Milhouse

Time to get out on my bike to work and back. Still a morning chill to contend with but cycling back home should be a pleasure. The outdoors season is about to begin!!

The GEFS and ECM means are quite similar at day 10.

The ECM mean at day 10 keeps high pressure strong to the east and still influential over the UK.

And the warmth continues into the following week thanks to high pressure intensifying over the near continent and keeping the Atlantic at bay.

The GFS 12z is shaping up very nicely for the end of next week and into the weekend. Temperature wise it will take something exceptional to get the mid 20s at this time of year but id imagine many places would break 20s given the charts below. Spot the difference here for Friday and Saturday.

The 6z GEFS mean is firming up on the idea of quite a prolonged settled period. High pressure to the west of the UK initially will only very slowly transfer over to the east of the UK. At the moment its too early to say if this will result in the first very warm waft of air coming from the south. That is because several ensemble members have a cooler easterly component developing which would restrict temperatures. But we are on the brink of the first proper pleasant settled spell of the Spring.

You know when the 5c 850hpa line pays us a visit under high pressure its going to lead to very pleasant conditions. In any prolonged sunny spells id say high teens likely next week. Spring looks like its sprung judging by the ECM.

Just as you say that the GFS 12z lowers temps over Easter but the 12z from the UKMO is another very good run. So theres no reason why the GFS wont show higher temps again later/tomorrow.

Yes is does look good Frosty. The high has shifted a little more over the UK recently meaning there will be less of a cold drift around the top of the high and onto eastern coasts. However notorious cold spots like the NE cost of Kent will not fair too well i imagine. But for the majority of is it is set fair and pleasant.

Funnily enough easterly spells such as that one at the end of May 2012 have actually brought some of my more memorable summer moments in recent years. Temperature wise we only just scraped 20c but it was the pure blue skies that really stood out. Late May 2009 also stands out. But that also collapsed into a much cooler unseasonal start to June.

It looks as if the cold plunge of air has been watered down a bit for the weekend so on both Friday and Saturday temperatures remain in double figures, as shown on the GFS. Warmest temps likely over northern and western areas with mid teens possible in favoured sheltered spots.

August 2013 was quite decent here, a slightly cooler version of July here with plenty of dry and warm conditions. But as its just a smidgen cooler than July on average it really should have been the stand out month in recent summers but that hasnt been the case. But in my opinion id take a lovely July over a lovely August any day.

Looking good for the SW on those mean charts. Light winds, upper temps above zero translating into some pleasant springlike conditions. Cooler in the east but still looking mostly settled.

At the moment we are looking at high pressure more likely to be sat to the west of the UK than the east. In such a situation its a very fine line between whether we get fine and warm or unsettled and cool. You can get a warm airmass coming round the top of the high, but you can also get cooler air coming into the mix too. Obviously the further east the high is the warmer it will be. ECM still supporting the cooler outcome, but still with milder air circulating round the high at times.

GFS just needs some support then id be more confident.

UKMO also has a settled Saturday and Sunday without the injection of cold air that the GFS has. High pressure building from the west rather than the north.

The GFS 12z is following earlier runs by having the easter weekend starting off a bit iffy, then improving later on but by Monday there could be another band of rain encroaching from the west. So the best days look to be Saturday and Sunday at this stage with temperatures starting off below average, then rising to average on Sunday. The Azores high doesnt really seem interested at the moment and we are having to rely on 'off cuts' of high pressure which arent really bringing anything that warm. That looks to change just after the after period though so hopefully the Azores high can play more of a part as we enter April.

2003 was a topsy turvy summer, i.e not as dry as some might think. but temperature wise it was almost constantly warm despite a brief cool unsettled spell at the end of June/beginning of July. Despite July being quite a wet month it didnt prevent the grass round here looking as parched in Autumn as ive ever seen it.

Well BST has begun, the light evenings are here so lets get some summer talk started. Its round about now that thoughts are turning towards possible heatwaves, thunderstorms and Spanish Plumes. So what will Summer 2015 bring? Heres a peach of a chart from August 1995 to get you in the mood

Well those looking to get away for the Easter break will like the look of this. Warmest temps to be found in the SW.

My eye is drawn to the GFS in FI. Stunning April warmth and sunshine. Just for fun of course.

Well the GFS is firming up on a fairly settled Easter period with high pressure resident over the UK. However temperature wise it looks nothing special with temperatures likely to nudge into double figures but nothing more than that. Quite pleasant if we get light enough winds.

I know its not out of the ordinary. However the amount of mornings that ive had to wait for the car to de ice and have to walk to work at 7am into a biting wind is quite astonishing. Nothing very cold, just a couple of degrees above freezing and a penetrating wind. Add that to all those days of PM northwesterlies during winter and its getting frustrating. It doesnt help that my walk to work takes me in a west direction where most of this winters cold has originated from.

Easter weekend looking much nicer on the 18z, sure will be what most are hoping for with holidays planned, days out etc. Friday is pleasantly warm for most of England and Wales, and despite temperatures falling back towards average during the weekend it still stays settled and pleasant.

I wish these morning frosts would go away. Most annoying now that were well into Spring. Totally unecessary.