Milhouse

What can change this horrible pattern were stuck in at the moment. It seems like theres a huge area of cool air thats just seeping down into the north Atlantic and affecting us, and looking at past years it seems the cool air is more extensive than it should be at this time of year. The Azores high has been disinterested all summer, and the persistence of cool air from the NW has been such a big feature of this whole year so far, hence how uninteresting it has been, with hardly anything to speak of whatsoever. An incredibly horrible and bland year so far.

Im very happy that i managed to book a holiday when the weather was at its best at the start of the month. There have been some nice days since then but this month is fast descending into a borefest after such a promising start. Very disappointing. Roll on Summer 2016.

And that still leaves a month of summer to go does it not?

And its been cool air overhead as well, which has translated into zero sunshine. Ive had more sunshine here from humid southwesterlies before.

I really pity those who have chosen next week to go in holiday in miserable old Blightly. Its set to be the worst week of the summer so far and a throwback to the dreadful summers of 2007 and 2012. But things are looking up for the turn of the month.

August rescued quite a few summers during the 90s and early 00s. Its about time it did it again!

Looks like we need a warm and settled August to balance things out this summer. Its a shame we have to rely on August to rescue the summer as its my least favourite summer month. But ill take warmth whenever so i really do hope it happens.

Im hoping for a few modifications to the prospects for the end of the next week because at the moment its looking pretty awful. Having endured an almost raw piercing wind early on today who can like that stuff. Hopefully the rather weak areas of high pressure flirting with the UK can strengthen somewhat as we nearer the time.

I was up near Durham today and it was almost raw to start the day with a strong and gusty wind. Even when the sun did come out it did very little to help the temperature. However back home i find out we have hit a reasonable 21c and even now, at gone 8pm it feels warmer than id did at any time up there. What a difference being at sea level and 100 miles further south makes.

I would agree, and fortunately i seem to be in the part of the country thats had a respectable summer so far. This July is a long way from the Julys of 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2012 where every day seemed to come with the chance of showers or longer spells of rain breaking out.

This summer has been okayish around these parts. I would give June 6/10 and July a 7 up to now. Thankfully no monsoon rains like many recent summers.

As it stands the only meaningful rain in the next 5/6 days is set to cross the country on Thursday night. So even though temperatures will only be around average it is set to be an accepteble spell of summerlike weather. Average at this year means 19-23c so plenty warm enough not to need a coat.

The ECM mean is going for very warm southwesterlies for a time giving a NW/SE split. Rather than a full on pressure rise.

1995 also saw 30c achieved on the last day of June in the first real hot spell of the summer, just like this year.

Its intersting to compare the upcoming warmth potential with a brief spell of heat almost 20 years ago to the day during the memorable summer of 1995.

There was a big difference here between August 2013 and August 2014. 2013 as i remember was consistently warm without being anything spectacular. Humberside Airport recorded a mean max of 22.6c which was very reasonable. However last year was a write off as you say, after a decent start. I would gladly take another August 2013 again.

Yes Mushy, we do seem to have come out of that spell of cool northwesterlies during May and June when low pressure always wanted to dive into central europe. Now, despite worrying heights over greenland, we do seem to be in a better position for pressure to build favourably bringing winds from a warmer direction.

The models keep throwing up very nice runs from time to time, but still too infrequently to definately call another summery spell round the corner. What is for sure is after the coming weekend we are likely to enter a spell of warm moist southwesterlies. How much north high pressure builds is still far from certain.

The ECM mean is supportive of a pressure rise from the SW beginning around day 6, not to the extent that the OP shows but it shows winds coming from a warm SW direction nevertheless.

Today wasnt meant to be anything special but apart from 30 mins rain late morning its been fine and warm at 22c. You can still get decent enough days from average looking charts.

Well this evenings ECM looks increasingly settled and warm from day 7 onwards. No doubt at the absolute warm end of the ensembles though but nice to see nevertheless.

Anything that extends the summer season into Autumn is welcome by me, whether its abundant sunshine or above average warmth. Cant be doing with the onset of grim cold and wet conditions several months before winter starts properly.

Well although the outlook is best described as mixed, there doesnt look to be anything overly cool this coming week. Temperatures will remain around average for the most part, but there is still the sign for a mini plume to send temps into the mid, possibly high 20s for a time.

And the ECM 12z is going the same way too. High pressure initially over the UK on Wednesday, followed by low pressure to the west sending some heat northwards for Thursday.

The GFS has a big blob of rain and very suppressed temps for northern England next Thursday, and infact it does look dire for our part of the world. But as its too early to tell where any rain would be, expect the temperatures to be different to whats being shown. The general idea is for a warm up of sorts from midweek.