Milhouse

The models have got a look about them very typical of recent Augusts. Neither here nor there. Not especially dry or especially wet. Low pressure will be up around Iceland for much of the upcoming week which will be feeding warm air up from the south but also sending some fronts across the country, especially later on.

'Long dry periods' rather than 'dry' is the best way to describe next week looking at this evenings models. The ECM is the most unsettled of the big 3 but the UKMO does offer some support to the GFS in raising temperatures towards the high 20s.

We may not have had a long lasting hot and sunny spell. But the sign of a good summer is that we are just coming out of a fine spell and theres another decent week just round the corner after an unsettled few days. Sunday looking drier and still warm for much of England and Wales.

The push of heat from the south showing up well on the UKMO

Looking quite likely now that next week will follow the trend of the summer so far. Temperatures on the up and drying out once again will please those seaside resorts and attractions

What a turnaround weve seen over the past few days, but given the way things have been going im not really suprised weve seen yet another upgrade of the warmth and dry weather. It wasnt too long ago we were seeing cool air spilling down from the north. Now its another spell of very warm and dry weather thats just around the corner.

Matt Hugo has the first week, maybe more of August as unsettled. In that case it will be warm and dry then

The signs for high pressure to push up from the south is still there, and given recent trends to upgrade high pressure, i wouldnt be surprised if it is reinforced even further. Around midweek theres decent agreement on the 6z ENS mean to bring in something warmer and drier.

There have been countless decent days here this summer. 2013/14 will go down as one of those groups of decent summers that happen from time to time.

With an ECM mean like this, there is still all to play for. At this stage it looks like NW/SE split will emerge through next week.

Perhaps the last 2 charts would be more like average temperatures but still 22/23c i'd have thought. But looking at this from the ENS mean at day 10 the outlook could be a lot worse

The tendency for people to write days/weeks/months off is not helped by the media. I was listening to one newsreaser on Lincs FM who described today as starting off good, turning miserable. What utter tosh. Lincolnshire saw 24c today so what she had seen to suggest it was going to be miserable i do not know. On here too i think people look at the charts, see that theres not a big high over the top of us and think washout/write off etc. It shows a lack of understanding if you ask me so i suggest said people should study the individual charts a bit closer.

An increasing trend in recent ECM runs is to shift low pressure westwards through the weekend and on into next week. This, in addition to the high over Scandinavia remaining very robust can only keep the UK in a prime position for another plume. A few tweaks needed. So far this summer the models have been keen to upgrade settled spells so this could be another. The ECM, although bringing more unsettled conditions than what weve been used to, keeps the SE of England warm/very warm throughout. The warmth over the continent always close enough to the UK to keep temperatures on the warm side.

This is what the GFS 0z had for us today and the second chart is what it showed back on the 16th.

You may regret that decision. Anyone who has a bit of knowledge about the weather knows that you can not predict what its going to be like in 12 days time.

That is late July for you. It never really feels cool at this time of year as we are now at the warmest time of year.

Definately all the hallmarks off a NW/SE split starting from today. Over here its 23c and sunny intervals. Every bit as warm as it was last week here.

Out as far as next Saturday the GFS 6z continues to show temperatures remaining very warm for the Midlands and SE England. Throughout much of the upcoming week there will be a lot of dry and fine weather around but almost everyone will catch a shower at some point i feel. But generally its looking like another decent week for most. Thereafter the 6z shows some proper unsettled conditions developing for a time. But as FI shows, no one can rule out a hot spell during August

Depends on what average you look at. The 81-10 average is 16.7c. Last year 1.6 above average. This year not quite so much.

Staying very warm and humid this week over the Midlands and the south and east of England. But for western parts and indeed Scotland there could be up to a 10c drop in temperatures as a northwesterly develops. However further east we will be still under the influence of the heat on the continent. So while Scotland will see a proper breakdown, the same cant be said for all parts.

Cooler weather on the way but observing the 12z it still has temps in the low to mid 20s. That would still beat the highest temperature during the whole of July 2007. And for my particular location we've had 20/21c all week and that looks like continuing so no cool down here. And yes the weather does balance its self out at some point. But wheres the proof that right now will mark the transition from hot and settled to cool and unsettled thus meaning the end of summer. An unsettled spell at the turn of the month does not indicate summer over. Who saw September 2006 coming after a much cooler August?

With the GFS 12z keeping temperatures average or above for the remainder of the month i wonder whether this current figure can be maintained. I sure has been an astonishing run of above average months since December. I did fear it would all come to an end at the end of Spring but the pattern continues. July really can make or break a summer so for it to finish roughly 1c above average is quite an achievement.

More widespread hot temperatures today with widespread 28/29c. Even Loftus on the North sea Coast seeing 26c after being plagued by low cloud all week. The feel of the heat and humidity earlier on was quite something

Looks like a cooler wetter start to August is gathering support. Thereafter there are signs from the ENS mean of high pressure having more of an influence as we move into the 2nd week of August.

Spring can be a lovely season with the lenghening days, being able to get outside a lot more and the smells and sights of nature. Theres a month long spell usually coinciding with May when the vegetation is so lush and fragrant. Its a really lovely time of year.