cooling climate

This notion of a Canadian vortex = mild UK is a misnomer you only have to look through the archives to see some of our best and severest cold spells (east and northeasterlies)with a Canadian or Bafin Island vortex in place. The big difference is northern HLB's if we get the amplificat ion to the north or northeast then our chances are greatly increased of some proper cold and wintry weather regardless of the vortex to the NW. With the vortices under constant pressure from wave 1 and 2(strat warming) the MJO going into phase 7 will give amplitude needed to finally get some proper blocking into the Arctic.From there it is a question of luck really as to how the cards fall my bet would be brief northerly type then before becoming more northeasterly/easterly. The big pattern changer for me though is the warming being projected by the GFS strat charts from t240 onwards which is still out of range of the ECM at the moment. If the warming that the GFS is showing is anywhere near correct (it has been showing pretty consistently for nearly a week now)then a fantastic few weeks into February and March could await.

I have saved the op run from the ECM 12Z today because the way the upper atmosphere is changing I would not rule it out as another possibility for the end of Jan and start of February. That would be Jan 87 type cold.

Its taken some seven weeks of winter but finally we are at a stage where it is getting exciting anticipating the run to come with some real potential pehaps post day 8 possibly even earlier.

Agreed if the UKMO t144 northern hemisphere chart verified I would grab the runwith both hands.Heights are building to the northeast with Arctic high comingsouth and very cold uppers heading west.

Its strange riding home from work thinking this can not really be winter, someones playing a practical joke and then you see the t264 chart on the GFS 12z and realise what we have been missing.Out in FI land I know but the signal is getting stronger and hopefully there is some real winter ahead of us.

On the contary I think things are shaping up excellently for a cracking last fewweeks of winter but that is just how I see things playing out so to speak.

There is finally something worth talking about in the model output roughly speaking t168 onwards.Before then yes maybe a little wintryness here and there but its from the end of next week onwards that things are really starting to look up.Of course the amplified charts have everything to do with strat warming but just a little caution as the models may be reacting to quickly to what is going on higher up in the atmosphere. Hoping for some fun and games during the last five or so weeks of winter and perhaps on into March.

Ok maybe I used the wrong term by saying deep cold what I ment to say was a pattern in the next 10 days or 9 from tomorrow where the pattern is conducive for snowfall and low laying snow. I would rate our chances as 10% at the very best. I think many are flogging a dead horse here. Beyond day 10 and things may start to change quite rapidly. This strat warming is looking better and better for some fireworks come February.

The trouble is there is no sign from any of the models of the deeper cold reaching the UK. Yeah sure we might see a couple of rather cold, chilly days with dare I say it some air frost thrown in for good measure and as I just posted perhaps a little wet snow here and there but I really do not think that is what people come on this thread looking for not in January anyway. One thing is near certain there is no trend for deep cold to affect the UK within the next 10days.

Very unlikely that anything is going to come out of this pattern. At very best maybe a little wet snow here and there but who wants that. I really think our chances now all rest on the strat warming towards months end and if we are real lucky maybe some real winter weather during February.

The t240 chart lol. Wake Mr Murr up somebody. A nice dumping of snow for southern and western areas I would of thought. Seriously I wonder if Ian F and a few pals are avin a laugh at our expense. I really can not see anyone taking this run seriously surely.

Might as well play along with the run for a while longer. The t192 chart is a beaut pity that a chart such as that can only offer us 850's of -4cto -5c in the third week of January. Lovely cold finally at t216 the t240 could be a slider with trough disruption to the west. Don't believe any of it but nice to have a bit of fun for a change after the never ending boredom without even a sniff of cold.

I really hope the ECM is somewhere near right tonight because for me its in the last chance saloon. There are only so many wind ups you can take from a model. That said synoptically the t144 and 168 charts look great but it seem as if it does not matter what synoptics we get the models do not want to bath us in cold air. 850 temps are very disappointing for quite a good synoptic looking chart.

I may be wrong ( would not be the 1st time) but it looks to me on the 1mb temperature charts in the last few runs as if the warming is slowly moving back west, entering the Arctic more from our locale rather than from mid-Russia northward. If this is the case then this would be much more benificial for us in that we would see a much quicker response I would imagine.

Is it not true that tropospheric heights are a precursor to SSW warmings and it is this that the model is showing rather than the effects of the warming.

I wonder with the wave 2 fading and the stronger wave on the Siberian side being able to spin the vortices anti- clockwise crosspolar on to a meridian axis if you like would this have been better for our chances of cold. Where as now it is starting to look as if a second very strong (perhaps SSW) warming is likely to halt this process and push the vortex (more circular in shape) back towards canada and Greeland. I suppose you could argue that it might improve our chances of more easterly type weather during february perhaps and any strong warming poleward has to be better than what we have, but I did like the look of the crosspolar set up and how this may have manifested itself down into the troposphere.

GFS 12z out to t132 and as I said yesterday there is only one way the high to the east is going and that is south.

Quite agree with this. You can look back through anomaly H5 patterns or composites of years gone by showing the H5 anomaly pattern which at times would suggest the UK in the grip of bitterly cold weather etc when in fact it was not the case at all. In fact I would not mind betting that the anomaly charts over the last week would show a much higher chance of cold affecting the UK than they do now. Thus making them no better for forcasting and at times worse especially when a pattern is about to break down or change.

Don't tell me the moon has changed its mind again. Back to the models and meteorological way of looking at the weather. The window was small regarding blocking to the north/northeast with not enough amplification from the wave 2. Pity, it would have been a whole different ball game if the strat charts earlier in the month had verified. Below shows 100mb gph and temperature charts showing wave 2 amplification. Below on 100mb chart you can see the upper air pattern has de-amplified closing the window to northern blocking, This is why you see the little spoiler shortwaves appearing in the synoptics. Now if we look even further out to 10 days there is strong support that the low height and vortices will be pushed over our side of the pole with little chance of northern blocking. Below is the 100mb chart at 10 day out. This is supported by what is happening higher up in the mid stratosphere at the 30mb level It is not untill we get much further out towards the end of the month when things start to look more favorable for northern blocking. Although at this range we are in FI territory. Below is the 30mb temperature chart showing the polar vortices aligned from Siberia cross polar to the south of the UK. The Blue area is warming where you would expect to see higher heights. Along side is the 30mb gph chart. Now before someone screams northern blocking cross polar flow bitter cold etc etc it is not as simple as that because first these charts are just forecasts and need to verify and second by the time this propagates down into the the troposphere there could well be residule areas of vortices to our north over Greenland etc that would scupper any cold synoptics etc but at least our chances of something more akin to winter will of hopefully increased.

Just goes to show how poor the modeling has been the last several days. This includes ens and anomaly charts etc. When you look at the models now you wonder where all the talk came from regarding a east/northeasterly. I am always suspicious of charts showing good synoptics for a easterly at t240 as you know the pattern will evolve and change but when it is showing strong support at t144-168 and you take into account the verification figures of models such as the ECM and UKMO you a forgiven for thinking you are looking at something that is reasonably accurate. In reality they were not even close. Very poor.

There is only one place the high is going at t192 and that is south unless their is some major undercutting from the Atlantic. t192 very underwhelming whens the 18z out lol.

Depending on the amplification of the ridge in the western Atlantic I wonder Is there going to be a new trend starting where we dismiss the easterly and look to the north/northwest for colder weather. Also does pertubation 20 hold some clues to the pattern change end of January on into February due to strat warming I wonder.

I was hoping it was the other way round with the 500 charts being wrong lol. Thanks.

UKMO looks like a dogs dinner with the 850 temps out of sinc with the H500 chart at t144.

T192 and -4c to -5c 850's across the country. Crazy Crazy run. BRRRRRRRRRRRRR