Milhouse

The GFS is a tale of 2 halves. Up to t+240 its a story of mild southwesterly winds, occasional bands of rain and some decent dry days too especially for the SE. From T+240 onwards high pressure builds north across the UK and sets up residence to our northeast dragging in cooler air from the east, which translates to temperatures on the ground in the region of 6-10c.

Surely ice days are virtually impossible so late, except for the rarest of cases such as March 2013. Temperatures look too low on that chart to me. On the GFS 6Z on wetterzentrale it shows no lower than 7/8c. Thats what id expect with upper 850s around -5/-6c.

The GFS is liking the idea of a very mild first half to next week with the NW seeing quite a lot of rain but becoming drier and warmer the further SE you are. With warm winds wafting up from the Azores we could even see 17/18c reached. The Atlantic properly breaks through to end then week but its not too long before high pressure nudges in to settle things down for all parts. The ECM op still has a messy look to thinks with a mild SW flow never really setting up to deliver mild temperatures similar to the GFS. The op ends with cold air filtering down into central and eastern Europe. But this is not supported by the mean which indicates temperatures and pressure on the rise from the south as we approach day 10.

The huge backtrack has already occurred when the ECM removed its cold easterly for this weekend and instead we are seeing temperatures at the other end of the scale. With mean charts like this it indicates a mild 7-10 days to come and a fair bit of dry weather around. High pressure directly over us at this time of year can lead to supressed temps due to mist, fog and low cloud so we will avoid that.

The ECM does show the Atlantic making inroads into northwestern parts especially but at the moment it looks like the high pressure over the near continent will be strong enough to deflect the proper unsettled weather away to the north. Weather fronts will make their way across the country on the ECM 12z but i suspect that they will be quite weak by the time they reach the south east. The GFS looks better for delivering pleasant warmth more nationwide over the next 7-10 days whereas the ECM has cooler air filtering in from the west so temperatures would fall to nearer normal after this weekend.

The GFS 12z has a weakening weather front gradually sinking south over the weekend before fizzling out early next week. Ahead of it we are in a run of very mild southwesterlies but cooler air will be coming in behind the front. As the front never really reaches the south coast it should stay mild for longest here. Beyond t+240 it all gets a bit uncertain. The 12z has us under attack from the Atlantic whereas the 6z had a large area of high pressure over the UK.

The ECM has winds switching round to a more easterly direction later on dragging in slightly colder air but with upper air temps still above zero i would expect temperatures to be still in the range 8-12c. The main surge of mild air is still set to arrive this weekend before temperatures drop back as cooler air comes into the mix.

Well the first spell of springlike warmth is approaching and to make it even better it looks like the peak of the warmth will coincide with the weekend. No doubt there will be the familiar hum of a distant lawnmower. The ECM mean is very supportive of a light and very mild southwestwerly resulting in some very mild/even pleasantly warm temperatures. After initially going off the idea, the GFS is back showing a more pronounced rise in pressure.

The GFS 12z is setting us up for a very mild next weekend and becoming warmer still into the following week as high pressure builds and winds fall light. UKMO as far as T+144 looks an improving picture after a below average and windy start to the week. A strong ridge builds in by Thursday. Very pleasant charts with meteorological Spring set to begin.

April 2nd in Hereford

High pressure barreling in earlier on the 12z

I am expecting the ECM op to move further in line with the GFS and UKMO this evening bringing forward the Atlantic air and building high pressure in. Going by the ECM means of recent runs, thats the way it is heading.

That must have been the briefest of flirtations with an easterly i have ever week. 2 ECM runs bring a cold continental flow but within no time we are back looking at the prospect of some welcome spring warmth. Winter had the chance to produce something good but it didnt so bring on some pleasant spring sunshine and good growing conditions for those Spring plants. It was dreadful seeing the countryside so bare during the Spring of 2013, so im pleased it aint going to happen this time.

ECM mean similar to the GEFS mean at day 10 If the day 10 means are to be believed its set to settle down into the second week of the month. Colder air would cling on in the east for longest but milder air would to move into western parts bringing some springlike warmth with it.

Probably because most have noticed the cold easterly in FI has now been replaced by the onset of milder Atlantic air. No one can be sure of anything when there has been such a shift in the space of 24 hrs.

6.9c please

Tomorrow marks the first pre 7am sunrise here. Sunset still languishing well behind where i would like it but its all change in a months time.

Encouraging signs but clearly it might not pan out that way. But given some bright/sunny spells and a light westerly or southwesterly it WILL start to feel springlike.

The ECM mean highlights the potential for a more settled spell developing GEFS mean also keen to bring high pressure into play from the south around day 10.

After today im looking at the models for signs of lighter winds on the way. Whilst staying breezy for the rest of the week, it shouldnt be as windy as it has been today. Not fun at all having to walk straight into it at 7am this morning.

Its definitely a day for staying indoors. Not unless you like this sort of weather. Im quite looking forward to the coming week. A fair bit of strengthening sunshine to really show off the lengthening days. And temperatures edging back to where they should be at this time of year.

GEFS 12z mean has higher pressure attempting to ridge up from the south around the turn of the month. But the general pattern for the next 10-15 days remains a changeable one with no clear signal either way. Temperatures remain around average, so the transition into early Spring looks pretty average and unremarkable.

Yes its almost time to get back on my bike again to and from work. I recall being able to set out at half 6 in the morning last year in just a tshirt. Cant wait to feel that lovely warm soft air again and strong summer sunshine. But its Spring first and theres tentative signs that the first pleasant springlike spell may not be too far away.

Will be interesting to see if the ECM 12z brings forward the start of a more settled spell just like the GFS 12z just has. This mornings ECM mean had winds veering more westerly later on so more in the way of early Spring mildness if it were to verify. This would feel pleasantly Springlike in fairly light winds

Daffs in select locations are coming into flower here. Quite surprised to see it actually, although others are much less behind in their growth. And...... its only 10 days till meteorological Spring