cooling climate

I posted this in the model thread this morning and it has been buried, I hope its alright to put it in this thread as it is of course related to lrf. Stratus Group: Members Posts: 124 Joined: 11-November 09 Gender:Male Location:hertfordshire Posted Today, 09:13 In case this has not been posted before I think this is a excellent link that goes some way to explaining the the relationships between the GWO, AAM and MJO. It helped me to get a better understanding on these complex teleconnects. http://www.esrl.noaa...maproom_new.htm Plus this one from Ed Berry. http://www.deepconve...11HPC_Berry.ppt

The paralle run shows what I was referring to in my last post and a very very cold prospect ensues for the Europe and the UK. I think most cold and snow lovers would be happy with that outcome. The trend to cold is growing.

I may well be wrong but I fully expect the 06z operational run of the GFS to be a mild outlier towards the end of the run. I just could not see the high sinking to the south like that, there would almost certainly I think be cyclonegenisis underneath the high. It is however deep FI at that range and must be taken with the proverbial amount of salt, however the trend again is excellent for cold prospects.

I copied this from a post on solar cycle 24. This is what SIDC had to say about the solar wind etc. very interesting times indeed. SIDC today: COMMENT: Except for a small magnetic dipole just passing the East limb in Extreme-UV images (probably a plage without sunspots), the Sun is featureless and is expected to remain inactive. Since early today, the solar wind has virtually vanished, reaching exceptionally low speeds (now at 250 km/s), low densities (< 0.1 electron/cm3) and low plasma temperatures (< 10⁴ K), based on ACE and SOHO/MTOF data. This leads also to exceptionally quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp=0 at many ground stations). Those extremely quiet conditions certainly deserve special study. Only a weak solar wind stream expected tomorrow or on Dec.5 could restore more normal conditions, but just inducing temporarily unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

In case this has not been posted before I think this is a excellent link that goes some way to explaining the the relationships between the GWO, AAM and MJO. It helped me to get a better understanding on these complex teleconnects. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gwo_maproom_new.htm Plus this one from Ed Berry. http://www.deepconvection.com/11HPC/11HPC_Berry.ppt

I think the extended ensembles of the 0z ECM run will show a very cold pattern developing. plenty of positives to take from this mornings runs for a much colder pattern to develop from around mid month onwards.

The GWO although it encompasses the MJO to a certain degree and is affected by the AAM can I think be over ridden or more accurately steered into a more favorable phase by a more powerful developing teleconnection such as a tanking - AO perhaps. Really I suppose what I am saying is they are all interconnected and one will affect the other.

Nice FI on the way I think.

Very encouraged by the ECM tonight again looking forward to the extended ensembles. Decent heights over the high Arctic which seem to be heading our way although beginning to think we may have to look more to the north, northeast rather than east for the upcoming cold spell.

Here's to a good afternoon of model watching...hopefully.

Bump.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images/spacer.gifhttp://www.spaceweather.com/images/spacer.gifSPACE WEATHERCurrent conditions http://www.spaceweather.com/images/spacer.gifSolar wind speed: 241.4 km/sec density: 0.1 protons/cm3 explanation | more data Updated: Today at 0843 UTC I wonder what the lowest official reading is.

Model output this morning is a lot more positive with height rises to our north which as Steve Murr, myself and one or two others have said is the first and most important stage to a much colder pattern for the UK and Europe. UKMO is actually my favorite with a niece clean split of the vortex allowing heights to readily build to the north. Stage two of where the main heights will build will develop over the next couple of days or so and the rest is just detail which will take several days perhaps for the models to work out. Hopefully the models will continue this positive trend towards a much much colder outlook.

Solar wind speed presently at the lowest I have seen it..... Current conditions Solar wind speed: 253.6 km/sec

T192 and the 06z has the potential to be a very good run. Here's hoping. Nope.

If a cold (very cold ) pattern does lock in I think we could be looking at quite a protracted cold spell of weather, but as they say one step at a time.

The ECM would have been a good run had it continued I think. I think the ensembles will continue to trend colder tonight as well.

From what I could see on the operational n/hemisphere charts as the vortex split small short waves were pulled back over to the Russian side this stopped the building of heights to the n/e of the Russian vortex and also stopped the vortex moving westward. The operational may or may not be right, at this range detail like that is sketchy at best. My money is still odds on for a real taste of winter to come.

I would say that the vortex split is ideally suited for our location. if there is any residual energy from the vortex left on the western side of Greenland then I think a more east northeasterly pattern will emerge. One thing we don't want to see as I have mentioned in the model thread is any energy left on our side of the pole near Svalbard if you like, as this will scupper any height rises to our north. I think this is classic rosby wave dispersal (wave breaking ) in the stratosphere caused by the pna ridge.

For the last few days I have tended to view the GFS runs on meteociel n/hemisphere charts. This way you can view the vortex disruption. With heights over Alaska cutting through the split vortices's and helping to build heights to our north and northeast, I think this puts us 60% on the way towards a memorable cold spell of weather. One thing we don't want to see is a piece of energy from the vortex left trailing over our side of the pole which would scupper any height rises to the north and northeast. Personally I am optimistic of a very cold spell of weather on the way with the wind flow being more east, northeast rather than north or northeast.

The ECM at t240 is not that different to the GFS at 240 in the fact that it shows pressure building to the north. It will be interesting to see the ensembles.

You get my vote. From the 10th onwards I think things are likely to get very interesting indeed.

parallel looks fine to me. Here's to a cracking 12z ECM run. With a split vortex forcast and a tanking -AO,plus the MJO still progressing towards the date line, plenty to be optimistic about I think.

Apart from tomorrow temperatures look very suppressed on the 06z GFS run. As the models get to grips with a -AO pattern developing over the Arctic I still think a much colder pattern developing in the 8 to 10 day range is a distinct possibility.