Milhouse
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Everything posted by Milhouse
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Right on the coast at Scarborough it was a lovely day despite temps maxing out about 20c The strong sun and light winds making it feel very pleasant. But I will echo what has already been said that soon as the sun goes behind the buildings it does get a tad chilly. Add 4/5c onto the daytime high and the warmth sticks round for longer into the evening. More time to remain in shorts and tshirt.
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That is very true. Joggers/shorts and a tshirt is sufficient at the moment, regardless of if its 6.30am or 4.30 pm.
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I'm loving biking to and from work in this sort of weather. Getting that lovely fresh, but not too cold air in my lungs. I can set off at 6.30am in a t-shirt which is lovely. Much better than biking into a cold raw wind that is so harsh on your skin. My skin tone is much nicer in summer too due to the much softer air. I dont react well to raw freezing cold winds.
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And the warmth stays with us too -
I picked up on the first signs of a pressure rise next week quite a while ago. We were looking at a period of unsettled conditions with low pressure hanging around for 4/5 days. But now we have thundery downpours for Friday and Saturday. These fizzling out on Sunday and Monday sees two areas of high pressure joining forces perfectly over the UK. Next week on the GFS12z looks every bit as warm and summery as last July.
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That would make most of the British public insane in your opinion. Ever wondered why Greenland has never taken off as a tourist destination
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I set off biking to work at 6.30 am. Hopefully i can do that in the daylight for a while yet before i have to put on the lights, or give it up alltogether for the winter. Really dont want to have to do that.
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Its got more chance of coming off than the FI GFS 'very cool and very wet' charts we've seen posted umpteen times this summer. Wait till January and if uppers of -20c are coming from the east then you can post the charts showing it.
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GEM has upper temperatures of 20c scraping the east coast on Saturday.
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The heat will really get going properly from Wednesday onwards. Who said we have seen the best of the summer?
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And not only that, the ECM brings back the very warm temperatures for the following week after a very brief unsettled couple of days. Probably the best ECM from start to finish since last July.
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The GEFS 12z mean really does squeeze the weekends unsettled spell from both ends. First it has the heat lasting longer with the 15c isotherm just off the SE coast on Saturday. Secondly it has pressure quickly rising with the 1020mb pressure line into the SW by the following Tuesday.
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014
Milhouse replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well i have a job in an unairconditioned office. But i also have a life and i dont let my job rule it. I am off on Thursday though so a trip to the coast sounds ideal. -
High pressure already ridging into the SE by next monday and extending northwards during the rest of the low-res part of the GFS. Summer-like weather set to continue beyond next weekend if that is true.
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I agree, it doesnt need ramping up by the press, but im sure it will be. Its nothing unusual, but neither is a 3/4 day cold and snowy spell in winter but it would still get people excited. Im looking forwards to a good spell of very warm/hot conditions with warm pleasant evenings and strong sun. We've not had anything approaching mid 20s here yet this year.
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The hot spell has also been extended 12hrs by the UKMO 12z over this mornings 0z
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Encouraging to see the hot spell being extended to Friday by the GFS. 30c looking ever more likely.
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And its not only that, but its the conversations this week at work with people actually believing were in for a record breaking hot spell. Makes my blood boil how people actually believe that nonsense.
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By day 10 the GEFS 6z mean has pressure on the rise. Further support for more settled conditions to push up from the south after the weekends unsettled spell. Gone is the low pressure over Europe that will most often give less than favourable conditions for the UK as it inhibits the ability for the Azores high to build in.
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The ECM mean at day 10 has a lot of promise for a second plume event. Pressure lowest around Iceland, not making advances towards the UK. Pressure generally higher over Scandinavia and central Europe. Just what is required for a second hot spell, or at least a settled spell across the southern half of the UK.
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Its good when that happens. But sadly the same cant be said for us over here. That front stuck around all day here on Thursday. But i'm pleased for those westerners though who had a pretty rotten time of it from 2007-2012 whilst over here we did get at least something summery.
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I have no problem with the kind of heat and humidity we get in this country as i just dont get the unpleasant feeling that some get with this sort of weather. Id much rather have this than the cold drizzly damp stuff we get in winter. Im looking forward to biking to work next week in some nice temperatures, as opposed to the cold, the wind and the dark
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Once again, ending above average is more likely than below average.
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Yes, its a fine looking run from the ECM, and the mean too indicates the heat will hang on in eastern areas out to next Saturday. Finally, after a summer of decent but unspectacular warmth, we have some proper heat to look forward to.
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It looks like the GFS 12z sends the main pulse of heat too far east to affect the UK. But given this mornings offerings, a spell of heat cant be ruled out yet. Despite not reaching the upper 20s the GFS still has a decent very warm and humid spell lasting much of next week. It wont be completely dry however with rain likely to affect northern Britain at first and then southern parts later on in the week. Still very acceptable high summer conditions.
