cooling climate

Very uninspiring run from the 06z GFS. In FI the 06z takes a differnt course from the 0z run which can be expected but the consistency out to t216 can not be ignored. The Euro models still transfering Arctic heights into the northeast although the ECM this morning is very poor as the heights sink away southeast. I still consider this to be the form horse and one to follow for cold into the UK but given the consistency this morning by the GFS if this does not change track in the next 24 hours then expect the Euro's to revert to the GFS solution post t120.

GFS 06z out to t216 very consistent with the 0z output.

Many in the parts of east Anglia and the southeast saw laying snowin Feb 2012.Was just thinking that if the GFS is slightly to far west in trying topush heights towards Greenland and the European runs slightly to far eastwe could be in prime position.Plus if the runs show the high to be in the perfect position at t240 andyou know the output will change as the timeframe gets closer you invarablyfing the block in the wrong position by t0. Therefore if the models arecorrect with a block forming to the northeast (that would be my punt) thenhopefully over the next few days we will see the block orientate to a muchbetter position for the UK.

ECM and UKMO virtually identical at t144 with the ECM trying to get into the festive spirit in its extended output and practically succeeding. Definitely think the northeast is the direction to look for cold. A little more amplifcation and westward movement and we could very well be looking at some noteworthy cold and wintry weather. Will future runs move the pattern more in our favour or not is the question. Fingers crossed.

I can remember at least two occasions early December last year and December 2011when the BBC weather had stated that the December weather was likely to becolder than normal with a greater risk of snow and ice. They then went on to showvideo clips of the snow in 2009 and 2010.No sooner had these these forecasts beenaired it was as if someone had flicked a switch and the NWP models etc changed toa much milder pattern which as we know verified.The point of course is that although a colder more wintry pattern during Januaryis certainly not set in stone nor is one of mider regardless of what the BBC orMet office say.

The 06z finally out and it turns out to be a very wintry looking run in FI. A very promising run this morning from the ECM plus the 06Z GFS with very good ens support for northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet. Maybe winter is now just around the corner as some of us have been touting for the last few days.

A very MERRY CHRISTMAS to everyone on Netweather have a great day.

Very good GFS 12z this afternoon considering what we have had to put up with so far this winter. I was beginning to wonder when the models would revert back to showing heights building to the north/northeast to link up with the Arctic high moving towards Spitzbergen. The ECM 12z is starting to get to grips with the pattern change by the looks of things.

I would not have thought that the warming would have had much affect in thetroposphere at that range. The warming is still up around the 10-30mb level.The GPH maps show a possible split taking place in the mid levels (30mb)andas this downwells in to the lower levels and hopefully troposphere in the daysto come we should see a split taking place.I have a question which has been nagging me. How do you know what is wave 1activity and what is wave 2.Cheers.

I see some others are now beginning to see what has been showing up in the models for the last few days now. As BA said though patience is the key. The 18z seems to have lost the plot early in the run.

The building blocks for a potential east/northeaterly type feed as we go into the second week of Jan start as early as t168 with the Arctic high migrating towards Spitzbergen. Confidence level of this happening is growing daily.

Still plenty to be encouraged by this morning. ECM t240 looking full of promise. I think people need to remeber we are looking at post Jan 7th for cold pattern to set up so there will be ups and downs from the models.

There are indeed some promising signals starting to show up in the NWP charts as in the strat charts and with the strongest part of the vortex anchored over the Canadian side it is no coincedence to see pressure rising to the north east. Or you could look at it that its because pressure is rising to the northeast the strongest part of the vortex is over Canada.

For some reason that animation does not seem to be working so I will try again. Pity the 12z run did not carry on for another week for we would almost certainly see a potent easterly setting up. Of course at over t400 hours away it is just a dream but with the 200mb profile the way it is then maybe not so far fetched. Still does not appear to be working but trust me there is a warming around Spitsbergen and the end of the animation.

Really like the direction the 12z FI is taking us. It also ties in with what the CDAS 200mb temp anomalies are showing with warming to our NE. Of course its a work in progress but something to follow perhaps.

Third row down looks very interesting.

Again tentative signs of something much more promising possible developing as we move into the second week of Jan onwards. Anthing beforehand will be just transitory in nature and any talk of very cold weather setting in at the end of the month or turn of the new year is just wishful thinking and certainly not based on any meteorological evidence.

I certainly would not put much faith in the GFS 12z op run. Nothing really changed this evening from what I can see apart from tentative signs of something more promising as we go into 2014 although as I said the GFS run this afternoon is way, way over the top with regards to northern blocking.

It is a shame, we wait patiently for what can be many posters favorite season and we get delt this. I think realistically we are looking at around the 10-15th of January onwards before we see anything more than the odd cold snap. Is there a Christmas skin this year. Cheers.

This is good news as you say. The two Indexes are closely linked in fact I remember reading on the American forum that some were saying the OPI was a rip off of Cohen's work which is the wrong way to look at it. Before reading this I was just posting on the seasonal thread about my poor winter forecast and quoted the OPI index along with the SAI as the ones to watch in future to give us a heads up perhaps as to the state of the stratosphere during the approaching winter. I certainly never foresaw the extent and forcing of the very cold mid stratosphere that we have now.

I forecast a very cold winter perhaps even severe and was in fact quite confident of the forecast where as now that looks a million miles away. The very cold stratosphere was definitely my undoing and did not foresee this at all infact I expected the complete oposite after monitoring the above average ozone in the lower stratosphere throughout the summer and autumn. The OPI ( October pattern index) is verifing very well at the moment and along with the SAI (snow advance index) looks to be something that merits alot more attention in future. Also the lack of any MJO induced wave breaking or Asian mountain torques has been another of my predicted downfalls. Until we see a significant warming in the lower to mid stratosphere I think we can put to bed any notion of prolonged very cold wintry weather for the UK for without the warming there will be no HLB's. Apart from the one or two cold snaps perhaps I think any chance of prolonged winter weather for the uk lies in the second half of winter (10-15 January onwards). One other thing I would say is that there is a good deal of very cold air to the north this winter because of the strong vortex etc and if we do see any warming that works in our favour then we could see bitterly cold weather affect the UK (-15c to -16c) perhaps.

No change in the offering. Poor charts if your looking for sustained cold snowy winter weather. Apart from some transient snow higher up here and there until we start to see changes ie warming in the lower to mid strat which will encourage blocking to the north then things are not going to change very much. Is there a Christmas skin out this year.

Nothing remotely appealing about this afternoons and evenings runs from a coldies point of view if you are looking for something far wintrier than transient hill snow at best. Only an eternal optimist could find something positive to say I'm afraid.

Agreed really poor charts. I do not think it gets much worse than this from a cold perspective. Looking at the 200mb temp anomaly plot look very exciting but looking at the troposhere/ stratosphere flux charts it looks as though nothing is getting past 70 degrees north. Maybe of more interest is what is happening at 10mb. could be something to watch and then again could be nothing.

Strange, It still does not work the stratosphere section is missing from the drop down section when you press maps. I also wonder if anyone uses the NOAA arctic theme page site to look at temperatures around the Arctic.These are still showing the 17th of September and on the Arctic maps site Athropolis the temps on the russian side are still from the summer. Sorry to clog the thread up but since it is quite in here, hope you do not mind. Cheers.