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cooling climate

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Everything posted by cooling climate

  1. cooling climate
    The latest GFS12z run strengthens the warming compared to recent runs with a renewed warming over the pole at the end of the run. Below. Taking the 30mb level of the stratosphere as an example you can clearly see the difference in temperature profile at present to what is forcast at the end of the run. It is often at this level on down that can have big implications on our tropospheric weather. Again this is just a forecast and a long way out.
  2. cooling climate
    I take it you have never looked at the archived charts on meteociel showing the winter 46/47 synoptics. The two winters are chalk and cheese not just the February although of course we do not know how this February will play out yet. Knowing what we do now about the stratosphere troposphere coupling there must have been strong stratosphere wave breaking and warming in Nov, Dec. and especially Jan of the that winter to produce the winter synoptics that occured. If we see the very strong warming that was forecast in the mid stratosphere appear in the days and weeks to come then the possibilites for synoptics, cold and snow of winters such as 47,56,82,85,86,87,and 91 would not be unrealistic. Without such a warming then not a chance although moderate warming and wave breaking can still deliver cold and snow to the UK.
  3. cooling climate
    I for one would put no more faith in the ECM ens than any other model or forecasts. A downward trend appeared a couple of weeks or so back and that fizzled out to nothing. Judging by the stratosphere forecasts from the GFS it has also all but fizzled out to nothing along with my expectations for cold for later this month. Talk about wind ups to offer something of a major change in the pipeline during such a winter we are having and then to back track like it has. It will be worth giving this another 24 hours and seeing what the ECM strat forecasts are tomorrow but I have a growing feeling this is a red herring. The Mogreps that have started to jump ship to a colder pattern may have done so when the ship has already sailed.I do not expect to see much in the way of excitment in the tomorrow although of course I hope I am wrong.
  4. cooling climate
    From what I have seen normally the geopotential height (GPH) is related to the strength of the warming seen in the stratosphere but this seem to me to be out of sinc on the GFS 12z run. As you can see from the charts below, the GPH charts show almost a split vortex at the 10mb, 30mb and even 100mb level where as the warming is mediocre to say the least. It may well be as Bluearmy says, that with a stretched and weakened vortex the warming and forcing need not be that strong for HLB's to form. Personaly I think the warming shown on the instant weather maps is wrong and should be stronger or the GPH charts are wrong. I also agree with other posters in that the talk of big pattern change etc and my forecasts of another Feb 91 were very premature although there may be enough amplitude from the warming forcast for a colder and hopefully wintrier pattern to take hold.
  5. cooling climate
    Although the stratosphere warming has backed off considerably from what it was showing 3 days ago when it looked as if we would see a possible SSW and pehaps major northern hemisphere pattern change. Their may well be strong enough wave breaking on our side of the pole to feed off the stronger wave breaking on the Siberian side to create weak but sufficient heights to the north/northeast with lower pressure to the south of the uk to produce a potentially wintry set up cold enough for lying snow, frost etc. This sort of set up could be far snowier IF it comes off than a very strong positive heights to the north driving weather fronts and lows further to the south.
  6. cooling climate
    Disappointing strat runs this morning especially from the GFS considering what we were looking at just 3 days ago. Rather than the vortex being to strong and harder to break down I think that the forecasted warming is now far weaker than first projected with the stronger wave 2 on our side of the pole very much diminished from what was originally forecast. The stratosphere forecasts on the Berlin site show the same with a stronger warming on the Siberian side and very little on our side. This may be linked to the MJO which has died since entering phase 5.
  7. cooling climate
    The ECM op run may look outlandish now but give it another few days and perhaps many will start to realize the potential that lies ahead.
  8. cooling climate
    The point could be argued I suppose that the UKMO at t144 is actually better than the ECM at t144 with the heights more into Greenland and the energy held back further west. Also with higher heights to feed off to the north east the t168 UKMO chart would probably be very similar to the ECM t168 but with the high a little further west and able to influence our weather more.
  9. cooling climate
    LOL I'm loving the consistency shown by the operational models output. The ECM tonight trying to make the most out of the weak heights to our north and northeast. Both the ECM and the GFS have toyed with what the ECM is showing tonight and it probably has a 50/50 chance of materializing.
  10. cooling climate
    After viewing the Berin strat charts of the ECM I have renewed confidence we will see the stronger warming coming back on the GFS runs. Hopefully the 12z run this afternoon will be a step in that direction.
  11. cooling climate
    If we get enough wave two amplification and warming the northern blocking and cold synoptics will come with the likely hood of a high pressure to the north/north east of the UK. This sort of pattern would be less reliant on timing as it is an actual pattern change rather than trying to find glimmers of cold in an otherwise zonal pattern where timing is crucial.
  12. cooling climate
    Seem odd the way the 0z GFS run showed the vortex almost sblits at the 10mb and 30mb levels yet the warming has downgraded in the last couple of days. Although the warming is only one part of the story. The 06z GFS just out and the vortex looks a lot more robust again although we are talking about the tail end of the output so changes expected. Good to see the warming coming into range on the ECM charts. Perhaps these charts will offer more consistency than what we have been seeing from the GFS. Recretos the NCEP R2 reanalysis site you mention I looked it up but you have to register an account citing business, institution, affiliations etc. Is this the correct link.
  13. cooling climate
    The GFS 0z stratosphere charts shown on instant weather maps seem odd to me this morning. The warming has down graded from where we were a couple of days ago and yet it is showing a sblit almost at the 10mb and 30mb level. With this to a lesser extent filtering all the way down to the 100mb level and troposphere hence the blocking to the north in the FI range of the model output. The ECM stratosphere charts now showing warming in the 10 day range at 10mb and 30mb levels. I feel a lot more optimistic again this morning regarding the last two weeks of January especially with the ECM model picking up on the warming and therefore would disregard the EC32 update at the present time. 10mb GPH chart. 30mb GPH chart 100mb GPH chart
  14. cooling climate
    For the last several runs now since yesterday mornings GFS 06z run that showed a big upgrade in the stratosphere warming during January the strength of the warming has been weakening run by run. I can only assume that the latest EC32 does not see a major strat warming taking place. The major warming shown yesterday would undoubtably have had a major impact on our weather and the weather pattern around the northern hemisphere where as now judging by what the stratosphere charts are showing from the latest 18z run, there would probably be very little impact.
  15. cooling climate
    I got that chart off of the Berlin site. Click on stratosphere analysis. This page tells you about the archive charts that they have but you have to register to see them. I tried but did not get anywhere. On the left of where it says to register there is an example and this is where I got the chart from. I would love to see the archived charts myself.
  16. cooling climate
    I would agree. A split or direct warming to the the north of the UK would be a bulls eye with regard to a cold pattern developing for Europe and the UK with a probable north then northeasterly airflow with Scandinavian heights developing. Below is the wave 1 warming in January 91 above the UK that almost certainly led to the bitter easterly that followed in February 91. The QBO was in negative phase which may have aided this or just delayed the propagation of the warming and subsequent pattern. You can see from the 10mb temperature chart very cold temps the other side of the pole (-80c)with temperatures our side of the pole up to -10c.
  17. cooling climate
    I can not see anything happening in the next 10/14 day timeframe apart from a slow cool down perhaps. Beyond the 17/18 of the month then yes we could well be in business.
  18. cooling climate
    It is also very much in line with what myself and several other posters especially those following the stratosphere forecasts could see happening during the last two weeks of January and hopefully onwards through February.
  19. cooling climate
    Judging by the charts you have shown Recretos it does look a + EAMT event but earlier strat charts at the 1mb level certainly gave the impression (to me anyway) that the warming was from the Tropics moving ne across America and on up across the pole to join with wave activity from eastern Asia. The 12z GFS run is now out and another take on the warming. I suppose until we get into the semi- reliable time frame t240 or so then we can expect these fluctuations in the runs.
  20. cooling climate
    A disappointing strat run from the GFS 06z run compared to yesterdays 06z run and probabley the weakest warming we have seen since it was first picked up several days ago. I wonder what is causing the volatility in the output, could it perhaps be related to solar activity since this is a top down warming which I think Recretos said can be traced back to the meosphere. I would need to refresh my memory on solar forcing on the Atmosphere but with solar activity on the increase again (M9.9 flare today and further strong activity expected over coming days) I wonder would this aid or subdue any potential warming. Anyhow as others have said until we see consistency in the stratosphere forecasts then nothing is certain.
  21. cooling climate
    At t144 on the GFS 06z run this is where we would like to have strong wave 2 activity which would build heights to our north as per Nick Sussex post earlier. Unfortunately without this the energy and lows to the nw will move east flattening the pattern as we have seen so often this winter. With wave 2 amplitude forecast to become much stronger during the second half of January we would be likely to see a different outcome should similar synoptics arise.
  22. cooling climate
    There is no reason not to think that the warming we saw on the 06z run will be back again on future output progressing nearer in time etc. The 06z this morning was similar to a progression in time from the 18z a couple of nights back which gives me another reason to believe it is very viable regardless of wheather the 12z ops run showed it or not. Having said this the warming is still there on the 12z but not as strong.
  23. cooling climate
    Could be a very cold FI coming up on the 12z run.
  24. cooling climate
    After this mornings relatively poor GFS 0z strat run I was going to make a post along the lines of say I would not be surprised to see the strat warming come back stronger and sooner over coming runs, and then along comes the 06z run and beat me to it. Wheather this is due to data issues who knows but what a run this morning. As I posted in the model thread I think along with many more knowledgeable posters on here that this would have major implications on the troposphere and weather for Europe and the UK. We would be in prime position for possible major Arctic outbreaks from the east and northeast. Looking forward to Recretos and others posts on this major upgrade in the warming to come.
  25. cooling climate
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