Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[WYorksWeather]

ECM much the same as GFS earlier. Some tendency towards a cooldown, but only at the very end and well outside the reliable.

Unfortunately, the continued to trend to delay and downgrade cold spells continues. Even a couple of days ago, the ECM was returning conditions to near average from around the 18th, and that is increasingly being delayed to the 20th or beyond.

Long range

In terms of longer range, we can compare EC46 and CFSv2 again. Again, these models aren't worth very much but still somewhat insightful to see if there are any robust signals.

EC weeks 1-3 (12th-19th February, 19th-26th February, 26th February-4th March):

EC weeks 4-6 (4th-11th March, 11th-18th March, 18th-25th March):

Overall the consensus from EC is near normal, possibly slightly above normal at times in the south and a little below in the north. No clear signal for cold though.

CFSv2 weeks 1-4 (10th-16th February, 17th-23rd February, 24th February-1st March, 2nd-9th March):

CFSv2 is more significantly above average in the south, and generally probably slightly warmer overall. Difference is probably partly due to different baselines - ECM is 20-year whereas CFSv2 is 1999-2010 which has less accounting for recent warming trends.

Sea surface temperatures

My usual winter expiry date checker still shows we have a way to go. Here are the North Atlantic SSTs at day 0 and day 15:

Still a cooling trend, though we're at the point where this is possibly beginning to slow down right at the very end.

SSW / zonal winds

The ECM mean still shows a zonal wind reversal, though some outliers still fail to reverse the zonal winds. The most likely date for a reversal has been pushed back a couple of days compared to earlier on this week, now likely for around the 20th February.  This will increasingly push any effects out of meteorological winter and into spring.

Most runs are still showing a very weak vortex after the reversal, though a few outliers show a rapid return to climatological strength. More to be resolved on the nature of this SSW if it does occur, as expected.

Summary

Not a cold outlook for now, more of a business-as-usual late winter kind of setup. Not very mild for the most part, just milder than average. Unfortunately a large amount of rain in the forecast which will not be pleasant for many given we already have 76 flood warnings for England as of the time of this post.

[blizzard81]

The ecm op has had a habit of playing catch up when cold is down the line this winter. 

[Jordan S]

Here’s the increased snow chance I highlighted for this upcoming week

Ah well, sometimes forecasts don’t go to plan on a more widespread scale but that’s the nature of weather of course.  

Anyway, going into more detail of what may happen for end of next week and beyond again but relatively quickly..

Not much more to add from my previous post on the outlook for next week other than emphasising the brief drier conditions that may develop more widely at the end of next week, over northern areas Thursday/Friday especially Scotland with wet conditions likely continuing for some southern and western regions at this time, then those drier conditions likely further south by Saturday with winds switching from the southwest/west to possibly then from the east/southeast with that higher pressure mentioned previously that moves over to our east/northeast along with that slightly colder air perhaps into eastern parts. 

Sunday 18th/ Monday 19th more unsettled conditions are more likely to move into Ireland and Northern Ireland, heralding a possible slow northeastwards progression of wet weather for some as the week beginning 19th February goes on, but most or all of the unsettled weather at the moment looking like being mainly in the west and south west through the first half of that week 19th/20th/21st with higher pressure again to our northeast perhaps keeping things drier further east and north for a time.

With regards to what I’ve mentioned in a few posts with a likelihood of high pressure to our north/northwest as well through this period this still looks true to an extent but the emphasis on any possible snowfall along boundaries of weather fronts looks have shifted to later in the time period and to be for hills,  mainly for Scotland if any weather fronts work that far north.

Winds may blow from the northwest more widely later in the following week  onwards towards the end of February though as heights lower to our immediate north and northwest (though staying relatively high close to Iceland/Greenland at times) and pressure more likely than not increasing and moving closer to our southwest around the 21st-26th February, this would increase the chance of more widespread wintry showers into northwestern areas. especially over high ground but drier conditions and slightly higher temperatures in the southwest, south and east of the country, though not particularly mild.

Details may of course change somewhat as the time period moves closer, I expect that to be more likely to happen compared with normal, so expect adjustments to this as my updates go along, but I hope to have a steady forecast consistency in my posts once again soon. 

I will have another update posted early next week for anyone interested probably Tuesday time.

[blizzard81]

Feel like I'm the last one on the ship right now lol

[blizzard81]

Can't believe I'm doing this as I really don't rate this model at all lol. 6 days out though! Every dog has it's day? Plus, mogreps 12z is much improved on its previous runs. 

Edited February 10 by blizzard81

[Singularity]

Looking past the finer detail for a moment, the N Hem profile around D10 on the latest two GFS runs is something to behold.

That it’s not readily driving very cold air across our lands (well, not in the model version of events, at least), feels truly peculiar in a winter that’s been characterised by notably cold weather over Scandinavia. Something the modelling has repeatedly proven overly keen to bring to an end, which does make me wonder.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

mogreps 12z is much improved on its previous runs. 

You couldn't make it up! just as the met office texter changes to mild until way past the timeframe the mogreps cover!

[blizzard81]

 feb1991blizzard This is why Exeter downgrades are often music to my ears

[Dancerwithwings]

We’ll see if the trends for blocking will come apparent, but for now the HP anomalies are looking very promising and Jet stream is nowhere to be seen

[Don]

41 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is why Exeter downgrades are often music to my ears

I wonder if the Metoffice forecasters emit the odd swear word every now and then when viewing the models?! 

 blizzard81 you most certainly have staying power, that's for sure! 

[Vortex3929]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

I wonder if the Metoffice forecasters emit the odd swear word every now and then when viewing the models?! 

They do. I've heard them say barlett a few times on the deep dive videos..

[Don]

 Vortex3929 the swear words I'm thinking of wouldn't be said on their videos I can tell you! 

[Rain All Night]

9 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

Cheery lot you are in here today!

0z/6z deterministic runs, Sat 10th to Sat 17th (day 7)

Admittedly there's not a lot to be cheery about in the coming week; Thursday-ish looks wet when that next little low decides to make its way over the UK. By next weekend we finally start to see those height rises from the south which may give us some hope of subduing the Atlantic influence, at least temporarily.

0z/6z ensemble means, Sat 10th to Sun 25th (day 15)

Judging from these, we might hope to keep the Atlantic out from around 17th Feb for at least four or so days. The two GEFS means then become very interesting in terms of that signal I mentioned yesterday evening for mean low pressure to have moved to our east later on. The other two models do reach this conclusion as well, but are more hesitant.

Bonus

Screenshots taken from earth.nullschool.net yesterday and today; it's nice to watch that high pressure over Iberia get blasted away, even if only temporarily!

You wouldn't necessarily think it looking at that second screenshot above, but the weather at my location (inside the green circle) is actually rather fine today.

12z/18z deterministic runs, Sun 11th to Sat 17th (day 7)

The Asian models have made the most effort to entertain us this evening. ICON almost gives us back our phantom Scandi high. We can hope that the low which looks like it will pass through us between Wednesday and Friday will be the last most of us see of the Atlantic for a while.

12z/18z ensemble means, Sun 11th to Sun 25th (day 15)

It remains unclear for how long after 17th Feb we can expect to keep the Atlantic out. But perhaps I needn't worry, as the most interesting feature of these outputs (excepting the GEM) continues to be the suggestion that a cold trough from the northeast could pay us a visit in the last week of February.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Once again the cold is nowhere to been seen this morning..across the models!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Absolutely awful output..the cold over scandi..looks to be pushing further and further away..I think we end this run in southwesterlies..let's see

[KTtom]

 Lukesluckybunch yes, anyone who sees any sort of potential in the overnight runs clearly has their device upside down!

Maybe a crumb in the ens for end of the month but we know how fickle these are..

Edited February 11 by KTtom

[IDO]

GFS: The mean keeps something potentially cold in FI. D8-16 GEFS:

The GFS op is woeful and brings Winter to an ignominious end. We still have Spring to get some cold, but I am not expecting much. Back to the mean, the ens may pick up on the currently discarded op runs of mid-high lat blocking and gradually shift back to the op. Assuming the trop is running the game, the issue for me is that the Alaskan high migrates to the Arctic and stalls with the tPV circulating it. With no tropical forcing in the NH, it will stagnate near the Arctic, becoming useless as a driver for cold to mid-lats.

GEM: is different by D10:

EC: Similar to GFS up to D10:

Edited February 11 by IDO

[Dennis]

to much HP on a wrong pos.  (for now) 

warm west Europe cold Scandiland .... later could be better for cold 

 

Edited February 11 by Dennis

[Ali1977]

People are giving up too early, this is a good mean late on - let the SSW do its stuff , and I think winter still has a sting in its tail. BFTE was late Feb/early March and that was pretty severe - we could still get that and hopefully some longevity afterwards - and then we’ll all be ready for summer.

[KTtom]

 Ali1977 unfortunately Ali, due to CC I think these days we would need the Synoptic pattern mid Feb to deliver what BFTE devivered late Feb 6 years ago, and no model is hinting this type of pattern change yet.

Edited February 11 by KTtom

[seabreeze86]

 Ali1977 I just think it’s been a frustrating winter Ali the vortex has been weak for long periods and we have fallen at the final hurdle time after time 

Scandinavia has had a very cold winter we just haven’t been able to tap into it 

[Ali1977]

 KTtom not discounting CC , with Scandy having an incredibly cold winter I don’t think getting cold would be a problem if we got the HP in the right place - although I guess some will say that’s due to CC. Over the last few years the UKs snowiest periods have often been into March - so you never know. 

[Purga]

Cooling off a bit towards the end but mostly mild or very mild and non-descript. Looking forward to Spring after this abortion of a winter!

[nick sussex]

I’m willing to hold on for a few more days as I’m a sucker for punishment !

The zonal winds have peaked and are set to fall rapidly from now so maybe we might see some better outputs .

Models don’t always like these sudden changes . 

It might sound like straw clutching but we could still see something towards the end of February .

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Clusters 3 and 5 look good for a cold plunge by day 10, clusters 2 and 4 have things too far west, cluster 6 settles on a UK high, cluster 1 can’t lose heights to the south.  

T264+:

Cluster 3 looks good with a nicely placed ridge into Greenland by day 15, cluster 2 has a weak Greenland block that goes a bit too far west, cluster 1 rather has the blocking collapse.

There’s still potential here, and with the SSW to factor into the mix, cluster 1 looks to me unlikely.  But getting anything at all into the reliable just seems problematic…

Edited February 11 by Mike Poole