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cooling climate

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Everything posted by cooling climate

  1. cooling climate
    I think we are going to see some fantastic outputs in the days ahead with major blocking starting to appear to the north and northeast although it looks as though the 06z GFS operational is trying to get in on the act already. A major change in the weather for Europe and the UK will undoubtable unfold with bitter cold from the east and northeast to come. Now thats what I call a ramp.
  2. cooling climate
    HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL ON NETWEATHER. The stratosphere warming on the GFS 06z run is off the scale with the vortex looking totally obliterated. The warming is to the north and northeast of the UK which should put a smile on all cold winter weather lovers faces this morning. Plus there is significant warming that starts as early as t240. Excellent stuff, Now where's that sledge.
  3. cooling climate
    I think as we go through January we will see pressure increasing across eastern America with a very different second half of winter for them possibley while hights will slowly increase and build to our west and northeast. This will lead to a colder pattern as we go through Jan for the UK and Europe.
  4. cooling climate
    Cheers, it made me wonder with the warming backing off slightly from the 18z last night but of course their are likely to be inconsistencies at that range. I would not be at all surprised though to see the warming strengthen again on this afternoon and this evenings runs.
  5. cooling climate
    Fantastic insight from Recretos with top quality posts, brilliant stuff. This is not the model thread so may be able to get away with mentioning it in here but I was wondering would there be less data higher up during the next couple of days due to the time of year.
  6. cooling climate
    Do you mean snow. lol.
  7. cooling climate
    A very strange request from you Chionomaniac considering the great work and time you have put in to educate posters about the importance of the state of the stratosphere in winter time and the undeniable link it has with the troposphere and different synoptics seen in the troposphere and on the NWP model output. I think all cold winter weather lovers should be very pleased with the GFS 12z run from a stratospheric point of view.
  8. cooling climate
    The building blocks towards a much colder outlook later in January are slowly coming together I feel. The ECM and the 06z GFS run in the extended output give a good indication of where we are headed with a amplification and regression of the pattern as the forecasted warming in the stratosphere works its way down through the lower atmosphere. Although output is likely to be volatile in the longer range due to what is happening in the upper atmosphere. The 1mb temperature strat charts taken from instant weather maps show the warming directly over the pole.
  9. cooling climate
    The warming shown on the strat charts taken from instant weather maps for the 1mb level on the 06z GFS run now show the warming right over the pole.
  10. cooling climate
    With a top down warming forecast to the north of the UK as we go towards the middle of Jan it is worth remembering that downwelling in a +QBO is generally quicker than in a -QBO. Jan 2009 along with Jan 91 which were both +QBO winters. I think what we are likely to see in the extended range of the model outputs over the coming days is for pressure to rise over eastern north America and the nw Atlantic with the troughing turning more nw/se across the Atlantic and pressure remaining high across nw Russia. Then as blocking becomes more prevelent to the north (17th Jan onwards) we should see trough disruption and undercutting as the Russian high moves west. Tentative signs that my long range forecast for the winter which has started so poorly for the second half of December and first half of Jan may become more of a reality during the second half of winter.
  11. cooling climate
    If I am not mistaken end of Jan2009, Jan 1985, and Jan 1991 all of which brought a Scandinavian ridge and east/northeasterly airflow. Not sure about 1987 but would not be at all surprised if this was the same.
  12. cooling climate
    Something to remember is that downwelling in a +QBO regime is generally quicker than during a -QBO. Jan 2009 is a good example plus the warming occurred in a similar area. I think what we are likely to see in the extended range model output over the coming days is for pressure to rise over eastern north America and the western Atlantic and the troughing to be turning more nw/se with pressure remaining high over nw Russia. Then as blocking becomes more prevelent to the north (Jan 17th onwards) we are likely to see trough disruption and undercutting as the russian block moves west.
  13. cooling climate
    It will be interesting to read the Meto updates over the coming days. I would of thought the nearer we get to a SSW the stronger the blocking and synoptically and tropospheric wise the closer we could get to a Jan87 or Feb 91 type of event. I know I am getting way, way ahead of myself but its hard to curb my enthusiasm after such a poor first third of winter plus if this is to be a significant warming then the possibilities mentioned are certainly on the table.
  14. cooling climate
    Early days but if the strat warming to the north of the UK is correct then we would be in prime position for northern blocking and bitterly cold Arctic outbreaks from the east, northeast. This could turn our winter on its head so to speak. Also the NWP output would become even more inconsistent for a while offering a wide range of solutions. Back to the here and now and 15 days or so I think we are likely to see some colder intrusions with hill snow and perhaps one or two surprises for lower elevations these will be interspersed with milder wet windy and milder weather. The last two weeks of January and on into February should become much more interesting.
  15. cooling climate
    The warming that is forecast to take place to the north of the UK is probably down to the deep convection 160-120w in the Pacific drawing warm air high into the atmosphere. I am hoping that the runs today will intensify this warming again as we saw last evening.
  16. cooling climate
    Following on from my last post regarding the stratosphere the 18z has picked up where the 12z left off. As long as this is not a red herring you could not ask for warming in a better place than to the north of the UK. I would imagine the met offices strat model has already picked this up hence their 30 day outlook earlier. Depending on the strength of the warming this could really turn out to be a winter of two halves and winter weather lovers could still have a lot to look forward to in the last third of January and on into February. Not counting brief cold snaps before then that could bring a surprise or two. The warming already showing up at the 20mb level by the end of the run.
  17. cooling climate
    Yes just scene the 18z strat charts, Looks like their strat model may be on the ball already. Certainly could not ask for a better place for the warming to take place. Also the charts showing the warming get down to the 20mb range by the end of the run. If this is no red herring then we could very well be looking at a winter of two halves.
  18. cooling climate
    Posted this in the model thread but more suited in here. Very exciting developments on the GFS 12z run when looking at the strat charts on instant maps. This could all be gone on the next run but if not very, very encouraging signs for blocked and cold weather later in January and on into February.
  19. cooling climate
    Very encouraging signs from the stratosphere taken from the instant weather maps based on the GFS 12z output. This could all change by the next run but if this is correct then its excellent news going forward for later in January and through February. February 47 anyone.
  20. cooling climate
    Unless you have the amplification with an Aleutian ridge to push heights into the Arctic which would probably have happened with a weaker vortex all it does is send Arctic outbreaks south across the midwest and northeast America. I would favor something more akin to what the 12z GFS control is showing following on from a fairly strong Asian MT within the next week or two. The MT is predicted on the back of recent tropical forcing although this could manifest itself in a stronger West coast American ridge or Aleutian ridge.
  21. cooling climate
    The Euro models were on the ball with the hights in the north feeding into northern Scandinavia and nw Russia. The GFS is now doing the same and what this shows is the Siberian high is expanding west. Another Asian mountain torque which should occur within the next 10 days or so should help to expand it even further west imo and by then the longer range outputs from the GFS should start to look a lot more exciting and consistent for winter weather lovers as for the last fornight of Jan and then into February.
  22. cooling climate
    On the Moscow ens the control run was a runaway outlier apart from one other run. I have noticed the last few days on the Moscow ens some big Arctic outbreaks only to be dropped the following runs.
  23. cooling climate
    Well kudos to the Euro's this morning with the GFS backtracking and now draining most of the heights to the north down into Scandinavia and nw Russia as per the Euro outputs. Temps likely to be average to slightly below with some possible transient snowfall perhaps to lower levels as we go through the first 10 days of January. Certainly does not rock my boat but may please others.
  24. cooling climate
    The GFS 12z took longer to get there than I thought but it is definitely the direction to look for cold to the UK. The UKMO is not very reliable at the t144 range but it is certainly not backing down and has in fact further endorsed the trend for heights to the ne in its outer range. This is the direction I was hoping we would see in the earlier part of the run from the GFS. ECM certainly not without interest tonight.
  25. cooling climate
    Well eyes down for another intensely exciting afternoon and early evening model watching. Lets hope we are able to say that at some stage during this winter when a beastely is knocking on the door at t120 and its just a case of how cold will it get and how much snow we will see. Will the GFS move towards the the Euro's sending heights into Scandi or will the reverse happen with the Euro's backtracking towards GFS or of course another stalemate. I would not be at all surprised to see an easterly pop up tonight in one of the runs.
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