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cooling climate

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Everything posted by cooling climate

  1. cooling climate
    Out to t180 on wetterzentrale and certainly much more amplified than the 12z and a lot closer now to the ECM run earlier.
  2. cooling climate
    IF we were to get to t240 then a potent (perhaps very potent) easterly would be virtually a dead cert. Below is the t240 chart with arrows showing the way I would expect the pattern to evolve from there.
  3. cooling climate
    The last few runs the GFS has been playing about with amplifing the pattern in the t150 to t196 time frame. Now the UKMO and the ECM show this. Hopefully this is a work in progress and we will see further amplification with a link to the the stronger heights much further north. ECM t240 is almost pornagraphic. beautiful, beautiful chart. I want to see t264 etc lol. Good old strat warming I knew it would not let us down.
  4. cooling climate
    Fair point. I have trawled through more upper air charts( gph, temperature and zonal wind) than I care to remember using the NCEP daily composite charts. On many occasions I found that after a warming and increase in gph has subsided at the 10 and 30mb level it reappears at the top of the troposphere (200 300mb) on down some two weeks or more later. I see no reason to believe this will not happen this time with a much colder last third of February and on into March due to the location of the warming. Of course this is purely my own take on what I think will transpire. Cheers.
  5. cooling climate
    The vortex has been nowhere near the UK this winter and is wrong to suggest otherwise. The models are showing some amplification to the north and northeast but the ECM is still outside the timeframe when this will be beneficial for the UK I think. It will be several days yet before we see more consistent signs of a more wintry flavour to the output for the UK. Of course these are just my thoughts on how things may develope based on the warming that is taking place in the mid to upper stratosphere. If we are not to see a worthwhile potent wintry period either before winters end or the first half of spring then hopefully we will see a quick transition to a very mild and dry spring and summer.
  6. cooling climate
    While others are happy to dismiss the effects of the strat warming down onto the troposphere which may benefit our locale I am not. I would still expect to see better amplification and blocking to the north/northeast for the last third of February and into the first third of March even more so if it is followed fairly quickly by another warming,which the GFS runs are doing although not to any great extent at the moment. I am not saying we are going to see the sort of blocking we have seen like last winter or some of the previous winters(the warming although significant was not sustained for long enough) but there should be sufficient height increases to bring something of a much more wintry flavour.
  7. cooling climate
    Do not agree with regard to the warming not propagating down through the strat to the trop. This will become increasingly obvious in the NWP charts over the coming days. If the warming that is showing towards the end of the GFS runs does verify then with a pre-condiitioned strat this could lead to extensive northern blocking.
  8. cooling climate
    I think some are in for a surprise come the second half of February and on into March. It could be a very cold end of February and start of spring but again why posters are basing their assumptions on ECM ens etc when they have already led many up the garden path this winter. The strat, trop feed back looks to me as if it will pay dividens with perhaps some wintryness around next week(it would be nice to see snow falling even if it does not settle) but much colder uppers and the prospect of laying snow look a lot more likely to me now around the last third of February and the first 10 days of March, PS. I see some are still challenging for the longest post of the winter competion.
  9. cooling climate
    The ECM ens have been very poor this winter as has the ECM op at times. Although that to can be said for the UKMO and the GFS as well. Amplification to the north and northeast continues to be the trend for the middle of the month onwards. Where some get the idea of a southerly tracking jet this winter I have not got the foggiest you only have to look back through December and January to see this is not so.
  10. cooling climate
    For well over a week now I have been touting a pattern change to one of more blocking or amplification to the north and lows tracking further south with hopefully a decent continental feed bringing cold uppers and finally a taste of winter. This is now starting to show in the model output and is brought about by the ongoing strat warming. Plenty of changes to come in the output as the models get to grips with this with the strongest period of blocking probably the last two weeks of the month. I know if I could take one week of proper cold wintry weather, laying snow etc from this awful winter I will be happy.
  11. cooling climate
    Posted in the strat thread a while ago that we should expect to see higher pressure or blocking to our north in the next couple of weeks and that the models should soon start to pick up on this. Well the 12z ECM shows just the sort of synoptics I was referring to. The vortex stateside has been pushed back over northwestern Canada with high pressure over the eastern sea board and eastern Canada.Again if the run continued for another 48 hours or so we would almost certainly see pressure increasing to the north and northeast with the lows moving into the continent and much colder uppers being pulled down from the north and northeast. All courtesy of the strat warming. Now all it has to do is verify.
  12. cooling climate
    Doubt very much the troposphere will follow the Mid to upper strat at all. Should expect to see blocking showing up to our north in the next couple of weeks. I would expect the models to start picking up on this soon.
  13. cooling climate
    The point was that due to the warming ongoing now in the stratosphere (regardless of what your upper air profiles are showing you) I am saying there is a pattern change on the way to colder conditions from around mid month onwards. I am sure you upper profiles will latch onto this at some time or other. We have had this conversation before and you know my views.
  14. cooling climate
    Changes definitely taking place in the extended output and plenty of time still to salvage something from this awful winter that we have had. I wish the GFS 12z run had continued for another 100 hours or so as I think it would of been quite a wintry outlook. Although of course it is far distant FI but its trends we are looking for and they seem to be pointing in the right direction. It will be nice though to put this winter behind us and hopefully enjoy a warm and dry spring and summer before thoughts turn again to winter once more.
  15. cooling climate
    Although stuck on t192 the GFS 06z chart clearly shows the effects of wave 2 strat warming filtering down into the troposphere.Can not remember when I last saw high pressure where the vortex has sat most of the winter. FI starting to look a lot colder than we have been use to with lows tracking further south and higher pressure then trying to ridge north. Of course by this time we are into the middle of February and to have laying snow you really need the colder uppers but I feel that we are beginning to see a positive feed back of the warming in the strat down into the NWP models. Hopefully this will now continue in future runs and we will see an increasingly colder outlook for around the middle of February onwards.
  16. cooling climate
    Why sound so condescending when answering a post.Agreed snowy. The t300 plus charts some 12plus days ago look nothing likethey do now especially higher up around the 1mb level. Although at thatrange this is only to be expected I suppose.
  17. cooling climate
    I am almost certain that their will be tropospheric effects from this warming and with its location I am sure we will benifit from this.A paper I read on stratosphere warmings(unfortunately I can not remember which paper this was)stated that the warming can be lost in the mid-layers only to show up again in the lowest levels of the stratosphere and in the troposphere. PS. just read Recretos last post so it will be very interesting to see how the troposphere reacts in the next two weeks or so.
  18. cooling climate
    I know lol but I seriously think there will be much more of a tropospheric responsethan what the models are showing at present.The GFS is all over the place in how it is handling the movement of segments of vortices and as such its output could be seriously flawed. I would expect to see the vortex move further west over Canada due to the forcing from the wave 2. Of course I could be completely wrong here but I just do not buy what the models are showing.Again I could be misjudging the tropospheric lag effect but with a + QBO I would expect to see a quicker response.
  19. cooling climate
    Without having to make to long a rambling post I think it is almost certain that the cold to come in February will be from the east/northeast especially at first before becoming north/northeasterly in nature. The GFS has started to hint at changes in its FI output but I think once this strong warming is underway things will change in the NWP charts fairly quickly. I would say we should be under a very cold east/northeasterly by the middle of the month if not before and by the end of the weekend this should be prominant in the GFS runs and should even appear towards the end of the ECM charts.
  20. cooling climate
    All the models are clueless at the moment. Big changes coming due to strat warming.The models are slowly catching on.
  21. cooling climate
    I do not see a problem with the strat developments despite the energy transfering over.The vortex is being stretched,elongated and weakened with stronger warming over ourside of the pole which should allow for better heights. As long as we have theamplification we can still have a Scandi high which would be my bet.The charts will look a lot different by the time we get round to the weekend.
  22. cooling climate
    The 12z intensifies the warming out to t240 it not worth looking beyond that due to the greater inconsistency of the output. It will be interesting to see where the ECM sits tomorrow.If the t240 charts verify this would be our strongest wave 2 warming of the season I am sure we would see effects of this in the troposphere and NWP charts. I thought I would post and save the 10mb t240 temperature chart just to see how close it comes to verifing.
  23. cooling climate
    The strat warming out to t240 is intensified on the 12z.It is not worth looking beyond this as the charts are jumping around all over the place. It will be interesting to see where the ECM sits tomorrow. As I said earlier the GFS 12Z offers much better profile over the Arctic in the earlier time frames with better heights and the vortices staying on the Siberian side a trend that I think will increase.The rest of the run in low res is one for the bin. As for the UKMO it is still forcing the Siberian vortices westward at t120 which does not look right to me and I would expect to see the opposite with the vortices staying over the Siberian side.
  24. cooling climate
    Better profile over the pole at t120 with the vortex over northeastern Siberia not so quick to move west.
  25. cooling climate
    As long as charts like this from the GFS at t216 hardly FI are still forecast then I remain encouraged that amplification from this wave 2 warming will bring results and again I would say do not trust the models beyond t144. Agreed the forecast from the ECM strat charts is not as strong but it is still there and would still be the strongest wave 2 we have seen this winter. The 10 day t240 chart at 30mb is also quite encouraging and certainly to me anyway shows that nothing is set in stone.
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