cooling climate

If I am reading this right are you inclinating that we could perhaps see a pressure rises over Canada, Greenland down the line.

The ECM 12z finishes with one of the mildest mid January east/southeasterlies I think I have seen. Can not take that run seriously. Nothing to do with not showing cold it just looked totally implausable.

Maybe its just me but the ECM t168 chart looks all wrong. In 24 hours the low drops directly south 500 miles and files 20mb with no distruption or anything. Can not see that verifing. Lol at t192 its going northwest. I would expect better from the pub run.

You have to laugh ECM at t120 showing a different solution to its previous runs and different again from the UKMO and GFS. Having said that it shows much more promise of than that of the other two models and is quite a good chart with the potential for some wet snow.

looking at the models the ECM 0z at t168 does not look a million miles different from the UKMO at t144 this evening.

After reanalysing the UKMO t144 chart it is definitely better than the GFS at that range and would offer better chances of colder snowier weather as long as the low starts to disrupt soon after.

At this rate give another day or two and there will be no sigh of an easterly in the models and we will wonder what all the fuss was about. The UKMO at t144 just about dangles a carrot but you would have to think that the heights over Scandinavia will drain away southeast similar to the GFS run. Only good point on the GFS 12z as some have already mentioned is the stratosphere warming in FI. You never know we might see a cold snap in february with -5c 850's covering the country. Real polar vortex weather.

Oh dear there is nothing remotely pleasing about the GFS 12z op run. The only positive you could say is that it does not model energy in the Atlantic very well and if that is wrong then the whole run is faulty. Lets see what the Euro's say.

Well I for one think it will be a good afternoon model watching for all of us coldies out there.Heights rising to the north and northeast with pressure dropping to the south should aid in Atlantic trough disruption which is being underdone by the models imo. We should soon find out hopefully.

Well I would be quite happy to bank this run. Taking it at face value, precipitation charts etc. If the reality is something like this then I think most would be happy.

I think it is becoming clear that we are likely to see a sausage orientated shaped high. Not a bad run so far considering it is the 06z run and although it has corrected further east with the block I would not be surprised to see this correct back west in future runs.

t144 and the block is 10mb higher than on the 0z run. so far liking this run a lot.

On a more sobering note with the wave 2 amplification at its greatest over the next week of so this is probably our best shot at getting a cold spell to take hold but if this goes titicus verticus then we may not see another chance for a couple of weeks or more. The 06z out to t132 looking good just need the trough to disrupt under the block to stop it sinking and bingo.

The UKMO does not inspire a lot of joy. The trough to the west would probably disrupt somewhat but the cold would be kept further north over Scotland I would have thought. Nothing is certain yet though and still all to play for.

It is entirely possible of course that the down welling wave 2 in the lower stratosphere will amplify over the Greenland plateau as shown by the 18z. I am not saying it will happen but it is definitely a possibility. Hard to believe you could have a chart such as at t192 and yet most of the country is only covered in -2to -3c 850's

Here is a paper that does not confirm Labitzke's results regarding solar max and SSW in a westerly QBO. solar warming.pdf

This mornings ECM 0z at t168 This afternoons ECM 12z at t168

They look very similar to me with the UKMO wave looking just a little more amplified. The result would be the same though. ECM out to t96 looking great.

Well thats what we were all hoping to see this morning and just what you want to see at the t144-168 time frame rather than at t240 and likely to implode. Will be very interesting reading the turn around on the Met update later. Excellent stuff.

Very happy with the output this evening. It is an evolving pattern therefore I would be less happy if we saw fantastic synoptics at say t192 as this would evolve and change. Hopeing for more upgrades tomorrow within this time frame.

liking the ECM run so far. The t144 chart is full of promise looking forward to a very good run here.

How many times have we seen the ECM deliver the goods with a superb run and then to back track on following runs although it did not quite make it on this run. Taking into account the promising 12z GFS run you would be inclined to think the ECM is on the money and by tomorrow it would be showing a full blown easterly but like a bad toothache that won't go away you are reminded of the UKMO run.

Hi Snowking I would like to clarify a few points. The failed easterly that we saw in December 12 had everything to do with the Jan 13 warming which originated in the western Pacific and moved northeast ward across America, the UK and Europe ending in a very strong EAMT. This was shown very well in the CDAS 10mb temperature animation at the time. This warming led to the blocking we saw in Jan, Feb, and especially March which was also aided by another strong EAMT around the middle of February.A strong EAMT is ongoing at the moment with a wave 2 warming although the warming on the Siberian side is the strongest but in the days to come this is expected to wane and the warming on our side increase which will help push the vortex away from us stretching it as it does so. It is this warming and how it affects the vortex both in strength and orientation that will determine wheather we see a pattern change to colder wintry weather or not in the next few weeks. If the warming is not strong enough to disrupt the vortex you may be looking at a late warming or even an early final warning to see colder wintry weather during the spring.

Stratospheric forecasts this morning are again poor the GFS strat charts are jumping around like a cat on a hot tin roof. Yesterday they were showing almost a split vortex at 30mb and lower where as today the vortex remains strong throughout the run.With such inconsistency it is hard to make any sort of longer range forecast but without some serious disruption and weakening to the vortex that has appeared in the strat charts over the last week or so then a pattern change to much colder and wintry weather is less likely. Taking the ECM and GFS op runs this morning at face value you would have to say that we are at the very least a good 14days away from any thought of colder wintry weather affecting the UK. Of course this can change but there is little sign of it from the models this morning.

Well after a good dose of prozac and a much better strat profiile from the GFS 12z run I again feel much more optimistic with regard to my posts over the last several days with the prospect of higher pressure to our north/northeast during the last half of January. The ECM run tonight was very good and although we did not quite get there the trend is for pressure to build to the north/northeast and lower pressure to the south with deep cold imbedded over Europe gradually moving west. I would not be at all surprised to see a Mr Murr's sausage shape high set up to the north of the UK on through Scandinavia into western Russia before the month is out.