Milhouse

The 18z is building up to be a stunning run. Widely 30c is breached on Thursday with 850s of at least 15c covering the whole of England. Can it build further into Friday?

And the good thing is 20c has been so hard to achieve this year so far but many places are set to get at least 20c for the forseeable future. All warmth from now on.

I want the GFS to throw up a run similar to the ECM or GEM ops with 20c 850s touching the UK. Just to see what sort of temperatures it would produce. Ive never seen widespread 30c+ temps for the UK on the GFS before.

To end the run it stays very warm with signs of a rebuild of high pressure from the SW

Next Thursday is the day that would give the highest temperatures if the ECM were to verify. Just to compare to the 3rd August 1990 that saw 37c, that was from 850s of only 16/17c. The August 2003 heatwave often saw the 20c isotherm into the far south.

As expected, the heat is building on the ECM so far

The GEM has been throwing in some extreme heat of late and the 12z tonight is no exception. I did think it was out on a limb with its prediction but its support is growing. Im a bit puzzled how NW France can get into the mid 30s, but it cant translate into anything as special for the UK. Not to be taken seriously at this stage but just wondered.

In a weeks time, temps in the low teens will be a distant memory. On the subject of June, i have found it largely pleasant too, but without much interest, and i really have been craving the warm, soft feel to the air that you get on days like today. There have been much worse Junes.

It shows how extreme the heat is coming up from the south on the GFS when cooler air starts to filter in from the east. Not a direction you associate with cooler air in summer. By cooler i still mean uppers 10-15c so remaining very warm. Temps of 30c+ come tantalisingly close but we dont get over 30c in the UK on this run. But as a general rule, i always think with upper temps of 15c we stand a good chance of breaching the 30c mark, and the 12z has 15c uppers as far north as Lancashire. The GFS has definately started to back the ECM in showing the first real summer heat of the season.

The 18z is worth a look just for the extreme heat that's set to come very close to the Uk at the end of the high res part of the run, sadly can't post charts. Upper temps of 25c, daytime maxes into the low 40s and mins in the low to mid 20s over parts of France. Back home, the heat does make its way into southern England. But if you want summer to arrive for us you only have to wait till Tuesday for the pleasant conditions to return. But the potential for a very interesting spell of summer heat is there in the extended outlook and sure that's where many people's attention is focussed on.

One thing that sets this Summer apart from 2007, 2012 is the mention of the dreaded word 'flooding' that has no place in any summer forecast. Now that certainly would have the doom mongers out in force.

Its time for this June to be rescued from the mediocrity and tedium it currently finds itself in. We might just get an average month courtesy of a more summery final week.

The 6z might bring the Atlantic in briefly to give a very unsettled few days but by the 1st July we already have high pressure building back across the south. With a mean like this there is plenty to be upbeat about as we enter July. It shows us cutting off the NW flow and entering a much more favourable position for high pressure to build across the UK delivering some very warm conditions. The mid 20s are getting easier to achieve now that we are approaching July.

So odd looking at that 3rd one down when you realize its from the 1st October 2011. I suspect the temperatures would look higher for Cornwall on days during the July 2013 spell and last Julys warm spell too. Winds from the E/NE bring the highest temperatures down there.

Liking the look of the models tonight. Finally a taste of proper summer. i.e warm right through the day, pleasant evenings and mildish nights.

What i like about the ECM 12z is that the 5c 850 hps line stays over the north of Scotland throughout, and we get 10c upper temps skirting the south. So it would not only be warm by day, but by night too which is not something weve seen recently. Finally the endless northwesterly and the associated chill is coming to an end. Instead of chilly winds we will have more days like this afternoon which has felt very pleasant in the increased humidity.

Even the rain on Friday is debatable. For instance the UKMO would give most areas a dry day on Friday and cap off a pretty decent week given what has been previously shown.

Well it was one step forward yesterday in the models but the progress to a more interesting summer pattern seems to have stalled judging by tonight runs. But the signs of winds turning more westerly late next week are still there which would cut off the persistent cool flow.

Are we nearing the end of the persistent northwesterlies that have plagued the uk for the last couple of months. Looking at the models tonight it does look like it.

Big changes from the ECM too, cutting short the northerly (it doesnt really feature on this run at all). In its place are much more interesting summer charts. We could be about to look south for our weather for the first time in ages. Quite a way from being fully settled but theres quite a bit of warmth heading our way at t+168. But its early days and one run doesnt make a pattern change so its a trend that i will be looking for tomorrow too.

The GEFS mean in a weeks time not looking particularly unsettled and hinting at a pressure rise from the south. It goes on to suggest a NW/SE split for the remainder of next week with quite warm conditions for the SE.

The GFS 12z has the briefest of northerly outbreaks next Monday before high pressure builds back in. Temps are in the low 20s on Sunday, falling back into the teens on Monday before recovering into the low 20s again by Tuesday. And, as SS has alluded to, the UKMO isnt too shabby either, keeping most parts dry and quite pleasant over the weekend. Good stuff from the 12z models so far.

So the ECM mean is out and its supporting a northerly for a time before pressure building from the SW later on, which is what the 0z showed this morning.

Which is precisely why the means are a better place to look. At day 10 looking for specific details is pointless. Here is the gefs12z mean at day 10.

Its truly dire but what is also disappointing is when the ECM 12z draws more focus than the 0z which happened to show a settled end with high pressure and warmth at 240h. As ever, the ensemble mean will give the overall picture.