Milhouse

The GFS 12z has the northern half of the UK stuck under cooler, more unsettled conditions during the upcoming weekend and into next week. For roughly the Midlands southwards it is a story of moist tropical air bringing rain at times. But some decent temperatures also look likely, rising into the mid teens for some.

As the run continues it stays fine and pleasantly mild for the southern half of the UK. Becoming warmer still.

The GFS 12z shows substantially warmer conditions across southern parts at the weekend. Temps up to the mid teens in brisk moist westerlies. Bright or sunny spells may be at a premium but in any sunshine it could feel quite warm.

Breezy, fairly cloudy but very mild sums up the ECM in the latter stages tonight. The 10c isotherm grazing the south coast so rising temperatures both day and night.

The smell of unfurling blossom is noticeable round here but im yet to smell fresh cut grass though. The stench of muck spreading on the fields in late Summer is horrible.

Some Springlike warmth may be not too far away if the GEFS mean is to be believed. Warm SW winds bathing the UK in above average temperatures out at day 9/10. But were not there yet.

The benign early Spring conditions persist in the short to medium term. Looking fairly chilly by day and night for a time next week before signs emerging across all models of a return to a more mobile Atlantic regime with winds coming from a milder westerly direction. It has been quite mild today however despite upper air temps 0c or below for all but southern England.

Hopefully we can soon rid the forum of those two annoying words at least until Autumn arrives.

Im waiting patiently for some warmth to properly arrive despite it not being too bad at the moment. By that i mean its still quite dry and good for the outdoors despite being on the cool side. April should provide more in the way of warmth.

Indeed. The CET is round about average at the moment so you cant really get a more typical start to Spring than we have had. The models are painting a very nondescript and average outlook tbh. Cloudy and cool for some with the odd milder day mixed in. Some Spring sunshine too.

The GFS 12z is actually a decent run for delivering some fairly high temperatures under high pressure. Pressure building throughout next week, then declining from the north during next weekend. Becoming rather pleasant too. What is for sure is high pressure will be not too far from the UK throughout the next week, The GFS 12z has it in the ideal position for some pleasant conditions. The ECM has the high further west allowing fronts and cooler air to slip down from the north.

Looking at the next 8/9 days the gfs 6z has plenty of pleasant springlike conditions on offer. The next proper 'nice' feeling day looks to be Tuesday where winds are set to fall light and slightly warmer air is set to drift northwards from off the continent. Right out to the weekend high pressure is resident over the UK bringing a mix of cooler cloudy days and pleasantly warm sunny ones as a result of the different airmasses under high pressure. Out at t+240 the Atlantic fires up but most places should get a taste of spring next week.

The ECM mean does support a cooling trend in FI but not as abrupt as the op suggests.

However the ECM ends on a showery and cold/cool theme. A very up and down next 10 days to come in terms of temperature.

UKMO looking promising too with a large area of high pressure building over the UK bringing settled springlike conditions nationwide.

The GFS 12z two areas of high pressure joining forces over the UK next week delivering pleasant temperatures under mostly light winds. By midweek temperatures widely into double figures.

Strong indications that we are heading towards a fairly settled period with high pressure over or near the UK. The high to the NE will slowly slip eastwards through next week with the Azores high also moving up from the SW to potentially join forces and prolong the predominantly dry conditions. The 12z mean outputs showing this nicely.

The GFS 12z also has an easterly developing through the weekend and into the first park of next week - that is a certainty now but by Tuesday the Atlantic has begun its fight back and deflected the colder air back northwards. However not soon enough to prevent a particulary cool few days on Sunday and Monday especially for eastern areas. But milder air then pushes back into the south west as winds change direction.

I can feel that temperature rising outside. And its sunny too. Dont believe what anyone says about southwesterlies and cloudy and dull. Okay it is like that for some but theres a lot of the country under blue skies at the moment.

The GEFS mean at day 10 is superb if its early Spring warmth your after. And the southerly waft of warm air continues thereafter. The ECM mean has more of an easterly component

The ECM mean is supportive of a change to a dry and fairly mild spell developing by next weekend. How chilly any easterly gets will depend on how far west the colder air manages to reach as it battles against mild air from the south. Despite winds set to come from the same direction as late March 2013 crucially its the source of the air that will make the difference this time. The GFS shows temperatures remaining mostly in double figures.

GFS has 16c over Yorkshire tomorrow. Brisk winds however, but perfect for blowing away the cobwebs of winter and ushering in the new season

Before the main rise in pressure in FI, the ECM mean has disturbances running SW-NE indicating occasional pulses of rain spreading west to east, likely to occur Sunday-Wednesday prior to the main rise in pressure from the South. Good growing conditions for sure with temperatures on the mild side.

ECM mean once again has a big rise in pressure later on. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

However last August did balance things out somewhat bringing the CET for the whole summer back nearer average. So it was not as good as 2013. It had its heatwave in July but also its cool spells too which frustratingly coincided with when i went camping during August.