[August 2015 CET forecasts]

I know August 2006 didn't do it, but I'm not sure about the more recent Augusts.

 

I would hazard a guess, 2008, 2010, and 2014

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

Looking very good for Thursday of next week with the mean trough moving westwards allowing southerly winds and pretty respectable temperatures over the uk and possibly very warm in the south east:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0

As happy as Larry with that chart.

 

The GFS 12z for next week makes for refreshing viewing. Gone are the unseasonable cool temperatures and showers, and its looking like the low to mid 20s will be achieved for many. The highest temperatures to be found as usual across SE and E England.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

And the whole of next week looks much more like summer on the 6z. A brief cool down midweek before temperatures and humidity rises, which brings the threat of heavy pulses of rain coming up from the south, but also some drier spells too.

 

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

Temperatures still looking good over much of eastern England on Monday. East Anglia looking like the favoured spot with 29c, possibly 30c.

 

[Summer 2015]

I suppose its ok if you live to work

 

Yes, i can see even myself wanting cool summers if i worked every day in an unairconditioned stuffy office and when i wasnt working i slept. But outside of work i like to get out and about as much as possible and the mid 20s and sunny is far more useable than 15c and raining. On Saturday i play cricket which is probably the most weather dependant sport there is. Its no fun stood out in the field in freezing cold winds and squally showers in early May. But on a warm summers afternoon there is nothing i would prefer doing than making the best use of the valuable summer days, followed by a nice pint in the evening sunshine.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

Once again a battle going on between the Azores high trying to push the low northwards and high pressure over greenland wanting to stay put. I really cant see the heights to the north being dislodged any time soon but we still get this from the ECM. Warm southwesterlies and fairly dry for most away from the far NW.

 

Monday looking very nice for SE England with mid to high 20s bring a brief taste of proper Summer

 

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

Low pressure is really having a hard time pulling away to the NW on the latest gfs, and its the ever present heights around Greenland that are scuppering our chances of a more widespread pressure rise. A NW/SE split looks likely, warm in the SE, but unfortunately more misery for those in the NW.

[How bad is your snow addiction ?]

Its alright watching it snow, its when it settles then it becomes a ballache. Im more addicted to watching it melt. Nowt better than watching mild winds get to work on a lawn full of mucky slush and compacted ice thats no good to anyone.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

Unfortunately the model output does not paint a pretty picture both ecm and gfs  show a big low moving towards the Uk during the weekend after that in cloud cuukoo land some very unsettled charts.....      

 

Apart from the far north and west Sunday is fine and warm on the GFS. So for most of the UK, the presence of the low pressure is meaningless

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

The latest GEFS mean is the strongest indication yet of high pressure setting up in a favourable position for warm and settled conditions to develop heading into August.

 

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

UKMO has ditched its unsettled outlook of yesterday and now has joined the rest of the models. At t+144 it looks like its gearing up for a warm southerly with low pressure to the west not really going anywhere fast.

 

[Summer 2015]

Isnt it better to feel cool but comfortable but still warm enough to sit outside a pub though, rather than cloudy humid sticky conditions, I just don't see what they achieve either.

 

Doubt youd see many people say outside a pub today.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

An end to this extremely unseasonable cool weather is in sight. Saturday should see temperatures back up into the low 20s over much of England but more cloud and rain will keep temperatures pegged back further north. Friday too is looking a decent day too away from the NW.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

UKMO on its own tonight in not bringing in the Azores ridge and a subsequent rise in temperature.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

Not as warm as the GFS 12z but the GEM this evening also lending support

 

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.]

I like how high pressure seems to force its way through on the latest GFS 12z later on in the week. Almost like its been shut out for far too long so 'its my turn now!'.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

As I mentioned ...north north west winds midweek...suppressed temps.....models showing a high of 20 Saturday....at the height of Summer....Some of us mentioned this but were shot down ....ECM gfs jma all suggest supressed temps way into Aug...no heat or so called plumes predicted

 

Way too early to suggest suppressed temperatures well into August. Given the GFS 12z once again throws in a nice weekend. 22c on Saturday, 24c on Sunday. Southerly winds pushing up heat from the south on Monday. Think it begins with a 'P' but not allowed to mention it on here lol.

 

[July 2015 CET forecasts]

Pretty normal July then and the warmest month of the year so far, been a humid month too.

 

First of all you would expect July to be the warmest month out of the first 7 months. The last time June was warmer than July was 1970. And theres still more of this cool rubbish to go so it will end up below average.

[July 2015 CET forecasts]

So a pretty rubbish month tbh after such a promising start. Will go down as nothing special, totally masking the impressive heat right at the start.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

No such concerns regarding the 18z. Temps up into the low to mid 20s on Sunday and as high as 27c on Monday. Quite a few 12z ensemble members went for a big warm up at the weekend too.

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

At least with this sort of mean chart it raises the chances of higher temperatures returning to the UK, more especially to the SE which should also enjoy the best of any dry weather. Same old story for the NW however.

 

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

 I'm afraid I've no idea where you get this mini plume from with a raging depression in the offing.

 

I was going to say its the smallest of mini plumes but the GEFS mean still shows warmer air moving northwards before it gets swept away eastwards. The 10C isotherm just about making it into southern England

 

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

GEFS ensemble mean supports a mini plume next Sunday

 

[Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->]

Well if no one else is going to mention it then i will. GFS 12z has a nice window of settled weather Fri-Sun (nicely coinciding with the weekend) Temps up to 23c in the SE on Saturday.

 

[Summer 2015]

Its been abysmal for northern England and Scotland lately and the outlook for these parts is truly dire this week. I cant believe Glasgow has gone 15 days without even reaching 20c. The north and west does well with warm SE winds off the continent and weve had very little of that so far this summer.