Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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Some nice warmth around today i see. Highs of 25/26c quite widely.
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GEM looks good tonight. But apart from that its next please...
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Ive got to agree that the recent spell of heat is like an island in a sea of mediocrity. But least its not been too wet. I was camping recently in Lincolnshire and was talking to someone who works there who was saying its been pretty good there for the last 3 weeks. So the fairly dry conditions have been noticed.
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Least most parts now have 2 days to come which most people would regard as 'summery'. Temps in the low to mid 20s should rid us of the chill thats been evident today and yesterday.
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Given last weeks heat is still quite recent im not too disappointed with the current output. Even the good summers had spells like this. 3 weeks down the line if we havent seen another settled spell then it will be a different story.
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Yes SS. It looks like the op is too willing to bring back the cool breezy northwesterlies, whereas the ECM mean maintains the idea of things hotting up again out at days 8 to 10.
But theres still lots of warmth closer to the present day and temperatures will be at or slightly above the seasonal average on Sunday-Tuesday even after the heat has passed. More like average on Wednesday and Thursday.
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Perhaps a little warmer here today than it was yesterday due to the absence of any onshore breeze. It really does feel very warm and humid outside.
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If we hadnt reached the dizzy heights of 36c today im sure many people would be salivating over the GFS 12z showing 30c in the SE at 240h. And while it is a cooler trend into next week, there is enough to encourage those wanting a return to the summery conditions of present. Both ECM and GEFS means bring a rise in pressure from the south at the end of next week. Plenty to get through once we get there though.
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Agree that stays hot now until Monday but cannot agree that signs are for temps to rise after mid week. All signs jet anomaly models NAO show a return to near normal temps with a flat jet bringing west to sw and sun an showers. Nothing sustained in terms of heat showing.
Near normal temps for a time before a pressure rise from the south, shown on both ECM and GEFS means which would lead to temperatures rising.
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We are truly into mid summer now and what a wonderful time of year it is with daylight almost at its max. The chilly nagging northwesterlies seem a long time ago now. It looks like staying pretty warm here now till next Monday, then a short cooler spell and after that there are signs that pressure and temperatures will be once again on the rise. We have been spoilt in the last 2 Julys and i hope this one is the same. Nothing worse than the light evenings being ruined by horrid autumnal like wind and rain.
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An increasingly pleasant and settled and to tonights ECM 12z
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I always thought that we were capable of something approaching record breaking today. Uppers around 20c dont just deliver bog standard plumes just touching 30c.
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GFS is back showing 30c+ for eastern England with the transition to cooler conditions delayed long enough to produce another hot day
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I won't pretend to be experienced with reading charts. What are the chances of us getting a reload of heat next week possibly setting us up for a July 2006 repeat?
It's wonderful we're getting some real heat again, but would love it to continue past this coming week.
This is what the GEFS 12z mean is showing at the moment. So its likely to remain on the warm side even after the main heat has passed.
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17.8c
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Today has been a very typical "heat wave in development" day, with breezy south-westerlies and temperatures in the low twenties, as the Azores High ridges into Europe. The temperatures are all on the upward trend from now!
Also, I think the models and the forecasts are widely undercooking tomorrow's temperatures. I think we could widely see temperatures in the 22-27C range, for England and Wales anyway.
Yes it occurred to me that today is the start of what should be a cracking week of Summer heat, sunshine and storms. In only a couple of days the SE will be touching 30c. And although the heat does depart on Friday night, the models are indicating that it could be back for a time a couple of days later. Plenty of interest for summer fans.
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Well the ECM 12z mean is outstanding. Following the midweek spell of heat we see winds tilting SE dragging up a second pulse of hot air up from France on Friday, and into Saturday. The 20C isotherm is just off the Kent coast on Saturday which, for the mean output 7 days out is quite something. The mean ends with LP to the NW and further warm/very warm air affecting the UK. Upper temps remaining above 10C for most of England and Wales at day 10.
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The GFS looks to be seriously undercooking the maxes on Tuesday. These sort of uppers have delivered 30c+ in years gone by. Id say instead of the 25/26c that is being shown we will be seeing temps approaching 30c.
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Ive gone for a temp range of 20c-30c and some storms. Sounds ideal to me to have pleasant warmth in the low 20s interspersed with hotter periods culminating in a thundery breakdown, then back to pleasant and warm again.
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Max 34.6c Northolt Wednesday
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Well a couple of days ago the heatwave was a possibility, now its pretty much a certainty that temperatures will soar in the coming week initially peaking on Wednesday, then falling back a touch before rising again towards the weekend back into the low 30s. But this second burst of heat is not nailed on yet.
The 15C isotherm reaching the north of Scotland next Saturday.
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Its hovering around 20c and its almost 8 in the evening. This is what summer is all about! Not the dismal cool drizzy evenings of a week ago.
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Ive been thinking weve had enough prolonged northerlies recently (e.g last August) so its time for a southerly that just keeps reloading with more heat and humidity.
It will be payback for this awful spell
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- Popular Post
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Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A short spell of heat has appeared on the GFS 12z, and was there, to a lesser extent on the 6z too. So perhaps something of interest to come mid week. Generally a warm but changeable/unsettled outlook sums up the coming week with Wednesday looking the best day for dry weather.