Milhouse
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Posts posted by Milhouse
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I want September and October to feature quite a lot of high pressure and sunshine to take advantage of the available warmth before it fizzles out. There would also be a few long-drawn southerlies to give some autumn thunderstorms and brief bursts of summer heat. Then in November the Atlantic can fire up, giving some very mild and stormy days.
That would be the perfect autumn - nice and warm.
My appetite for a good raging SW gale and storms increases as we get to November too. Once the trees have lost their leaves, one of my favourite aspects of winter (of which there arent that many) is a nice mildish brisk wind greeting me in the morning. Really does feel invigorating without being too cold that it freezes me.
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The sun in my eyes when im sat at my desk in the morning is a sure sign of the shortening days. Come winter, It will be very welcome after walking to work in the cold and the wind.
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Persistent winds from a westerly direction have characterised this summer but the general theme has been for winds to veer more SW as the summer has gone on. Therefore the lack of anything coming from the east has mean its been a decent summer in these parts compared to the rest of the country. There have been lots of days of dry conditions with a good deal of sunshine, however much of June was disappointingly cool and windy. July was rather nice with the exception of the final week and much of August has been decent too with the odd dull and wet day here and there. Overall, considering what id expect from my location its been very average with a bit of everything.
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Summer is nearly dead and buried, Long live autumn, can see another warm spell at some point though between now and end of Sept.
Yes it looks like thats almost it for another year. Some warmish days to come until the turn of the month than a fresher period. But as you say i wouldnt be suprised to see some warmth return later in the month given that September is only a litlle cooler than June. Its mid october that the first chilly days start to feature and the thick coat makes an appearance.
Ive been quite happy with this summer round here. The stats for the country as a whole will paint a slightly below par picture but weve been in one of the more favoured areas.
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Next week would be dire if it were mid summer but as its the start of Autumn i care a lot less. Looks like the pleasant warmth will conveniently last till the absolute end of Summer before temperatures fall back.
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The 6z ensemble mean brings the heat quite close to the UK over the weekend. Unfortunately it looks like being associated with low pressure.
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So it looks like all 3 summer months will come in slightly below average, so overall a below par summer but its been a reasonable one for quite a good portion of the UK, including here
I suspect the NW station will have recorded a max in the low 20s today whereas hop across the pennines and we were seeing 26c. But there is no station there.
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Azores high...the violin of Summer that teases prompts..,but naturally fails to hit the Uk and bring settled weather for more than a day overall...Its been a torment, torture, for those looking at a prolonged summer with lovely temps
Its been a reasonable summer over here so it just shows you dont need high pressure overhead to deliver summery conditions to parts of the UK. But to get nationwide settled weather we do need that elusive high positioned on top of the UK. And not for the first time in recent years, the ECM has high pressure becoming dominant on the last day of summer
But at day 10 its subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Some very warm and humid air being dragged northwards next week, but it wont necessarily translate into high temperatures by day, but night time minima would be held in the high teens id imagine under all the cloud.
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It looks like Summer is putting in one last big effort to bring the UK some heat and storms. For eastern parts it looks very warm, even hot in places tomorrow and Sunday is looking fine too with the rain holding out to the SW before pushing back north later on. Very muggy tomorrow night with temperatures holding up in the mid to high teens.
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With Summer almost drawing to a close i think its fairly certain that i can sum this summer up as a very average Summer in my neck of the woods. Average on all 3 aspects with some very warm spells mized in with some cooler wetter ones. No prolonged warmth like 2013 or prolonged wetness like 2012. So ive been quite happy with this summer, despite it somewhat lacking in very warm temperatures. Looks a nice weekend though in the east.
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What an absolute stinker of a day. Rain from the east is always horrible as it just sticks around for hours. I do hope the nice start to the month for many parts isnt runied by a poor second half.
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With some mild nights coming up i cant see it tbh.
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The GFS 12z has winds once again turning SW next week after an unsettled weekend. Some very warm, moist and humid air being scooped up and pushed northwards.
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It looks like eastern parts wont escape the rain tomorrow, contrary to earlier predictions. Looks a pretty drab day here with SW England best placed for any dry and bright weather. From Wednesday onwards its back to a traditional NW/SE split and becoming rather warm again in the SE.
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It does look like August will continue the rairly reasonable conditions that we have experienced so far. Nothing really to spark any excitement but increasingly warm winds from the SW then S should ensure a summery feeling week. Low pressure does look like coming closer next weekend but winds likely to remain from a fairly warm direction.
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The big issue for eastern coastal parts early next week looks to be the proximity to the band of rain thats going to be out in the North Sea. The 12z has it sat about 300 miles offshore for around 48hrs. Cool and wet for those stuck under it but we look to be just about escaping it.
Becoming more unsettled from the NW from midweek but increasingly warm and dry further SE.
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For your area but not mine, I have 4 dry days coming up, Sat-Tue, but then back to normal from wednesday with washout lows, living here sucks if you don't like rain, great if you like it
I hope i havent spoken too soon. That rainband over the north sea looks too close for comfort early next week.
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Looking good for my birthday on the 22nd - partly cloudy and 23C forecast. Hopefully the forecast will remain consistent until then.
August 2015 here has been like 2012 and 2009 - just very average, but average is pleasant.
I am not disappointed that there are no heatwaves showing up on the models, and i am resigned to the fact that we have probably seen the last of the 30c days this Summer. Im just happy that theres a lot of dry weather on offer to really make use of the decreasing daylight hours. And it looks reasonably warm too.
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'It could be a lot worse' is the way i'd sum up the models today. Temperatures will be around or just below average over the weekend then after that things are looking up. Its still unclear how close unsettled conditions will come to the NW but the further east you go it will be once again a case of warm-very warm conditions with a lot of dry weather around. Temperatures hotting up on the GFS
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Looks like August will continue the dry and fairly warm theme after a very unsettled day tomorow. It really is turning out a great month over here, but im prepared for lower temperatures next week with the forecast easterlies but its western parts turn to get some nice weather for once.
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The GFS is showing a really pleasant 5-7 days beginning with Saturday. Isolated showers cant be ruled out but there should be a lot of dry weather around. There really cant be any complaints about it being too warm and humid either. Pleasant temps of 19-24c really arent too warm.
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The ECM mean supports high pressure building around the middle of next week and the low pulling back away to the NW, which has been the general theme of this month so far.
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I was just thinking the other day that there has been almost a total lack of North sea haar/low cloud this Summer. Really unusual to get to this stage without at least a few days occurring. Shows how there has been an absence of anything from the east, not only this summer but this year so far (except for during Aprils anticyclonic spells)
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Today is what summer is all about. The warmth and humidity of the day culminating in a torrential downpour around 5ish and that lovely aroma of the first rains after a longish dry spell. Then back to a lovely warm evening.
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But at day 10 its subject to a high degree of uncertainty. 
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It does look very poor tbh with pesky lows stuck in the North Sea. Not sure theres going to be much sunshine. The sooner the high topples over us the better.