kev238

The nae at 48 hours paints a mixed picture. East midlands into south east England and east anglia have a band of snow pushing through. However, there is not a lot of margin for error with any further correction eastwards.

Looking through everything the gfs makes the most of the warm sector and the incursion of higher dew points. Even then north and east of Birmingham dew points remain at freezing or below. Therefore, I would say the further north east in the midlands area the better the chances of decent snow from the second band and consequently the opposite the further south west in the region you are. For the first band it will be more a case of how much precipitation there is. Although there is also a question about amounts with the second band! So, basically complete confusion but further north and east in the regio you are, the better things may ( emphasis on may) turn out.

Yes definitely an improvement from the ECM which was important as it is the top model according to verification stats when averaged over a Long period of time. As someone alluded to the spaghetti plots the met office posted render detail beyond day four or so as very sketchy and open to change!

Yes will agree the best thing will be the net weather radar over next couple of days as it often shows huge variations in precipitation rates over few miles, depending on local topography. To be honest, I don't have a clue what will happen on sunday night and monday. I think eastern midlands area look good overall but staffordshire could do well tomorrow night!

Well you are entitled to your opinion, as I am. Read Ian fergussons posts and it is the nae that they use for their guidance, he was speaking about it earlier, and yes they do modify it, but I think I will stick with the opinions from the professionals that it is as good a guidance as you can get for modelling precipitation in the uk.

A poor model; best go and tell the met office you think that then, given they use that to form basis for their forecasts as well as the bbc. Guess you will have all the empirical data to back up these assertions that it is such a poor model, and suggest an alternative that they can use immediately.

I feel slightly more uneasy this evening for snow, not quite as confident as I was this morning with regards to Monday. My location, Nottingham, looks to be in a good position, but I am not quite sure. Nae guidance will be best place to go with Monday getting extra clarity by this evening, or tomorrow morning.

ECM will be very interesting this evening. You would think it would shift back towards gfs and ukmo a little considering these 2 have maintained their outlook for the end of the week. I am fascinated by the next 48 hours and how it will turn out for the country and where the snow rain line will be and how much precipitation will occur, when and where it will occur. Steve murr mentions that the ukmo model shows loads of precipitation for the east and south east in the range 48-60 hours, midday Monday to the start of Tuesday morning and it def does when you look on the meteo site.

Well I was feeling quite confident that the 2nd band would deliver for the east midlands, whilst having less confidence in the first band. Perhaps I will reverse my thoughts and pin hopes on the first band instead. The gfs shows a better undercut at 126 hours.. Be interesting to see what else happens this evening with the other models. I wonder whether the 2nd band might involve an intensification down extreme eastern parts by passing other areas rather than being a period of precipitation passing through the whole country. Fergie mentions 30% prob no more than 2cm of snow for England. However, that does still leave 70% chnce of more than 2cm. At least even 2cm is better than this winter for most areas this winter.

Must admit I was expecting to see more evidence of a new band on the 48 hours nae, pushing in from the north west. It looks like the eastern side is intensifying up north though.

My understanding is that the first band is a separate band that dies as it spreads south east, with a second spreading from the north that should come into range of nae this afternoon at plus 48 hours. Certainly BBC forecast shows 2 separate bands The 6z nae showed upe to 6 am on Monday so the 12 z nae brings us up to midday on Monday so should see more info on the second more substantial band of snow; at least thatnis what I am expecting to see

My comments were for Monday; should have clarified. The met office yellow warning for Monday clearly shows how borderline it is. Gloucestershire area has a better chance on Monday, but it's characteristics are more central England than west country. I don't have a clue for after that! Prob going to be a now casting event!

Perhaps you should listen to what the met office is saying then, as at no point have they ever stated anyone would be snowbound by today. Furthermore, this region has never appeared to be in the forefront of snow predictions by the professionals at the met office for Sunday night or Monday. Yes there is a chance, but it is not a definite and even with that chance, amounts will be small for the south west.

Yes Northampton will prob do even better that Nottingham, Leicester and derby as i think it will intensify as it heads south east as there clearly is a circulation forming later in the day. It does look like two bands then; a first band tomorrow night and a second from around lunchtime. Personally I am a bit suspicious of the first band, as some of the models don't make as much of it as the nae but confident in the second band. West midlanders and those on the borders between wales and England; really really difficult to pin point. Could come down to local elevation and precipitation intensity

Of course the ECM can sometimes be the second or third model at times, much like man utd can be beaten at times, however averaged over a long period of time it is the top model, and most people on here will state that and were stating it when we had the issue of the shortwave and where it was going to go. My major point is that if the big three are not singing from the same sheet then don't discount anything. Surely that is fair enough?

Fair enough that the ECM seems to be a milder run. However, it has shown something similar last couple of runs and so def cannot be discounted. I hope it is wrong as love the cold weather with snow on the ground!! My main point is that when the models show vastly different outcomes, neither is likely to be correct and a blend will occur, or something completely new.

The forecast has been spot on for the midlands today. Quite clearly it stated wintry mix in the areas that are experiencing some slight snowfall and sleet. Also, said it would struggled to settle which is was has happened as well. Sunday night looks good for many areas as does monday.. Slight doubt for the western side of the region. It could work out very similar to what happened in February. The east midlands look well placed at the moment and I would be shocked if Nottingham, derby and Leicester did not have a couple of inches on the ground by the end of Monday.

ECM should def not be disregarded in my opinion, even if it does not match the background signals. It is the best performing model if you look over long periods of time. Much as gfs could not be discounted when it was showing something different a few days ago. Put simply, when there is a divergence with the big three proceed with caution. This means that up to Tuesday seems fairly clear, after that less so. Luckily with have snow in the reliable, for a lathe percentage of the country.

Yes; this is a shift towards the ECM from gfs but not quite there. However, I would suggest people focus on the here and now; well the next 72 hours. There should be plenty of convective showers in the east on tuesdaynand Wednesday as well with minus 10 or so uppers going over a warm sea. I am not sure how far in land these will get though.

I think that the snow event is quite nailed on in terms of delivering on monday as well. Am always dubious about low pressures sliding in from the south as they often don't push as far north as models suggest, this shortwave dropping through from the north west is nailed on now in my opinion.

I think far from the snow petering out as it hits the south east, the snow will intensify as a circulation develops to the south east. I think you guys in the south east and east anglia will do best, with the east midlands and north east following close behind. Other areas look more marginal or uncertain. Of course, on the day amounts will vary as precipitation does wax and wane as can often be seen on the excellent net weather radar.

Just a few points: The ECM is the model that verifies best in the day 5 range. Therefore, it's version for later next week is a worry; however it is a little by itself so I am not going to draw too many conclusions. The fact is the models all show very different scenarios, even the ones that stay cold, therefore they are all likely to be wrong and there will prob be a blend of solutions. Any how, people should focus on the here and now with monday looking like a snowy day for much of the uk. Also The eye in the sky is correct in saying the snow has not even reached the time frame where it would have reached the south east on the nae.

I think there should be a high degree of confidence on events up to and including Monday... Although the snow/ rain line will be difficult to pin point. I think it could be very similar to the snow event last february. After that, things diverge but continuing cold must be the form horse for the rest of the week. Snowfall chances will increase the further east you are with Kent looking in a prime position!

I think this precipitation is well modelled as it is passing southeast... I am always dubious when it comes to precipitation when pushing in from the south from sliding low pressures but this looks well modelled by all now in the 72 hour range

There Are differences but there always have been, the difference now is that we seem to have agreement on Monday at least and the shortwave dropping south east. There can be no confidence in any outcome post monday in my opinion as everything is varying so much. Mondays potential should keep us interested in the mean time I think I prefer the gfs now door my location but it is very risky. ECM is great but ends rather benign. Ukmo is a bit of a no mans land