cooling climate

A better shape to the high on this run. I think we will see the cold a lot earlier on this run. Needless to say a great run coming up.

CPC charts for the AO are off the scale.

Charming, although I do understand what you and the other mods are saying. ECM extended ensembles in case it has not been mentioned are again very good. Apart from the control and a minority of others they are going for a protracted cold spell.

You couldn't ask for more could you, just over two weeks until Christmas and winter synoptics such as we are seeing . The details in the models for next week probably will not be realized until the weekend at the earliest but one thing is almost certain they will contain very cold and snowy weather. slightly off topic I know but I would not mind betting the Copenhagen summit was deliberately booked for mid December in the hope of the more usual mild set up that we have been accustomed to to streng- then their believes. That will teach them for trying to play another propaganda stunt which seriously looks like backfiring. Back to the models and their could well be some serious snowfalls to contend with next week as the parallel run while not quite as cold as the 06z operational is again a snow fest.

The model runs from now on in will be all about timing issues and small lows, fronts, shortwaves ahead of the oncoming very cold air from the continent that will decide how quickly the bitterly cold air will reach our shores. As GP said in another excellent post this morning this could very well be a very snowy spell ahead as well as being very cold.

As I said in a earlier post UKMO post t144 would lead to a very cold east northeasterly, not that I think its correct but as GP pointed out in his post this morning with that much of a block to the north any lows coming in from the sw are going to undercut. The - AO rules this upcoming pattern and with the AMM (atmospheric angular momentum) dropping it looks like it could very well be a long and wintry spell of weather. Because of the synoptic pattern and its possible implications are something we have been dreaming about for years and years is almost certainly about to take place it is making it very hard for some people to take in.(also past failures) The evidence in the models etc is totally overwhelming now that we are heading for a wintry spell of weather to rival perhaps 1981 in cold and snow and dare I say even surpass it. A very cold and wintry spell of weather is a lock as far as I am concerned.

An excellent run from the UKMO with post t144 bitterly cold air to flood the country. The ECM should be an excellent run this morning making the arrival of winter for next week a lock.

One last post from me, the cpc charts are very bullish about a northeasterly airflow over nw Europe in the 6-14 day frame. In their synoptic discussions they also talk about a - NAO for next fortnight. Something to chew on, night all.

The ECM and the UKMO look almost identical with the 12z and 18z GFS operational runs cutting off the link to the heights further north because of its obsession with shortwaves. The ECM 0z operational was the same but it now looks to have ditched this idea and is siding with the rock solid UKMO. I can see credit being given to the Euro models with the GFS backtracking so to speak to a more east northeasterly pattern tomorrow, but for me the GFS picked this much colder pattern up way before the Euro models.

The ECM extended ensembles look excellent, even the mean runs below 0c for a week.

The way I look at it is the ECM run this morning was at odds with the main cluster of ensemble members, the GFS was also at odds with the majority of ensemble members. I bet a pound to a pinch of salt that the ECM will be within the cluster of ensemble members tonight and that the GFS operational will come back on board tonight or by the morning. A big freeze is on its way of that I am sure.

Couldn't agree more well put. I said a couple of days ago that this spell could equal something we have not seen in December since 81 that is how much potential there is. The fact that we could be looking at prolonged very cold and possibly snowy weather leaves people in doubt because they feel that we just don't get weather like that any more, but that is about to change.

ECM t168 true beast from the east on its way.

ECM at t144 excellent.

ECM at t96 and better heights to the north. This should be a much better run than the 0z.

Very good UKMO t 120. Big difference t96 -120 between the UKMO and the GFS. Much better heights on the UKMO. I see t144 is out and it is a cracking run. I would gladly take it to the bank. As I said in a post earlier the GFS operational probably overdosing on the shortwaves etc which as we know it can be prone to do.

UKMO at t96 is a peach.

It looks to me that the every shortwave and piece of vortex energy was thrown at the block on the 06z GFS run and still we end up with a 1050 proper Greenland high. The cold on this run is delayed by three days or so and is not quite as potent never the less its still very cold and possibly exceptionally snowy. The 06z operational may have overdone the lows etc going into the block and therefor I think this run will come out on the milder side of the ensembles especially early on.

Everything points the way to a very much colder and wintry spell of weather except for one ECM operational run. Most of its ensembles support a very cold pattern occurring yet some still have doubts. The evidence if you like is overwhelming for this to happen. I know people are being cautious because of past failings but I am pretty sure this set up is completely different to those with a strong -AO developing which is going to make all the difference. Winter is literally just around the corner.

Only out to t114 but it looks like another cracking run to come. With the heights over and above Svalbard (-AO) the shortwaves will have little impact other than to aid in CAA where as without the -AO the ridge would probably have collapsed.

Well I have to say I am rather surprised that the best performing model generally, is having the most problems and inconsistencies adjusting to the major pattern change underway. I suppose it just goes to show it is not infallible. Mind you the ECM ensembles are excellent again and I think another great day of model watching is in store.

That looks very similar to the GFS etc.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1 You can view the parallel run from this link. It is actually showing the paralle run now.

Excellent write up GP, cheers. Reinforcing my own beliefs along with what JH wrote earlier we could well be on the cusp of something not seen in December in this country since 81. Another couple of days though to be certain. Excellent extended ECM ensembles as well I see.

Even if we were to get a half way house between the GFS and the ECM we would still be in for a very cold and quite possibly wintry spell ( at least several days). The way I see it is that even if the shortwave does develop at t120( I am not sure it will) because we have the Arctic high to back up the ridging the shortwave would not have the effect that it normally does, IE collapse the block. The Arctic high is dictating the whole pattern but yes I agree another two days just to put it beyond doubt.