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Milhouse

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Everything posted by Milhouse

  1. If i hear it again about snow at the weekend from the media, especially local radio im gonna scream. Dont know if its a post Dec 2010 thing but the hype surrounding snow is much bigger than it used to be. The models suggest some wintry showers for NW facing coasts but thats it.
  2. Looking wild on the latest ECM. Thats a very deep low too. 950mb
  3. Models look like delivering some pretty bog standard stuff for the time of year. As far a cold is concerned, a couple of feeble northwesterlies is your lot.
  4. For my location we will have gained 3 minutes of daylight on an evening in a months time. But we will have lost 25 minutes in the morning. But for me the light gained at the end of the day is more significant.
  5. For a year with so many above average months it would be a shame to miss out on the record. One last push 2014, your nearly there!
  6. My mistake. I was looking at the GFS parallel run. Temps are 3/4c higher
  7. Next Saturday looking mild on the gfs 12z but fog may linger as a result of light winds. The 10c isotherm briefly making an appearance. But before then a much drier and quieter week to come but with winds coming from an easterly direction it will stay disappointingly dull for many. Temps around average but heading up towards next weekend.
  8. Im looking forward to the end of the month then we will know what December has to exceed in order to give the warmest year on record. Given the way November is progressing, the required December CET will be very achievable.
  9. Mild and fairly wet looks the theme now for the next 10 days. The CET already above average is set to rise further, at a time when on average it would decrease through the month. As the past few days have shown, those looking for cold really need to wait till it gets to 7 days out before getting too excited. It is only November however so lots of time for a more favourable pattern to evolve for cold.
  10. The real cold air is still over 1000 miles away to the north throughout on the ECM and GFS. Theres nothing to say it has our name on it. Its like people getting their hopes up for a heatwave in Summer because 20c hpa temps have moved into Gibraltar. The forecast on the beeb last night highlighted it would be a fairly mild week, hence i see no problem in agreeing with them.
  11. Roughly another 35-40mins of afternoon daylight to be chopped off before the earliest sunset. The 14th December or thereabouts is the big date in my calendar.
  12. Back on topic. Looking as far as 384h on the GEFS mean, i dont see any sign of a cold snap capable of bringing much in the way of wintry stuff.
  13. Both ECM and GEFS ensemble means pointing towards a continuation of average November conditions with temps around 8-12c. We get it every year with people saying the cold is just around the corner. All throughout winter 2013-14 we got all the speculation but it never arrived. This just says average to me
  14. Just had a look outside and theres some shoots appearing for next year already 3/4 inches high. Now they are always the earliest to appear but never known they be this high so early.
  15. Yes, temps turning cooler into next week looks likely. Back down to roughly 8-13c going by the GFS 12z. Thats after another short mild spell Thursday-Saturday.
  16. Its a nuisance in November. What is one supposed to do in 6 hours of darkness apart from watch tv and eat? But as others have said, it does seem appropriate during the festive season to have the sun setting early showing off peoples christmas lights and trees in the front room. Then when Christmas is out of the way the nights are drawing out again. Therefore Christmas acts as a welcome distraction.
  17. Id much rather have the evenings getting lighter sooner that the mornings, rather than the other way round. Sunset time is more important to me and a greater indicator of the turning of the corner towards longer daylight hours. So the sooner it happens the better.
  18. The 1st, 2nd and 3rd warmest years on record all occurring in the space of the past 9 years. Thats quite something.
  19. As has been the case so many times this year - trending well above average in the reliable timeframe, returning to average as confidence drops.
  20. When it gets dark at a time that becomes a nuisance, and prevents people from doing things they would like to do, then i would call it too early. personally i much prefer to cycle home from work in the light, since i go through the countryside, and i would like to get home and look out of the window to at least see the garden for a while before darkness sets in. Come December it feels appropriate for the sun to set at 4pm. Its the decent of darkness in late October that takes a while to acclimatise to.
  21. We may see a northwesterly. Emphasis being on 'may'. On the GEFS mean it doesnt arrive at all. While the ECM 12z has a cooler flow for the last 3 frames and the GEM has things turning cooler right at the end at T+240h. Above average in the reliable, returning to average later.
  22. We can only go on GFS predictions so far and a look in the October CET topic will show some daily records are under threat going by the 6z.
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