has felt plain odd in all ways, with sudden developments making a mockery of things, certainly a very dynamic winter with abrupt changes. 

Edited February 6 by damianslaw

[Nick F]

 damianslaw It's certainly been a painful and frustrating winter chasing cold and wintry weather, been plenty promise, some opportunity in Jan with the two week cold spell with easterlies and northerlies, but very little reward for many. A lot of bad luck too.

[Daniel*]

35 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

Depends on what you mean by the North Atlantic. The definition used by Climate Reanalyzer is actually record warm at the moment, by a large margin. In terms of locations, our immediate coasts are not that anomalous, but as I showed in my previous post, the whole of the North Atlantic is about 0.2-0.3C above the previous record for the time of year and about 1C above the average.

Well it’s wrong to call it “North Atlantic” when it goes down to latitudes of equator. That is not the North Atlantic it’s all being tangled into one. 

[Daniel*]

Hardly inspiring GEFS but another GFS op on top end from start to finish today. 

 

Well there is some good agreement at d10 between ECM and GFS ens perhaps chilly rather than cold at the moment but something to work with heights quite strongly signalled to NE. And a gentle continental flow. I haven’t had a frost in a while.

 

Deeper into FI things become more possible with retrogression signal near Greenland EPS been quite persistent with that opens up more possibilities for deeper cold to be introduced. Overall not a terrible direction of travel but it’s not a fast path to glory, an opportunity for regular night frost to cool the ground, dry with sunny spells offering good useable weather. Then we should be more primed for something of more significance… later than we’d like but beggars can’t be choosers. 

Edited February 7 by Daniel*

[Kentspur]

These GFS warm outliers appear to be nonstop on recent runs let's hope its not the trend setter like it was when the last cold spell fell apart!

[feb1991blizzard]

Interesting Stratosphere charts, a wide split @ 20mb, not so wide as you go down the layers

but then not a defined Canadian segment at all higher up

Which looks like a trop induced wave 2, but the 0z GFS was as flat as a pancake.

Edited February 7 by feb1991blizzard

[carinthian]

Morning all. UKMO charts for tomorrow shows a bit of resistance against the milder incursion. Will be a cold day across the North with temp struggling to get above freezing , say north of the Humber.Could be a fair bit of snow, especially above 200m. Looking further a head , GFS op seems to be on warm crusade presently but generally against its own mean runs .. Of course could be on the money ? The longer term trends seem to be a rise in pressure to the east.

 C

Edited February 7 by carinthian

[feb1991blizzard]

That last post its posted the wrong charts.

 

 

 

Edited February 7 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

These are the charts we need to be seeing more of.

[Drifter]

Horrific charts across the board this morning. Not even any ‘potential’ to grab on to. 

Edited February 7 by Drifter

[IDO]

The GFS and GEM means remain hopeful for the last week of Feb for a colder pattern (D8-16):

But with the initial rise in heights being an Iberian ridge/UK heights, that means a long wait for cold. The London 2m temps:

And, of course, in 16 days background signal could change. The lack of core cold in Europe and its distance to travel to reach the UK means a long wait:

The mean ^^^ even at D16, only has -4c uppers just breaching N Scotland!

All models have warmer air pumping up from the Iberian region, therefore preventing any cold air from the north. The EC at D10:

 

The UK is caught between the Eastern block/high and the Atlantic, mediocrity at best. Hoping they are all wrong.

[Dennis]

snow to liverpool tomorrow

[MJB]

I can't see the METO moving away from the signal of cold just yet, some crackers amongst that lot.  

[Alderc 2.0]

Output looking good, winter coming to an end and gfs thinks it’s going out with a whimper. 
 

Needs something exceptional to deliver proper cold down here late February onwards 

[Dennis]

its waiting and waiting 

we need first some AO blocking and it shows up.....

 

 

the result must lead to an GH-Scandi block from midmonth

Edited February 7 by Dennis