Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch just need the high lay block first - hopefully the cold would come - this is way FI now and the block sets up days 7/8 - it’ll look very different in reality the further we go into FI - hopefully better

[Sweatyman]

 Lukesluckybunch No. No you don't.

[feb1991blizzard]

Split up to 30mb.

[blizzard81]

Another thing I'm liking across the models today is that potent atlantic storm seemingly hitting a brick wall, then weakening and if anything, starts to break up or retreat, or both. Ukmo and gfs just as examples. 

[Daniel*]

Clearly if we were not looking at a highly disruptive event in stratosphere, it would be fair to call winter over but as GFS 12z shows while the cold misses us mostly it has a radical influence on upper patterns. Predictability what little of it will be tumbling in NWP. We’ve been thrown a lifeline whether we seize it remains to be confirmed. 

[Tim Bland]

@Daniel Winter IS over in 2 weeks …

At least Spring has “potential “ I suppose

Edited February 10 by Tim Bland

[minus10]

Gfs 12z showing nice retrogression of heights from the east to the west/ north west in second half of run...with the scandi/ European trough digging down...

[WYorksWeather]

Not too much of a signal for anything colder. Very end of the GFS 12z offers some hope but really clutching at straws for the moment.

All dependent on the SSW really, which could give us one final shot at something. 

The one positive is that tonight's GFS operational does bring more cold across Europe by day 10, which may slightly mitigate the issue we have at the moment of a lack of cold sources. If we could then get a long-fetch easterly, north-easterly or possibly even south-easterly we'd be in with a chance. But we'd need an adjustment of the coldest 850s several hundred miles west to get anything notable.

The OP is also a cold outlier even by day 10, so even this chart above is to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Just barely enough here to keep some interest going and keep me watching for the next 10 days or so, but if nothing turns up by then I'm done.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm looking interesting 120!low further south!

[Dancerwithwings]

GEFS pert 15 would do just nicely

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wow what a poor ecm!

[Alderc 2.0]

Output not going anywhere interesting for anyone looking for winter to show its teeth late on in the season. Won’t be long looking at the models until we start hunting for the first 20C.

[northwestsnow]

 Lukesluckybunch

We just got to hope we get some dry weather.

 

[KTtom]

 Alderc 2.0 Didnt that happen Jan 29th, well 19.9 rounded up ?

Edited February 10 by KTtom

[Singularity]

12z det runs of GFS, GEM, & UKM are all interesting to some extent or other, albeit not with exciting surface weather directly on offer. Key aspect is the Atlantic trough disrupting sufficiently for blocking highs to hang about N or NE of the UK with surface cooling over time & the chance of getting an import of cold air ‘proper’ from somewhere to the NE.

Then we have the third ECM run in a row elongating the trough to the NE for reasons we can only imagine. One of a great many scenarios in the ensemble - ECM seems to have a thing for picking a particular option several runs in a row regardless. Sometimes it proves right to have done so, sometimes not.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Met Office extended forecast seems to be nudging away from the colder mid February to a milder Atlantic regime,SSW not proving much help at present for cold seekers fingers crossed for some signs of strong northern blocking soon as time is running out.

[Cambrian]

12z GFS op and mean very much in kilter between days 8 and 16 in terms of Northern Hemisphere profile with the separation of the lobes of the PV being orchestrated by northwest European and Alaskan ridges interacting through the pole. 

  

That means there’s arguably reasonable support there for a PV split on the mean too, which is interesting to observe. Both ultimately bring the Scandinavian trough southwest through the UK and Ireland, with a handsome trend in the mean T850s. 

A crisp evolution towards a cold end to February. 

[Gowon]

 Anthony Burden

Those Met updates don't mean jack to me - they're a waste of time

[Daniel*]

Poor run ECM 12z but increasing interest in strat which follows GFS with a secondary significant stratospheric warming coming out of Siberia driving towards the pole. 

[billy]

 Gowon Indeed...better off following some people on here IMO

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

We just got to hope we get some dry weather.

Why say that nw..cos no sign of cold?

Edited February 10 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

All four clusters look blocked, cluster 4 the strongest with a persistent block in Greenland.  Cluster 3 has things a little too far east, cluster 2 the Atlantic low is too progressive, cluster 1 the build of heights too much through the UK.  

T264+:

There does seem a genuine theme in these, that wasn’t there this morning or in yesterday evening’s output, for a continuation of a blocked theme, a block somewhere around Greenland in all 5 clusters at day 15.  Pointless looking in any detail at that, and if it is fallout from the SSW, then the models will make a meal of it before deciding on anything useful in terms of a forecast, but the interest remains, even if the clock is ticking into the red zone…

[Frosty.]

I was almost ready to give up on what little remains of this pathetic winter until I saw the Cfs!… …the early part of the meteorological spring might be interesting too…but should I hold my breath? …if not, roll on the lighter evenings / mornings & strengthening sun..,see, there’s always a bright side!   

 

Edited February 10 by Frosty.

[Dennis]

NOAA rising HP iceland 

[minus10]

Does seem like endlessly chasing the pot of 'cold' at the end of the rainbow...

Gefs 12z still wanting to cool down for the last few days of Feb..850 anoms

...homing in on Europe..

...note how Scandi going into the freezer again..what a winter they have had...not a million miles away distance wise but the difference couldnt be more stark ...

...nw height rises and Scandi/ European trough still being signalled the cause of the modelled cooldown..

...trough position not perhaps completely ideal but hey...would be an improvement on current synoptics...

..north westerly to northerly i would think...

...we really need to see this signal not pushed back any further and if possible moved forward a day or five...encouraging that the ec clusters that Mike analysed also show quite a lot of nw blocking / heights so ...come on...one last push .....to get that cold at the end of this very long rainbow..