cooling climate

You may well be right but at the same time I could quite easily see the models reverting back to yesterdays outputs. The PV is still modeled to split and the main area to fall into Canada, the difference this morning is that the heights over the Arctic are now being modeled to fall into Russia rather than come south over Greenland and Svalbard area. I think this is still very much up in the air so to speak and could go either way.

Again the vortex has split nicely allowing the height rises in the Arctic to push south building heights to our north, and bingo.

Yes this is what I was alluding to in a post earlier with a segment of the vortex left over in Russia and the rest migrating to Canada (Hudson bay area). If this happens then game on I think.

One thing both models( GFS and ECM) agree on is the main part of the vortex transferring over to the Hudson bay area with a -A0 developing in the high Arctic. This would gel with the idea of heights increasing to out north and northeast.

ECM comes up with another scenario later in the run. It looks good but can you trust it, probably not.

At least this run should lift the spirits in here, even if its only temporary. The rest of the run from t240 onwards should be a corker. The main difference with this run is that it has moved the main part of the vortex over to the north of Hudson Bay and Baffin Island, allowing better heights to the north of us.

Bump.

It looks like a heatwave is forcast to take place at the 1pa level. This almost certainly relates to a wave breaking event do to the very large ridge over the gulf of Alaska that will pump warm subtropical air into the system.

The 06z at t144 has much better heights and ridging across the pole with the main vortex held back over Russia. This has the potential to be a very good run. How accurate it is I don't know.

The positive signs of height rises to the north seem to have imploded somewhat this morning, the reason for this seems to be how long the ridge thrown across from Canada can build heights to our north and over Greenland before being cut off by a cross polar vortex from Russia into Canada. Things could still change of course but for now it looks like the cold will stay locked up in the north.

I know its computer generated at the weekends but.... http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

IF and yes its a big if but if the models are underestimating the pressure rises to the north then the jet will be further south with the UK in the cold zone.

72h 96h 120h 144h 168h 192h 216h 240h function changeImage(link,image) { linklink='http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/' + link; document.getElementById('image').src = image }

ECM at t216 looks excellent. Well on meteociel anyway.

ECM at t144 could get very interesting with a massive pna ridge 1050 showing on the n/hemisphere meteociel charts.

That parallel run would be a cracking start to winter if it verified. Another two of three days and we could well be seeing a lot more runs like this.

Might be to mild but 3.4c for me please.

Just wondering if anybody else is experiencing problems logging onto the ECM stratosphere site.

I think the TAO maps are best for monitoring what is happening temperature wise in the enso regions.

The models are forcasting a large ridge over northwest America in about 6-8 days time and I feel quite confident this is what the ECM stratosphere models are seeing. This should cause the mountain torques to spike.

This could very well be caused by wave breaking in the upper stratosphere brought on by a strong positive +pna signal perhaps which would force warmer subtropical air into the stratosphere causing a rapid ssw (sudden stratospheric warming ) event.

Great work GP. Thanks for the time and effort that must have been put in for another top class presentation. It will be very interesting as we go through the season to see how close it varifies (I'm going colder myself), but regardless of this, great work.

My punt for the winter 2009/10 I think northern blocking will be very prevelant this winter which will over ride other teleconnets and produce very cold wintry weather during the upcoming season. Although the emphasis will be of cold and at times very cold (perhaps bitterly cold) weather especially as we go into the latter half of January and February there will be milder spells perhaps very mild. The GWO and GLAMM have I believe been kept in a week state due to the blocking over canada which which is linked to the high ozone levels which are moving eastward and also huge high pressure cell that has built over Russia this fall. Blocking highs can also produce Stratospheric warmings but at a much slower rate than Rosby waves or planetary waves. When the AO goes negative I think this will be the main teleconnecter and will dictate the pattern that combined with MJO movement perhaps one more moderate WWB will definately put nw Europe and Eastern US in the cold zone. This winter could also turn out with much above average snowfall as with pressure low to the east and the STJ mixing it up with the southerly tracking low pressure systems.

Post of the year

Speedy recovery C. Miss your balanced informative analysis. http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/ecmwfpv?alert=1&level=400&forecast=f192 To me this shows blocking over Greenland or an increase in heights anyway and low pressure over the UK and western Europe. Temperatures seem to on the rise again at 30mb. Temperature over the North Pole